Originally Posted by
cma2407
Just curious...but any idea how much all this movement is going to cost?
For example: -10 Capt moves to -11 Capt, who if they play the excess game, on down, bumps junior Capt down to -11 FO. The jr. FO, if excessed, bumps a 727 Capt, who bumps to say, 727 or Airbus FO, who then boots another guy down to S/O.
That's 5 new, full length training slots--that result from one upgrade. Or approximately, 1 full year of paying 5 guys to sit in training. Rough estimate, but figure 3/4 of a million $ in salaries alone, training costs not included...without generating a dime in revenue.
Add training costs, and each upgrade, with the excess ripple effect could ultimately reach $1 million a pop. And not a box has moved.
Maybe I'm off here, but from what I see jotting this down with my crayons and pad of paper, one thing keep happening:
I always end up using the red one last...
You are correct that this could cause a trickle down effect, but it will not play out this way in my opinion. The DC10 and 727 CA that are to be excessed will almost all certainly bid WB CA on the MD11 or Bus. They are converting the remaining DC10's to MD10's and we are getting a few more MD11's. In theory most of the 10 CA's would prefer the MD based on similarity. We are in effect transferring guys into those seats. The Company will not put 104 DC10 CA's into ITU for the MD11 immediately, rather they will siphon off as they can and park DC10's. They will eat the short term increased manning levels rather than cascade.
These excesses could be viewed as "vacancies" in the MD11 as well as the 757, they just need to lock out the guys in the MD11 and A300 that would otherwise have had the seniority to bid a CA slot. Going from MD11 or A300 FO to WB CA, even if you are senior to 90% of the Captains in the seat now, will not occur until we get vacancy postings in those A/C. It is safe to say there will be NO secondary slots in the WB CA seat !
I do not see them incurring the training disaster, increased cost that is.