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Old 04-18-2021, 07:14 AM   #231  
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Kirby has already stated United has no future with 50 seat carriers. If youíre there now Iíd be bailing. I canít even imagine someone new would be considering going there.
As long as there are tiny rural markets, there will be small planes that go to them. It remains to be seen if the 175 will be that airplane, but my guess is a couple big airlines +skw will find a way to have Embraer(etc) make an updated 50 seater that passengers like better.
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Old 04-18-2021, 07:43 AM   #232  
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As long as there are tiny rural markets, there will be small planes that go to them. It remains to be seen if the 175 will be that airplane, but my guess is a couple big airlines +skw will find a way to have Embraer(etc) make an updated 50 seater that passengers like better.
Not necessarily. Years ago the small town where my parents lived was served by 3 flights a day with Beech 1900ís. Those people now drive 2 hours to cities served by larger aircraft because the market could not support the larger 50 seat jets. The airlines will go where the money is with the equipment that is available. If smaller markets canít support 70/76 seat jets, they will be phased out as the 50 seat jets are eventually retired and the remaining assets will serve viable markets.
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Old 04-19-2021, 06:05 AM   #233  
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Not necessarily. Years ago the small town where my parents lived was served by 3 flights a day with Beech 1900ís. Those people now drive 2 hours to cities served by larger aircraft because the market could not support the larger 50 seat jets. The airlines will go where the money is with the equipment that is available. If smaller markets canít support 70/76 seat jets, they will be phased out as the 50 seat jets are eventually retired and the remaining assets will serve viable markets.
Counter point: the number of 50 seaters today speaks to the market that exists right now. There are some airports that have phased out service, but there are tons of small cities that United makes a profit off of. UA makes a lot of money off small markets, and while some might go, no way they're giving up on them all. So they either they have to upgauge and reduce frequency, or find another small aircraft solution.
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Old 04-19-2021, 06:59 AM   #234  
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Agreed. There are examples where communities getting their first jet service has boosted the market out of the EAS program.
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Old 04-19-2021, 07:30 AM   #235  
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Counter point: the number of 50 seaters today speaks to the market that exists right now. There are some airports that have phased out service, but there are tons of small cities that United makes a profit off of. UA makes a lot of money off small markets, and while some might go, no way they're giving up on them all. So they either they have to upgauge and reduce frequency, or find another small aircraft solution.
Semi-Counter-Counterpoint. I regularly fly into PSC Pasco, Wa as a PAX a couple of times a year. They used to fly the 37 seat turboprop 8 times a day. A few years ago Horizon supersized them. Started flying the 76 seat turboprop 6 times a day. PAX loads have increased significantly. The PSC airport has grown significantly in ridership over the last decade. If you build it, they will come?
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Old 04-19-2021, 09:03 AM   #236  
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Semi-Counter-Counterpoint. I regularly fly into PSC Pasco, Wa as a PAX a couple of times a year. They used to fly the 37 seat turboprop 8 times a day. A few years ago Horizon supersized them. Started flying the 76 seat turboprop 6 times a day. PAX loads have increased significantly. The PSC airport has grown significantly in ridership over the last decade. If you build it, they will come?
Counter-counter-counter point.

I wouldn't use the Pasco market as a comparison figure. The population growth in that area has been unbelievable. It's definitely not the Pasco it was 12 years ago by any stretch.
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Old 04-19-2021, 11:27 AM   #237  
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Counter point: the number of 50 seaters today speaks to the market that exists right now. There are some airports that have phased out service, but there are tons of small cities that United makes a profit off of. UA makes a lot of money off small markets, and while some might go, no way they're giving up on them all. So they either they have to upgauge and reduce frequency, or find another small aircraft solution.
I think that the vast majority of lift currently being done by 50 seaters will be replaced with reduced frequency on the 175ís. A handful of really small markets could be dropped as well. My commute for example had 6-9 E175ís depending on the day before the pandemic that could be served with fewer flights on 737/320ís. That would free up big rjís to cover much of what the 50 seat fleet does now. Some of what that fleet does is serve extremely small markets like BFE Kansas, however a bunch of what they do is add frequency. Iím still betting that in 5 years UAX will consist of about 70 or so 550ís to cover the really small markets and the existing 175ís. I donít see Kirby freeing up additional 175ís by buying a new SNB, and I donít see there being enough global demand to spawn a new 50 seat aircraft in time to save aging 145ís and 200ís. That basically leaves competing against a better product with old 50 seaters, or bigger planes and reduced frequency. Kirby knows that he isnít getting scope concessions, he just doesn't like his available options.
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Old 04-19-2021, 03:45 PM   #238  
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I think that the vast majority of lift currently being done by 50 seaters will be replaced with reduced frequency on the 175ís. A handful of really small markets could be dropped as well. My commute for example had 6-9 E175ís depending on the day before the pandemic that could be served with fewer flights on 737/320ís. That would free up big rjís to cover much of what the 50 seat fleet does now. Some of what that fleet does is serve extremely small markets like BFE Kansas, however a bunch of what they do is add frequency. Iím still betting that in 5 years UAX will consist of about 70 or so 550ís to cover the really small markets and the existing 175ís. I donít see Kirby freeing up additional 175ís by buying a new SNB, and I donít see there being enough global demand to spawn a new 50 seat aircraft in time to save aging 145ís and 200ís. That basically leaves competing against a better product with old 50 seaters, or bigger planes and reduced frequency. Kirby knows that he isnít getting scope concessions, he just doesn't like his available options.
No...the 550 was never/will never be for really small markets.
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Old 04-19-2021, 07:44 PM   #239  
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Counter-counter-counter point.

I wouldn't use the Pasco market as a comparison figure. The population growth in that area has been unbelievable. It's definitely not the Pasco it was 12 years ago by any stretch.
That is true.
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Old 04-20-2021, 12:12 PM   #240  
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This is where the "bigger planes fewer times a day" argument fails. People want frequency, not capacity. If you don't depart when the pax wants to, they will find an airline that does. So unless you are the only option, you lose customers.
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