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Cessna182TypeR 04-10-2020 08:14 AM


Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3028643)
I have no idea how this will play out. It should be interesting to see what kind of spin the regional recruiters put on this. It was flow to AA in 5 years, quick path to UA, etc. Considering legacy furloughs, reduced schedules at the regionals, and the drawdown of the 50 seat lift, the BS out of recruiting departments could get deep.

The recruiters won’t have to do anything. Compass and TSA are done. That’s almost 800-1,000 121 pilots on the street. A couple more regionals are next.

Not to mention the legacies could furlough 3-4,000 EACH. Then add on the LCC’s...

I don’t see how any green, fresh out of flight school kids even find their way to a regional in the next 2-3 yrs. The regionals will not be paying for the ATP-CTP programs for the foreseeable future either.

This industry literally did a 180 overnight.

WhisperJet 04-10-2020 08:26 AM


Originally Posted by dremaldent (Post 3028592)
Again, they can't run the system without 50 seaters unless they replace them with larger RJs. Demand will return very quickly. No one is going to want to stay holed up for 18 months.


I hope for yours and Air Willy's sake that you are right. But the fact is, Kirby has mentioned 50 seaters largely going away. And with the CRJ-550 and the push to upgrade some of the E145s, it would make logical sense that CRJ-200s are on the block. When ZW's contract expires, I would be shocked if it was extended.

I pray I'm wrong, and maybe I am. But NOW is the time to prepare for the worst. Get logbooks updated, references collected, training records, resumes, etc ready. Start thinking of expanding your skills. Online courses? CFI renewal? Other licenses? Grad school?

I've been through this before. Hanging on to every little hope and logic up until the day I was shown the door. Be optimistic, but at the same time prepare for the worst. The writing is on the wall it would seem. Being prepared will allow you to focus your energy on more productive things and will soften the blow when and if the bad news comes.

Excargodog 04-10-2020 09:01 AM

Even if ALL 50 seaters aren’t going away I think the CRJ-200s are doomed. After months of having “social distancing’ crammed into their collective heads the public is going to be resistant to being crammed in to a CRJ-200.

https://www.avgeekery.com/the-crj-20...-of-the-skies/

flightlessbirds 04-10-2020 09:06 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3028744)
Even if ALL 50 seaters aren’t going away I think the CRJ-200s are doomed. After months of having “social distancing’ crammed into their collective heads the public is going to be resistant to being crammed in to a CRJ-200.

https://www.avgeekery.com/the-crj-20...-of-the-skies/

until the fare is $3 less than a super duper CRJ-550MAX-NEO gen 2.

Customers don’t make purchases based on airplane type. Never have, never will. It’s price, route network, and schedule.

GA2Jets 04-10-2020 09:10 AM


Originally Posted by WhisperJet (Post 3028705)
I hope for yours and Air Willy's sake that you are right. But the fact is, Kirby has mentioned 50 seaters largely going away. And with the CRJ-550 and the push to upgrade some of the E145s, it would make logical sense that CRJ-200s are on the block. When ZW's contract expires, I would be shocked if it was extended.

I pray I'm wrong, and maybe I am. But NOW is the time to prepare for the worst. Get logbooks updated, references collected, training records, resumes, etc ready. Start thinking of expanding your skills. Online courses? CFI renewal? Other licenses? Grad school?

I've been through this before. Hanging on to every little hope and logic up until the day I was shown the door. Be optimistic, but at the same time prepare for the worst. The writing is on the wall it would seem. Being prepared will allow you to focus your energy on more productive things and will soften the blow when and if the bad news comes.

I think the days may be numbered for the crj2, but if the demand comes back even close, airframes and pilots will be needed one way or the other. Even if it isn't here, it will be at some other airline.

If the solution to getting rid of 50 seats is more 76 seaters, then those will need to be staffed somehow. Once demand is back, the pilot shortage will show it's face quickly again. Especially is UA wants to make an aggressive play to gain more market share at the expense of weaker airlines.

Itsajob 04-10-2020 09:18 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3028744)
Even if ALL 50 seaters aren’t going away I think the CRJ-200s are doomed. After months of having “social distancing’ crammed into their collective heads the public is going to be resistant to being crammed in to a CRJ-200.

https://www.avgeekery.com/the-crj-20...-of-the-skies/

How is that any different from being crammed into an E145, or even a middle seat in a 737? I wouldn’t put any value in previous plans to upgrade a particular model prior to the virus either. If the company is considering parking the 767 fleet after already spending millions converting them to Polaris, deciding not to upgrade a fleet that is on the chopping block will be an easy decision. Depending on what the definition of “mostly gone” is, they could eliminate one fleet type and still “significantly reduce” another. I don’t think that it’s an either/or type of deal. It would be just as easy to park the E145’s at Expressjet and CommutAir while keeping the CRJ 200’s at Air Wisconsin and SkyWest. My guess is that they cut a bunch of both.

Excargodog 04-10-2020 09:23 AM


Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3028760)
. I think the days may be numbered for the crj2, but if the demand comes back even close, airframes and pilots will be needed one way or the other. Even if it isn't here, it will be at some other airline.

Agree, ultimately the flying demand will determine the need for pilots, and once that returns coronavirus will have actually exacerbated the shortfall of pilots by interfering with training of new pilots while the existing pilots continued to age out of the profession.


Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3028760)
.
If the solution to getting rid of 50 seats is more 76 seaters, then those will need to be staffed somehow. Once demand is back, the pilot shortage will show it's face quickly again. Especially is UA wants to make an aggressive play to gain more market share at the expense of weaker airlines.

perversely, United and other legacies may BE the “weaker airlines” in this case. Carrying the burden of widebody international flying - which will likely be the last thing to come back - and the additional burden of multiple fleet types, I could easily see SWA, F9, and NK gaining domestic market share on the legacies.

Itsajob 04-10-2020 09:25 AM


Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3028760)
I think the days may be numbered for the crj2, but if the demand comes back even close, airframes and pilots will be needed one way or the other. Even if it isn't here, it will be at some other airline.

If the solution to getting rid of 50 seats is more 76 seaters, then those will need to be staffed somehow. Once demand is back, the pilot shortage will show it's face quickly again. Especially is UA wants to make an aggressive play to gain more market share at the expense of weaker airlines.

The problem for people who were previously flying 50 seaters is that moving to 76 seat or larger aircraft will result in a demand for fewer pilots. An oversimplified example to make public math easy would be a route that was previously covered by 8 flights on a 50 seat jet, are now covered by 4 flights on a 100 seat jet, you only need half the pilots.

itsmytime 04-10-2020 10:10 AM


Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3028769)
It would be just as easy to park the E145’s at Expressjet and CommutAir while keeping the CRJ 200’s at Air Wisconsin and SkyWest. My guess is that they cut a bunch of both.

Xjet and commutair are safe due to United’s ownership stake, they may not be flying 50 seaters, but they will be flying something. Skywest is the industry darling for some reason, so they’ll be ok too. That just leaves one 50 seat operator in the lurch....

Itsajob 04-10-2020 10:15 AM


Originally Posted by itsmytime (Post 3028822)
Xjet and commutair are safe due to United’s ownership stake, they may not be flying 50 seaters, but they will be flying something. Skywest is the industry darling for some reason, so they’ll be ok too. That just leaves one 50 seat operator in the lurch....

Where are Expressjet and CommutAir going to get these planes? United only owns some many E175’s. I wouldn’t put too much into prior investments or ownership stake at this point. The company is in survival mode and nothing is off of the table.


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