Originally Posted by
wiggy
Is it possible, Carl, that some of those "among others" you cite with Bloch's "roulette wheel" statement just as likely refer to expectations of future advancement due to retirements? IOW, a mid seniority NW pilot claiming: "All the NW retirements will allow me to be very senior in 5-7-10 years". You would be hard-pressed to justify a negative answer to that question.
That could very well be the case, which is why I added the term "among other things." I don't believe it
is the case however, because attrition is a statistical certainty, unlike aircraft orders or (my personal favorite) the latest business plan. Arbitrations are a lot like criminal and civil trials. 98% of what the lawyers bring is pure BS and opinion, with 2% actual facts and irrefutable statistics. When those 2% items come along, judges listen. And by the way, the only guy that used the term "will" with regard to his future, was a DAL guy. I've heard no NWA guy say anything similar.
Originally Posted by
wiggy
On a more general note, I can tell you that 210 DL pilots in the top 1400 positions simply will not "fly".
Again, the arbitrators probably aren't going to give much weight to your argument of DOH "simply not flying."
Originally Posted by
wiggy
And I find it hard to believe 2 of 3 arbitrators would disagree, given the uncertainties of the future of this industry.
You could be right, but you could very well be wrong. DAL's proposal that was based on future growth estimates is definitely a "vagary." DAL's proposal was also based on a 3 day trashing of NWA as being a dead airline with no prospects except going backwards. The arbitrators clearly thought those 3 days were wasted by the DAL team, when he called this a merger of equals.
Originally Posted by
wiggy
Now, we can speculate on the gargantuan and detailed fences that you might think would assuage our concerns, but they won't, DL brings 1100 senior international widebody captain positions to the merger, NW brings 500. 210 of 1400 is extreme, to put it mildly, regardless of what your blue and red charts show.
The blue and red charts are irrefutable. The arbitrators will give them great weight - and that goes for BOTH proposals. Under the DAL proposal the charts show nothing but DAL at the top, now and in the future. Under the NWA proposal, lots of NWA guys start at the top but they don't stay very long before the charts show very few NWA at the top after 10 years.
Either way, DAL guys are at the top. That's just the way the demographic works.
Originally Posted by
wiggy
DL has not put on their rebuttal case yet, (and they have full access to all the details of the NW proposal, and I don't) I would imagine they will find many uncontemplated (by us) faults w/NW's proposal.
Your lawyers are very good, in my opinion. I'm sure they'll put on a great rebuttal, but they will not punch a single hole in the blue/red chart. If they could have, they would have during their cross examination of our guys who presented the chart.
Originally Posted by
wiggy
Speculating on ever-increasing-in-complexity DOH fences, (which ultimately leads to an actual non-merger of pilot groups, to keep everyone safe) is futile.
It's not speculation, and it's not futile. There is a 50% chance that the NWA proposal will be adopted. Just as there is a 50% chance the DAL proposal will be adopted. If you can't sleep at night with that reality sharing your slumber, then continue to live in denial.
Originally Posted by
wiggy
The final solution, whether negotiated or arbitrated, will expose both pilot groups equally to those "vagaries of the future".
I agree with you 100%.
Originally Posted by
wiggy
DOH w/fences does not expose both groups equally to that risk.
With the 10 year fence, it comes far far closer than the DAL proposal. The DAL proposal is all reward to DAL pilots and all risk to NWA pilots.
Carl