Originally Posted by
BURflyer
They won't for at least another year. However now gas prices are higher so it's an issue that airlines have never faced before it's difficult to predict how they will react. Plus from what I've heard around the local airport and in general around the industry, commercial training is at an all time low because wages and QOL continue to go down. We could face a pilot shortage crisis maybe 5 to 10 years from now.
I wouldn't say that the airlines have
never faced high fuel prices. (1980-1981 comes to mind—the imminent death of the business was predicted, and the pundits were wrong again.)
HOWEVER, the full impact of high fuel costs is yet to be fully felt, in my opinion. And parking 50-seat RJs will probably continue unless and until oil goes to <$100/barrel.
The entire "50 seat regional jet" thing is sort of stupid in my opinion. Cool airplane? Yes. Quite nifty. BUT...Most of the missions that the airplane flies can be much more efficiently and effectively handled with a Q400 or other turboprop airplane; my guess is that Bombardier won't be able to build the new Dashes fast enough if fuel stays high, and that 50-seat capacity reductions for Regional Jets will continue.
(On that note, one thing I find utterly amazing is how much domestic flying that SkyWest and friends do that the mainline companies used to do themselves. Something about "giving away the store" comes to mind with respect to scope and QOL...)
This is my best guess...although I'd like to think it's based on something better than most airline analysts, who have never seen an airplane before.
