Is the town hall recording posted anywhere?

This all feels oddly familiar... Wasn't that long ago Delta said in a few town halls, that they would go down to 3 regionals... Well it turned out true. Funny how UA is now backing off to “almost all”. 50 seat jets... Prorate “eas” city's will still stay 50 seaters...

Diplomatic furloughing...first flying reduced/lines reduced, bases closed, monthly minimum guarantee reduced, shove people from IAD and CAE into ORD and MKE (basically dropping them down the seniority gutter and probably into reserve), probably very minimal flying now, no chance for open time because of reserve, people then have to probably commute the night before or get crash pads to ride out reserve days, make people desperate by slowly pushing them in a corner so people leave on their own accord hence reduce payroll and unneeded pilots, and retain the senior guys for after the virus then go on a hiring spree and fill it up with fresh newbies to replace people who left.

that’s how I’d do it if I was a corporation without getting my hands dirty anyway. Create a scenario where people resign voluntarily instead of direct furlough and still be happy that I got the bailout money and “maintained” payroll.

Unless the plan is to consolidate all of the remaining 50 seat flying to one or two regional carriers. Somehow, I’d bet SkyWest would be one of those!

Once all of this is over and all the dust settles, most of these regional carriers will no longer be in existence or possibly a smaller, fraction of an operation compared to what they are now. The majors are in perfect position to dump any flying or carrier they really didn’t want before but were contractually obligated to . This gives then the perfect escape and they are going to take it .
Sad times Ahead for most of us no matter what seat you’re in . I’m dusting off my cdl’s and i May go drive an 18 wheeler for my buddy for awhile .

Again, they can't run the system without 50 seaters unless they replace them with larger RJs. Demand will return very quickly. No one is going to want to stay holed up for 18 months.

Yes they will keep some , I agree but who and how many remains to be seen. There will be a significant reduction, the big boss has stated many times . His mind is made up but exactly who will be left standing is just something we will have to let play out .

I don’t think that anyone is safe. United is talking about retiring fleets as well. The only difference is that retiring mainline planes depends on returning demand, where they seem fairly sure that 50 seat flying will be much less. SkyWest operates a bunch of old CRJ 200’s. I don’t know why they would be any safer than Expressjet E 145’s. If you wanted to get rid of a bunch of rj’s, do you take away those flown by SkyWest or just shut down a company like Expressjet or Air Wisconsin? I guess that it depends on if they want to target one particular model or how many jets they mean by “significant” or “mostly gone”.

Yeah but if Skywest looses most of its 50 seaters they will be ok, it will sting but they can survive. A co like AWAC looses 50-60% of its flying and revenue it won’t be able to sustain very long, especially after spending millions on new maintenance hangars 😂😂😂
Xjt and CommutAir? Who knows . With UA’s stake in both of those they could merge them or shut them down . Who knows . My popcorn is poppin’ though
Gonna be intriguing to say the least .

I have no idea how this will play out. It should be interesting to see what kind of spin the regional recruiters put on this. It was flow to AA in 5 years, quick path to UA, etc. Considering legacy furloughs, reduced schedules at the regionals, and the drawdown of the 50 seat lift, the BS out of recruiting departments could get deep.

The recruiters won’t have to do anything. Compass and TSA are done. That’s almost 800-1,000 121 pilots on the street. A couple more regionals are next.

Not to mention the legacies could furlough 3-4,000 EACH. Then add on the LCC’s...

I don’t see how any green, fresh out of flight school kids even find their way to a regional in the next 2-3 yrs. The regionals will not be paying for the ATP-CTP programs for the foreseeable future either.

This industry literally did a 180 overnight.

I hope for yours and Air Willy's sake that you are right. But the fact is, Kirby has mentioned 50 seaters largely going away. And with the CRJ-550 and the push to upgrade some of the E145s, it would make logical sense that CRJ-200s are on the block. When ZW's contract expires, I would be shocked if it was extended.

I pray I'm wrong, and maybe I am. But NOW is the time to prepare for the worst. Get logbooks updated, references collected, training records, resumes, etc ready. Start thinking of expanding your skills. Online courses? CFI renewal? Other licenses? Grad school?

I've been through this before. Hanging on to every little hope and logic up until the day I was shown the door. Be optimistic, but at the same time prepare for the worst. The writing is on the wall it would seem. Being prepared will allow you to focus your energy on more productive things and will soften the blow when and if the bad news comes.

Even if ALL 50 seaters aren’t going away I think the CRJ-200s are doomed. After months of having “social distancing’ crammed into their collective heads the public is going to be resistant to being crammed in to a CRJ-200.

https://www.avgeekery.com/the-crj-20...-of-the-skies/

until the fare is $3 less than a super duper CRJ-550MAX-NEO gen 2.

Customers don’t make purchases based on airplane type. Never have, never will. It’s price, route network, and schedule.

I think the days may be numbered for the crj2, but if the demand comes back even close, airframes and pilots will be needed one way or the other. Even if it isn't here, it will be at some other airline.

If the solution to getting rid of 50 seats is more 76 seaters, then those will need to be staffed somehow. Once demand is back, the pilot shortage will show it's face quickly again. Especially is UA wants to make an aggressive play to gain more market share at the expense of weaker airlines.

How is that any different from being crammed into an E145, or even a middle seat in a 737? I wouldn’t put any value in previous plans to upgrade a particular model prior to the virus either. If the company is considering parking the 767 fleet after already spending millions converting them to Polaris, deciding not to upgrade a fleet that is on the chopping block will be an easy decision. Depending on what the definition of “mostly gone” is, they could eliminate one fleet type and still “significantly reduce” another. I don’t think that it’s an either/or type of deal. It would be just as easy to park the E145’s at Expressjet and CommutAir while keeping the CRJ 200’s at Air Wisconsin and SkyWest. My guess is that they cut a bunch of both.

Agree, ultimately the flying demand will determine the need for pilots, and once that returns coronavirus will have actually exacerbated the shortfall of pilots by interfering with training of new pilots while the existing pilots continued to age out of the profession.

perversely, United and other legacies may BE the “weaker airlines” in this case. Carrying the burden of widebody international flying - which will likely be the last thing to come back - and the additional burden of multiple fleet types, I could easily see SWA, F9, and NK gaining domestic market share on the legacies.

The problem for people who were previously flying 50 seaters is that moving to 76 seat or larger aircraft will result in a demand for fewer pilots. An oversimplified example to make public math easy would be a route that was previously covered by 8 flights on a 50 seat jet, are now covered by 4 flights on a 100 seat jet, you only need half the pilots.

Xjet and commutair are safe due to United’s ownership stake, they may not be flying 50 seaters, but they will be flying something. Skywest is the industry darling for some reason, so they’ll be ok too. That just leaves one 50 seat operator in the lurch....

Where are Expressjet and CommutAir going to get these planes? United only owns some many E175’s. I wouldn’t put too much into prior investments or ownership stake at this point. The company is in survival mode and nothing is off of the table.

this is why I wonder why mainline pilots are so excited about the 50 seaters going away? Those 50 seaters feed your hubs and as you said, there are no more 70 seaters, so where is the lift going to come from? Goes directly against his other statement of picking up market share the competitors leave behind.

yeah, I know Scott could get more 70 seaters by ordering a mainline narrow body, but he’s made no mention of that. Lots of talk about retiring fleets, but nothing about adding.

Legacy pilots have slowly given away the store for years and they will celebrate any reduction in outsourced flying. Replacing that lift is what the company and U-ALPA are working on. ALPA is pushing for something like the E190/5 E2 or bringing 76 seat jets in house and negotiating a rate (both would be considered a new NB fleet type and unlock rj’s). We don’t know where all of this is going, but we see it as a step in the right direction.

Approximately how many seniority numbers below you there?

you former regional, or military?

freight scum

The LAST thing the legacies want is to order ANOTHER aircraft type. The multiple types they have now have made any potential furloughs damn near impossible. The airframes that won’t be doing much flying for awhile are largely populated by their senior guys. To furlough a junior guy they are going to generate about 3-4 different training events, culminating in new type ratings for the senior guys because they don’t HAVE 727s any more. That’s going to cost them a person-year of salaries, just for the multiple training events, during which those people contribute zero productivity. And that’s going to generate displacements as well. Then, when flying resumes, they are going to have to reverse the process.

Compare that with what it would cost SWA or F9 or NK to furlough, with a single fleet type and a common type rating. This has the potential to give the LCC/ULCC airlines a real advantage over the legacies - at least in the short term.

How many “EAS/Prorate” city's does ZW serve?. OO serves 29 for UA. The key is UA may eventually say they don’t have any “50 seaters” but thats not true. EAS/Prorate carry the UA code but are operated by other airlines.. cape air, boutique, SkyWest, or wven foreign codeshares, ect... 50 seat RJ’s will be around for awhile. But not in the mass they are today...

We were taxing out of Ord one day awhile back for 10L DD. Counted over 20 AC waiting to take off. Out of those well over half were rj’s.
Less rjs is a good thing .Clogging up the ramp, Airways etc. It will sting for awhile but in the end it’s more mainline jobs for all of us down the road.Unless you’re a regional lifer, if that’s the case things are very bleak at the moment.

A220's coming to United
 

Prior to this Virus, United clearly indicated they would not pursue the A220 market. My inside source say management has drawn up a new business plan and the A220 fits that new post-virus world perfectly (Hence Kirby's comment). 109-seat markets make sense now, less frequency into the existing smaller markets previously served 4 to 6 times a day. Those who have offers through the Aviate program, buckle your seat belts. Don't let the doomsdayer bring you down, there is a light at the end of this tunnel.

What would the Aviate program have to do with this? Wouldn't they just staff those with current UA pilots?

I think what he's getting at is more 220 pilot slots at Mainline would result in increased hiring, which is indeed correct, and would be very good in the long term for anyone already at a regional airline. Short-term no clue. depends on a lot of stuff.

He is retiring a ton of aircrafts internally, if he brings in the 220 he will staff it will current UA employees and if he kills a bunch of regionals as well we will be flooded with 5000+ unemployed pilots. Not looking very good...

You are all clearly missing the "Breeze Airways" of United that about to be born.

Even if i did, haven't given Breeze any thought yet as it is not established. If UA were to start it he they would probably staff it with UA furloughs. I just see how the math can be done any way so that us at any regional can hope for a legacy job any time soon.
All legacies are in danger of furlough or even BK. They have all said they will come out smaller than before so the retirement section is covered and when everything turns around the furloughs will staff the "new" flying. There are about 20000 regional pilots right now and regardless who you work for, non of us are safe.

They already tried that years ago. It was called “TED”.


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You both underestimate the resiliency of the United States of America. Most people here think & post in terms of 3 to 7 months into the future. A good CEO & leader has to see 1 to 2 years into the future and start planning for it now. There's not much I can do if you can't see past 3 months from now, but that's OK, I'm used to it, as I said, most people on here can't see beyond that.

I don’t have the savings to be thinking 1-2 years ahead in this case, unless my landlord decides to think beyond when rent is due next month.

my understanding is a220 orders are backlogged. That buys everyone a lot of time if the retirement is based on a220’s showing up at mainline.

United had Ted, Delta had Song, USair tried Metro Jet. They all failed.

That was before an invisible thing called Covid19.

"So how will the Airbus A220 affect United Airlines? Well, to cut a long story short, it will allow the airline to become more profitable through lower fuel consumption, whilst providing full load factors on low-demand routes." hmmm.