Leaving the negotiations issues aside for a moment, I think there is an interesting thing going on here I didn't see coming.
The supply and damand for Pilots between the regionals and majors is an odd thing. The regionals have mostly all now secured massively better contracts. Hitting $200/ hour is a huge accomplishment for them. But at the big airlines there's no shortage of applicants and thus no pressure on management to up the pay. At least not much or not yet.
Frontier has increased first year pay twice and started paying for hotels during new hire training. That has seemed to help them fill classes, which they are. Now that they are hitting their hiring targets, the pressure is off of management... for now.
It's an odd situation to see the regionls make significant progress in closing the pay gap, and maybe a much more difficult road ahead for the big airlines?
Taking it another step down the road, airlines like Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit, Avelo and Breeze will all see continued attrition to the big 3. That attrition will be the only real reason for those management teams to roll over and offer up pay raises. Could we see the LCCs catch up to the big 3? The big 3 won't have the attrition problem every other airline will have. Where's the motivation for United and Delta to give a big pay raise? Frontier on the other hand is trying to triple in size and is going to need a lot of pilots to do it.
Interested to see what happens, but the dynamics of the industry have changed a lot since the last round.