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CVGair 04-07-2020 03:26 PM


Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3026100)
Here is his exact quote:

“my guess is that the 50 seaters will be mostly gone by the end of this. Under almost any of these scenarios 50 seat flying will be a thing of the past”.

The scenarios he talked about prior to that statement were best case and worst case. A person hanging their hope on on the words “guess”, or “almost” is setting themselves up for disappointment. After Scott made the statement Oscar didn’t walk it back. He said, “there are probably some smiles around virtual land right now with that statement.”



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

Exactly, then after that snarky comment, the card counter (who claims to be banned from some casinos) actually laughed. He laughed, That is what the highest of the high at that airline thinks about express employees losing their job. Vulgar! I got news for ya, when a girl sais I dont want to see you anymore, the answer you give is NOT "what do you mean by that?" Years ago there was this series of shows, books, movies, etc. "he's not that in to you" No really he is not!, get it thru your heads and plan accordingly. You dont need to imply or interpret what was said, wake up!

RAHkid94 04-07-2020 03:27 PM


Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3026510)
The only honest answer to that question is I don't know and neither do you. I bet SK doesn't even know but heck I could be wrong. Look. Life is nuanced. It is not definitely anything, it is not obvious anything. It is bad, for sure. It is dangerous for us and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose the company. But spare me the "it's obvious" talk.

He’s the CEO of the company! His “Guess” carries a hell of a lot more weight than anyone else’s due to the fact that he’s the one making the decision! And then they laughed about the prospect!

I’m not a doomer and I certainly hope I’m wrong, but I’m not going to sit here for 6 months sitting on my hands while we’re flying straight towards a mountain.

I suppose the GPWS could be broken, but right now it’s saying “Caution, Terrain” and you guys are saying “there’s a chance it’s malfunctioning” instead of pulling up.

Itsajob 04-07-2020 03:28 PM


Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3026500)
What is black and white about what he said? Please do tell bc we would all love to know your insight into the obvious comment. The whole town hall was filled with "anything could happen" rhetoric, good and bad both. So please, tell us the obvious future would you?

I think the ultimate outcome was pretty black white, the timeframe is debatable.

vortacmeatsac 04-07-2020 03:42 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026512)
He’s the CEO of the company! His “Guess” carries a hell of a lot more weight than anyone else’s due to the fact that he’s the one making the decision! And then they laughed about the prospect!

I’m not a doomer and I certainly hope I’m wrong, but I’m not going to sit here for 6 months sitting on my hands while we’re flying straight towards a mountain.

I suppose the GPWS could be broken, but right now it’s saying “Caution, Terrain” and you guys are saying “there’s a chance it’s malfunctioning” instead of pulling up.

This is the most ridiculous and pathetic attempt at an analogy I have read in a long time.

GA2Jets 04-07-2020 03:42 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026512)
He’s the CEO of the company! His “Guess” carries a hell of a lot more weight than anyone else’s due to the fact that he’s the one making the decision! And then they laughed about the prospect!

I’m not a doomer and I certainly hope I’m wrong, but I’m not going to sit here for 6 months sitting on my hands while we’re flying straight towards a mountain.

I suppose the GPWS could be broken, but right now it’s saying “Caution, Terrain” and you guys are saying “there’s a chance it’s malfunctioning” instead of pulling up.

...what? Who here is not pulling up? What does that even mean? I'm not saying don't prepare, I agree with you. It is likely to be bad. But it isn't obvious, that's all I'm saying!

SKs guess 6 weeks ago was a 70% drop in demand. It's 95% ok? He can guess wrong. Not that he will, but he could.

RAHkid94 04-07-2020 03:51 PM


Originally Posted by vortacmeatsac (Post 3026527)
This is the most ridiculous and pathetic attempt at an analogy I have read in a long time.

How so? The CEO of United made a statement that under most conditions means we won’t be flying anymore, and everyone here is debating about how he might not have meant what he said. Now is the time to pull the trigger on any sort of backup plan before 600 of us are fighting over a skydiving job.

vortacmeatsac 04-07-2020 03:56 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026538)
How so? The CEO of United made a statement that under most conditions means we won’t be flying anymore, and everyone here is debating about how he might not have meant what he said. Now is the time to pull the trigger on any sort of backup plan before 600 of us are fighting over a skydiving job.

Dude, go get some fresh air.

RAHkid94 04-07-2020 03:58 PM


Originally Posted by vortacmeatsac (Post 3026545)
Dude, go get some fresh air.

Breathing it now. Enjoy the sand.

vortacmeatsac 04-07-2020 04:00 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026547)
Breathing it now. Enjoy the sand.

Your tonka trucks plastic, or old school metal?

flightlessbirds 04-07-2020 04:10 PM


Originally Posted by RAHkid94 (Post 3026538)
How so? The CEO of United made a statement that under most conditions means we won’t be flying anymore, and everyone here is debating about how he might not have meant what he said. Now is the time to pull the trigger on any sort of backup plan before 600 of us are fighting over a skydiving job.

drama much?

...this has become worse than a group of sophomore girls planning their whole married life off of one drunken comment by the quarterback at an after party.

We’ve known for at least a decade that management types would love to get rid of 50 seaters and replace them with unlimited large RJs...if this can be done for ‘free’ (not having to pay any of the costs for this change and only keeping the the benefits for themselves). This is exactly what SK has done at AA and has been trying (and failing) to do at UAL since Parker fired him and the BOD picked him up to show Oscar the exit and put the screws on labor groups to increase profits.

He NEEDS a large scope cave for any of this to mean a single hill of beans—I cannot be any more explicit about this but people around here are willfully ignoring the whole set of facts. He won’t get it. If he doesn’t get a scope cave, he needs bankruptcy to try something like this. This has huge dangers for him:

1.) SK will most likely not be in charge at that point. (Except perhaps in a #5 scenario, which has been his and Parker’s MO since the AmericaWest days. There is a whole additional wrinkle to this: looking at how AA union groups have faired under Parker I would be very surprised if he got the labor buy-in from mainline to pull it off again...but who knows)
2.) The economics of small RJs on a trip cost basis will be very apparent and favorable.
3.) The government will have a huge say in a quasi-nationalization (which is what a UAL bankruptcy will look like except perhaps for #5) in forcing a kind of Essential Air Service that will prop up 50 seat demand until the next wave of deregulation. 10-50 years depending upon how deep this recession/depression is.
4.) Any CAPEX will be essentially zero for the foreseeable future.
5.) Any prepackaged bankruptcy will need exit financing, probably from within the industry given how badly the sector is/will be viewed. The only two carriers that MAY be positioned to provide that and have a history of doing such deals are major UAX 50 seat operators.


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