When reading Pprune please keep in mind that most of the people that post on there are not American or coming from U.S. companies. Their perspective is very different. I almost responded on that thread, but thought better of it. It's always a waste of time to argue against them with facts. The guy who states 10 years to upgrade is way off in his math ability.
1500 pilots today, 2500 pilots 5 years from now = upgrade in 5 years. That is based on an attrition rate of 50 pilots per year. A pilot hired at #1500 today will be #1250 in 5 years, exactly half way up the list. I discount the DECs because there are almost an equal number of very senior permanent First Officers and Cadet Pilots that tends to balance out the equation. The only wild card is if more DECs are hired beyond the stated number this year. Flight Ops management is promising not to do so beyond the approximately 100 B777 DECs. Obviously a war with Iran, global recession, massive outbreak of bird flu, etc could change things, but the current plan is to be at 2500 pilots in about 5 years time. EKs plans have almost always been increased, not decreased.
Typhoonpilot