Originally Posted by Grumpyaviator

half the currency printed in the US since 1776 was printed during covid. Now we’re in a period of quantitative tightening, ie. taking currency out of circulation, $1t so far.

interest rates need to come down, even though they’re historically low. this usually is accompanied by a correction in the stock market and increased unemployment. if it also is associated with deflation unemployment Will generally reach 10%.

there has been a significant increase in houses for sale this fall, inventory never goes up in the fall with exception of 2007.

the average home price is ~$450k which requires an income of $120k, which means only 8% of households can afford the average home.

it cost 50% more per month to own than rent, and rents have fallen to the point they can’t support the average mortgage.

I don’t believe this can continue and imo we’re due for a housing correction, hopefully sooner than later.

research past cycles of the economy, inflation, interest rates, housing and employment and you can see where we are statistically.

the wild card is how far will the government go to artificially affect the inevitable. I believe the more they do the bigger the correction will be when it finally happens.