Good question. I will think it over and get a better handle on it. But, for now, this is my best WAG.
500 overmanned is more accurate. Depends on how you look at it. The schedule could be covered by 500 fewer pilots when you consider the excess out of the DC10.
But when the 777 bid comes and retirements start again (Some guys will actually retire in '09 and '10 bumping against 65) '09 might be when hiring begins again. But it could be '10 under a certain set of conditions.
Might get some newhires to HKG this year. Better info will be available after the bid closes 5 June.
I'm awfully curious what was given to you in the PM...