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-   -   50 Seat Viability (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/air-wisconsin/128834-50-seat-viability.html)

BRJPilot 04-09-2020 08:46 PM


Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3028378)
That’s not exactly what he said. He answered a fleet question and he said that if the demand is down 30% at the end of the year and expected to stay, that the 757 is most likely gone. He then said that if the 757 goes, then the 767 probably will too. If the demand worsens or stays depressed for an extended period of time the Airbus fleet would follow. He then said that he really doesn’t want to get rid of the 757 or 767 and that they would have to look at it then. He then said that the 50 seat flying will see a “significant reduction” under any scenario. He didn’t define what he meant by significant, what model of 50 seaters would be targeted first, or when this will begin. People can read into his statement what ever they need to believe at this point. He didn’t say when, or who, but if you work for a company operating 50 seat jets, the consistent message is that you will be taking a pretty big hit.

Is the town hall recording posted anywhere?

amcnd 04-09-2020 08:54 PM

This all feels oddly familiar... Wasn't that long ago Delta said in a few town halls, that they would go down to 3 regionals... Well it turned out true. Funny how UA is now backing off to “almost all”. 50 seat jets... Prorate “eas” city's will still stay 50 seaters...

IDriveJets 04-09-2020 09:14 PM

Diplomatic furloughing...first flying reduced/lines reduced, bases closed, monthly minimum guarantee reduced, shove people from IAD and CAE into ORD and MKE (basically dropping them down the seniority gutter and probably into reserve), probably very minimal flying now, no chance for open time because of reserve, people then have to probably commute the night before or get crash pads to ride out reserve days, make people desperate by slowly pushing them in a corner so people leave on their own accord hence reduce payroll and unneeded pilots, and retain the senior guys for after the virus then go on a hiring spree and fill it up with fresh newbies to replace people who left.

that’s how I’d do it if I was a corporation without getting my hands dirty anyway. Create a scenario where people resign voluntarily instead of direct furlough and still be happy that I got the bailout money and “maintained” payroll.

piloto2 04-09-2020 09:28 PM


Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3028378)
He didn’t say when, or who, but if you work for a company operating 50 seat jets, the consistent message is that you will be taking a pretty big hit.

Unless the plan is to consolidate all of the remaining 50 seat flying to one or two regional carriers. Somehow, I’d bet SkyWest would be one of those!

idlethrust 04-10-2020 05:56 AM


Originally Posted by piloto2 (Post 3028467)
Unless the plan is to consolidate all of the remaining 50 seat flying to one or two regional carriers. Somehow, I’d bet SkyWest would be one of those!

Once all of this is over and all the dust settles, most of these regional carriers will no longer be in existence or possibly a smaller, fraction of an operation compared to what they are now. The majors are in perfect position to dump any flying or carrier they really didn’t want before but were contractually obligated to . This gives then the perfect escape and they are going to take it .
Sad times Ahead for most of us no matter what seat you’re in . I’m dusting off my cdl’s and i May go drive an 18 wheeler for my buddy for awhile .

dremaldent 04-10-2020 06:39 AM

Again, they can't run the system without 50 seaters unless they replace them with larger RJs. Demand will return very quickly. No one is going to want to stay holed up for 18 months.

idlethrust 04-10-2020 06:48 AM


Originally Posted by dremaldent (Post 3028592)
Again, they can't run the system without 50 seaters unless they replace them with larger RJs. Demand will return very quickly. No one is going to want to stay holed up for 18 months.

Yes they will keep some , I agree but who and how many remains to be seen. There will be a significant reduction, the big boss has stated many times . His mind is made up but exactly who will be left standing is just something we will have to let play out .

Itsajob 04-10-2020 06:52 AM


Originally Posted by piloto2 (Post 3028467)
Unless the plan is to consolidate all of the remaining 50 seat flying to one or two regional carriers. Somehow, I’d bet SkyWest would be one of those!

I don’t think that anyone is safe. United is talking about retiring fleets as well. The only difference is that retiring mainline planes depends on returning demand, where they seem fairly sure that 50 seat flying will be much less. SkyWest operates a bunch of old CRJ 200’s. I don’t know why they would be any safer than Expressjet E 145’s. If you wanted to get rid of a bunch of rj’s, do you take away those flown by SkyWest or just shut down a company like Expressjet or Air Wisconsin? I guess that it depends on if they want to target one particular model or how many jets they mean by “significant” or “mostly gone”.

idlethrust 04-10-2020 07:04 AM


Originally Posted by Itsajob (Post 3028601)
I don’t think that anyone is safe. United is talking about retiring fleets as well. The only difference is that retiring mainline planes depends on returning demand, where they seem fairly sure that 50 seat flying will be much less. SkyWest operates a bunch of old CRJ 200’s. I don’t know why they would be any safer than Expressjet E 145’s. If you wanted to get rid of a bunch of rj’s, do you take away those flown by SkyWest or just shut down a company like Expressjet or Air Wisconsin? I guess that it depends on if they want to target one particular model or how many jets they mean by “significant” or “mostly gone”.

Yeah but if Skywest looses most of its 50 seaters they will be ok, it will sting but they can survive. A co like AWAC looses 50-60% of its flying and revenue it won’t be able to sustain very long, especially after spending millions on new maintenance hangars 😂😂😂
Xjt and CommutAir? Who knows . With UA’s stake in both of those they could merge them or shut them down . Who knows . My popcorn is poppin’ though
Gonna be intriguing to say the least .

Itsajob 04-10-2020 07:28 AM


Originally Posted by idlethrust (Post 3028614)
Yeah but if Skywest looses most of its 50 seaters they will be ok, it will sting but they can survive. A co like AWAC looses 50-60% of its flying and revenue it won’t be able to sustain very long, especially after spending millions on new maintenance hangars 😂😂😂
Xjt and CommutAir? Who knows . With UA’s stake in both of those they could merge them or shut them down . Who knows . My popcorn is poppin’ though
Gonna be intriguing to say the least .

I have no idea how this will play out. It should be interesting to see what kind of spin the regional recruiters put on this. It was flow to AA in 5 years, quick path to UA, etc. Considering legacy furloughs, reduced schedules at the regionals, and the drawdown of the 50 seat lift, the BS out of recruiting departments could get deep.


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