Just going on pure speculation... I think you would have to look at when each contract expires as well as the major players. Plus the fact that NW owns Mesaba and Delta owns Comair. Could there be a forced merger of regionals? Not sure if thats possible but its a thought, both fly the CRJ and with the cost of fuel the SF340 is a plus for XJ. Skywest and ASA have the largest combo of flying in the DL network and from what it seems DL is happy with their performance in the network. RAH has the presence in the Embraer in CVG and ATL, and Pinnacle is flying the CRJ900 out of ATL. On the NW side Pinnacle flies a ton flying the CRJs plus what seems interesting (someone posted a few weeks ago they have some Q400s on order). And of course there is always MESA...
Just seems with the cost of fuel, who knows NW and DL might consolidate XJ and Comair (just my opinion and guess) If will come down to who performs the best and is the most cost effective. Really just like my opinion it could go various ways and could change, plus contracts come into play.
But if delta wanted to cut its regionals from 8 to 4 before a merger, post merger it would add mesaba into that total....
My guess to a FINAL 4 of regionals in a NWA/Delta merger... would be
- Skywest/ASA
- Mesaba and Comair (who knows they might combine since "Delta" would own both)
- Pinnacle
- Republic
While eventually booting Mesa once the contract is up
Besides it would take prob 5 - 8 years before a pure consolidation would occur and things would be running efficiently... so those regionals listed might have different contracts, and bases of operations.
But thats just a guess... this is new territory under the current market and cost of oil and who knows the merger may never get approved