Thank you. Obviously the big 3 will not have any problem filling classes, but how many spots will be reserved for pilots from Mesa and the like? At least at American somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-75% of new hire slots are already spoken for. The rest goes to military and a handful of lucky pilots from across the industry.
AA, UAL and DAL have people lined up for miles to fly for them, but the shortage at their regionals is already here, hence the bonuses and hiring agreements. It will get worse, and when it does it's a logical step to make service at a regional of their choosing mandatory prior to sitting in the right seat of the mainline. Will it be 100%? Probably not, but pretty close to it in the future is my guess.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Actually a car without an engine is a good restoration project for me


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

you are wrong for saying I'm wrong when I tell someone else that they are wrong for something everyone doesn't get....

My crystal ball is better than yours because I bought mine at Spencer gifts and not only is it a crystal ball, if you plug it in it glows plasma arcs to the glass and will follow your touch... That makes me the king of all future knowledge and understanding!!!

Great news for AWAC. Glad to see this legacy regional pilot group with a new CPA.

The only thing in this news that raised my eyebrows was the continuation of operating the -200, an airframe that has been around since 1995. I was hoping to see the news mentioning a newer fleet of -700s or -900s, especially into 2023. Maybe that is in the fine print somewhere.

Again, nice to see this for the AWAC pilots and FAs.

LH

United is scoped out on 70/76 seaters. Someone would have to give lose planes for that to happen.

I'm not going to state that the XJT ERJs aren't going away, but you have to remember that United can fly as many 50 seaters as they want. Right now they are scoped out on 70/76 seaters. The only way to increase regional feed is to add 50 seaters or increase the NB mainline fleet.

Your argument states its better its better to not be wholly owned, not have
a flow or guaranteed interview and thus also lower paid. Let me guess who you work for a non
wholly owned. There may be some that it wont matter who they work for ie Military but for most there is no comparison. Your argument isn't based
on actual facts only speculation.

I'm not even sure what your argument is because your post is just rambling.

Going to a WO is a good idea for some people but it is surely not the only way to get to a major airline. There are plenty of people outside of flow or interview programs getting hired at major airlines, some with under 3 years and not military or special interest demographics. Yes, for some, going to a place like PDT that has a flow is a good deal. To say that all future hiring will be from a flow or CPP property is misleading and an outright falsehood.

I don't think flow or CPP or whatever will make it impossible to get the majors BUT it will definitely make it a lot more challenging. Look at AA new hire classes, less than 5% are street-hire civilians. Any program with any kind of preferential hiring or flow will have an impact on street hire. Flow is an excellent option for pilot without degrees and shady past (violations, traffic tickets, maybe an arrest).

Yes, but that's the only airline with that kind of ratio. Both Delta and United are largely off the street. I've talked to plenty of people at both airlines from a guaranteed flow AA program and from non-flow programs. Yes, getting hired at AA will be difficult for OTS. But I don't see the other two following in their footsteps. United's CPP has almost no teeth and Delta is trying to phase out a lot of regional flying.

It's not the case at UA now but as UA brings more and more programs such as CPP it will lower the odds of a street-hire.

What argument am I making? look back, that was my first post on this topic and I'm not even saying what is right and what is wrong just the conviction on this board that they have to prove the other guy is wrong! What is comical is the dick measuring contest between people on these boards trying to say their decision was the best and everyone will see in 5 years that not only will they see that their own decision was bad but the person that "told you so" was right and damn we should've listened...

I love the way people argue now... I'm going to make a preconceived notion on the other guy so that I can hammer that made up ideal of my antagonist.

BTW, relax... this is not pointed at you specifically but more the general state of this board and our nation in general sadly.

Yes street hire will likely continue to be increasingly less likely going forward. I know the flight schools are hyping the shortage like crazy, but for many reasons it won't happen at the legacies. They are getting apps from so many different facets of aviation not just regionals and LCC. The people at the non flow/cpp/dgi companies are telling themselves they all will easily walk in to mainline. Very small chance of that being the case.

Will AWAC still fly for American Eagle, or is this in addition to American Eagle?

You're right. I'm happy for AWAC and their pilot group. I was fortunate to call AWAC my home for nearly 9 years. Good bunch!

I'm not 100 % sure but from what I've read it seems AWAC will shift 65 a/c from AA to UA.

If everyone offers some kind of preferential interview, doesn't that mean no one has a preferential interview? Even if we don't believe that, United has so many regional partners that there really isn't any exclusivity. I don't see Delta or AA expanding their programs to non-WO. That leaves plenty of seats at Delta and plenty of seats at United available to off the street hires. LIke I said, the CPP has almost no teeth.

That's what I thought, but AWAC only has 66 a/c per Wikipedia.

My guess is they are parking one more which will get them down to 65 and sometime in 2018 will repaint and start UA flying.

That's a good way to put it.

Sorry, my knowledge is limited to XJT's CPP, but the thinking when it came out was that United's "hiring" of XJT pilots would simply shift where they came from seniority wise. As in, at one time, XJT pilots were the largest group hired of regional background, with SKW being second. UAL would still take XJT pilots at roughly the same historical percentage, just that most would interview via CPP ang go to class in seniority order. Although an OTS is still an option.

But that's not the way it's working out with the high shoot down rate. I've only heard of a few that interviewed via CPP that would have waited months, if not a year to go over on the CPP. Only to get an OTS HPI/interview and circumvent the CPP. And guess what? I've heard of 2 now that we're "accepted" into the CPP and waiting to go, THEN got an OTS intverview, and WERENT HIRED.

Point I'm getting at/short story long, the XJT CPP ISNT at all a hindrance/barrier/block to OTS hiring. Unlike AAG's WO who are contractual t make up a healthy amount of newhire slots.

ZW's contract with AAG expires Feb. 2018. After that ZW was effectively done...left alone on the dance floor with nobody to dance with. This agreement moves ZW's entire fleet (well, 50 with options for 15...so you can do the math there. I'd imagine the extra one will be parked or used for spares.) to UAL beginning "Early 2018." See how this is matching up here?

So ZW won't be flying for American Eagle anymore after that, only for United Express, or so it seems.

This is overall great news. But living 5 years at a time is stressful... Not to mention moving around.. I would use it as 5 years to move on. Those 200's aren't getting younger..

mesa got 12 more E175's for united......

he did specifically mention that it was a competitive advantage to steal feed from American

Pretty sure that's very illegal. Kirby isn't that dumb.

How much do you pay Mesa to fly those shiny 175 for United? Ooooooops, I mean Mesa pays you :-)

And...that's why your a pilot and not a businessman.

Actually, regarding United: If they add another narrow-body mainline, I think there's a clause that they can add more 70-seaters to the regional feed.

They haven't released their full newly revised fleet plan yet...but remember that their 737-700 order was upscaled and deferred to Max8s...

Wouldn't be surprised to see C-Series added mainline at UAL, and more 70-seaters as well.

United won't see a 737 Max for 3 years. American owns every delivery slot over that time.

United - Newsroom - News Releases

Actually you appear to be wrong on you assertion. UA takes first Max in 2018. Not sure where you are getting your information but it isn't factual as of today.

UA is launch customer for Max9. Delivery in 2018

The same number that will be reserved for AWAC and CommutAir = ZERO.

CPP at UA doesn't reserve slots at UA. DGI at Delta doesn't reserve slots. There are no reserved slots at any place besides American.

CPP/DGI/Flow is a trap for people who can't see the writing on the wall for the next 3-5 years. American's flow isn't as bad as the other two programs since you don't have to interview again and just have to watch the clock, but it's still a foolish move to make it your primary plan.

How long will they be able to pull their current military percentage before the military pilot pool is reduced down to solely the guys getting out at 10 years vs right now where there is a huge spread of guys between 10 and 20 years getting out? That high military percentage will not last too long.

If they hire off the street, that's one pilot they have to find/recruit/hire.

If they hire a pilot from a regional that flies their feed, they also have to find another pilot to replace him at the regional he just left, which like you said, is hard now, and getting harder.

It's a lot easier to attract someone to work at mainline than it is to keep attracting a continuous feed of new pilots at a regional when there aren't enough to go around, which is why they hang the Flow/CPP/DGI carrot just barely out of reach of the majority of the guys at the regional and only let in a small trickle of regional guys into the mainline millionaires club each year.

What would you do if you were trying to keep your mainline airline AND your regional airline staffed? Hire one pilot or two?

How so?

Street hires and CPP guys have to survive the same interview and meet roughly the same job requirements, and as United drops their requirements, the CPP requirements will probably stay unchanged.

The turndown rates are pretty high too right now.

One lease comes up this year. Don't know which tail.

If it was illegal why would he say it in writing? Pretty sure you're that dumb. Read the release and email

Billy can't get anything right.

So in the end we need each other to create a force not to be reckoned with. :)

So pretty much you got 5yrs to get your ducks in a row and find another job...
What is the over under of percentage of guys five years from now will be crying foul about AirWhiskey not getting another extension. I'm saying 70% for the over.

Next thing we will see is a post from a newbie asking what kind of qualifications and work rules you have to get on...in 3 2 1...

It's actually 5 years with an optional 2 year extension

I'm astounded by the amount of people badmouthing this new contract we had nothing to do with as a pilot group, and that saved us from losing our jobs next year. Unless you work(ed) at ZW, you don't know how bad morale has been the past few years knowing Feb 2018 was the end. Approx >80% of this pilot group is looking to get on with a bigger airline and didn't want to have to start over at another regional next year.