Originally Posted by
bull
Please don't pummel me!! I am looking for some advice. I am a military instructor pilot getting out of active duty. I have a possibity of taking 100K bonus and being locked in for 4 more years. My dilemma is that I don't want to miss a hiring wave that may or may not happen in the next couple of years, if I am locked into a committment. Obviously, on the other side, I will have a steady paycheck for the next 4 years. My question is, do you guys, in the majors see me missing a big hiring wave if I took the bonus for 4 years? I won't be able to shorten the 4 years. Thanks in advance for all your inputs.
Bull, let me take this a different direction. Let me ask you three questions, First: Is your intent to leave at the first good opportunity (i.e. you don't want to do 20 on AD)? Second: Are you confident you can get a job in the reserves? Third: What are your expenses (Family, working spouse, etc.)? My point is that if you're getting out and can get a reserve job, sooner is usually better than later. There was an excellent post taken from Morningstar a few months ago that showed a very strong correlation between unemployment and capacity and yields in the airline industry (which lags unemployment, both up and down by roughly eight months). If you believe unemployment will peak late this year or early next year, it would lead you to believe there will be recalls within the next two years at most carriers and hiring at some. As a military guy, you will stand out more than you would have 20 years ago, making you an attractive candidate. However, there are a lot of furloughs out there. That still means a couple of years as a reserve bum, but you can make decent money in the reserves. However, this industry is a crap shoot and you may not stay employed, even if you get hired.
Long story short: Evaluate your need for steady income given your personal situation. Don't even think about getting out now to go fly for the airlines unless you're getting a flying gig in the reserves. Understand the tenuous nature of the industry. I made an unsuccessful, half hearted attempt to get out of orders in the early 90's when all of my contemporaries were getting hired at the majors. I wound up staying employed with a good paycheck until the mid-late 90s and most of them wound up furloughed. Very similar to your situation. Good luck.