Hedley

Not wishing harm to anyone, but don’t be to sure of anything when dealing with United and the 50 seaters. United investing heavily in an airline is the same argument that the former XJT pilots had, and look how that turned out. United spent a ton of money buying part of the company and then dropped them with little notice. The 50 seaters aren’t going away overnight, but they are most likely going away over the next several years, and with scope maxed out, there are no real replacements. If on the street I’d take a bird in the hand and then leave for any 175 operator.

climb150

Anyone who joins a United 50 seat regional now and is still there in 5 years (unofficial 50 seat death date) needs a psychiatrist. Go ACMI or LCC or even fractional but don't get comfortable at a regional.

The amount of people who have said to me that they should have applied to JetBlue or Frontier instead of "waiting" for a legacy to call while at a regional.

DarkSideMoon

Exactly. Set a hard out date. Don’t let yourself get comfortable.

LAXtoDEN

I mean seriously have you learned nothing from UA in the past year? They invested much less in C5 than XJet. Although I’m fairly certain C5 will be just fine.

Also may I add United made a $1 billion investment in a company called Archer aviation, which is one of the new upcoming eVTOL ventures (ACIC). Man, it probably took them no later than a couple of hours to claim it was their initiative for clean energy. CRJ200’s and ERJ145’s are not a good look for the “clean energy” movement that suddenly UA has jumped into.

I’m extremely confident the 50 seater will be slowly fading away for good this time.

GA2Jets

Any way you cut it, they're getting old and at some point AW will need an out strategy. Even if they were to get into 700s, it's not like those are particularly young either. Green energy or no, the planes are gonna need replacing, either by bigger planes or newer ones.

Hedley

The only regional fleet that isn’t nearing the end of the line is the 175’s, and for now, the 550. There are only a few real options being that scope is maxed out.

1. The legacies relax scope (not likely)
2. A new and efficient 50 seat jet hits the market within the next 5 years (not likely)
3. The lift is replaced with larger aircraft flown by legacy pilots (not Kirby’s favorite option)

My guess is that within 3-5 years, all of the 145’s and 200’s will be gone, the 550’s will stay for a while, and the companies currently operating the 175’s will survive. That would leave one other regional flying the 550 unless one of the 175 operators took that flying depending on what United wanted that day.

colive10

Lady Justice will not be happy

sparky11

What about all those routes those planes are serving? I get the 175s are 70/76 seats but wont there need to be a lot more 175s flying around or more main line flying?

Hedley

Kirby’s hands are tied regarding scope. U-APLA’s firm position is that if he wants more 175’s, United pilots are the only pilots who will fly them. United and the others are moving to reduced frequency and larger aircraft. Many of the routes that have been served with the 50 seaters were high frequency, same with the 70/76 seaters. My commute (pre-COVID) for example was operated by 8 or so 175’s, depending on the day. That route could be served by 4 or 5 flights on a 737 or 320. The 175’s would then be free to cover much of what the 50 seaters are flying. Some of the smaller markets only served by one or two 50 seaters could prove to be no longer viable. The same thing happened when the 19 seat turboprops were replaced with Saab’s, and then again when they were replaced with rj’s. Delta has officially announced the retirement of their 50 seaters. As they age, American and United will have to adapt as well. Over the last 20+ years flying at the legacies was eroded while the regionals expanded, now it appears that as flying shifts to larger aircraft, the number of aircraft operated by the regionals will suffer the same fate. United is taking delivery of 94 aircraft during the next 2 years. The lift is available.

DarkSideMoon

There’s also the possibility of a nextgen turboprop in the next decade.

Gen Z/Millenials have never flown on a turboprop and have no preconceived hatred for them. Make them comfortable, give them good WiFi, cheap tickets, and good eco-centric marketing and they’ll work.