Originally Posted by
ginntonic
Rough math from the F9 10-K available on the SEC website.
2025 we used 376M gallons of fuel at a cost of $929M.
229M shares outstanding.
Estimate 94M gallons used for 1Q26 (376M/4). At 2025 prices that's around $232M.
Now, push that price 60%. We go to $3.95 a gallon and it costs us $371M. So around $109M extra.
Divide the extra by shares outstanding and that's an $0.61 hit per share against the negative 1Q projection they already put out there.
10-K also said they aren't using a fuel hedge program.
Unless the prices settle soon, I fear a bloody 1Q.
I got $ 0.48 (but it's still a big hit)....
OT: What's up w/ our ground mishaps??? From the Mar 6 update:
As of February 28, our Aircraft Ground Damage (AGD) rate is 80% higher than goal at 4.54 per 10,000 departures on a goal of 2.50 per 10,000 departures.