GA2Jets

I'll be very interested to see what happens in regard to United and AW, considering Aviate. On the one hand, you have the tale of Xjet, Aviate didn't do much for them, although it was an extremely desperate circumstance.

On the other hand, it seems that United fully understands the long term hiring challenge they're going to face. Older pilots are retiring in droves, and Kirby wants to expand big-time over the next 5-10 years. They'll need a reliable source of pilots, as many as they can get because they'll be competing with other big airlines. They're all in on the Aviate program and it would take a serious hit if another carrier just went away.

It makes me skeptical that they'll be happy to kick AW to the curb unless they can't come close to competing on cost. If that were the case, AW would have already been let go in October like Xjet. What I think is a big question is why isn't GoJet in the Aviate program?

flightlessbirds

The things I got from skimming the 10-K was a stock buy-back program and how Bartlett may have a controlling interest...I might have misread both but that could drive the OTC market apart from all the pilot or aviation specific things referenced here. Look to see if other airlines stocks: SKW, etc had similar volumes/moves today for some insight.

Hedley

Neither Aviate or a prior heavy investment did much for XJT. Don’t think that Mother U has any loyalty to any regional. If it’s better from either a cost or operational basis to let a regional go, they won’t skip a beat. Having said that, I really have no clue what their plans are. They could easily make GoJet an Aviate company since they are exclusive, expand Mesa since their pilots only fly one brand, retire a 50 seat fleet, replace the lift with United aircraft and dump a regional, etc. United is boxing themselves into a corner and ALPA knows it. They want to expand, however scope is maxed out, and like it or not, the 50 seaters are nearing the end of their service life. That means that the only available long term option is larger equipment operated by United pilots. The ball is in Kirby’s court and all we can do is watch.

GA2Jets

I don't want to overestimate their loyalty to any regional, that's for sure. *However*, if they disrupt their pilot pipeline, that also works against their business interests, namely their ability to hire pilots regularly. Also, what Kirby said last year notwithstanding, he has said many times before that a strong regional network is key to their profitability. The only reason he got wishy washy on 50 seaters was...well...no one was travelling!

Hedley

United will never have trouble attracting qualified pilots due to the pay rates. The issue is attracting people to support the regional feed. It is because of this that I see United changing what UAX looks like going forward. Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will be. You are right about the regional network being vital, but U-Alpa’s position is that UAX has all of the big rj’s that they’re going to get, the 50 seat fleet is aging and unpopular, and going forward, anything bigger than 50 seats will be flown by United pilots. Kirby does want to eliminate the single class 50 seat fleet and replace that with 175’s operated by the regionals. ALPA’s position is that he can have an unrestricted regional fleet as long as United pilots fly the planes, but we all know his answer to that. Time to pop some corn and see where this goes.

GA2Jets

They might have trouble when they have to compete straight up with Southwest, Frontier, AA, DL and all the rest. Pay rates are good but not the only thing...

I wonder if UA won't go to Embraer and say here's a billion dollars, make a modern 145. AA would probably get in on it too tbh.

Seneca Pilot

I wonder if they could just knock a few feet off the cabin of a 170 and make it into a spacious 50 seater with good range? Call it the ERJ 150

Hedley

The rest of the industry is moving away from the 50 seaters too. The reason that UA doesn’t go to Embraer and ask for a new 50 seater is that they don’t want a 50 seater other than the 550. Prior to COVID, one of the things that Kirby talked about was how Delta was killing us in certain markets. They would send a 319 or 717 into our hubs while we sent rj’s into theirs. In order to compete with the companies that you list, United needs to offer a product that is at the very least, equal. Even a brand new 145 is inferior to what the competition is using. I also think that the 175 and 550 will most likely be flown by regional pilots long after the 50 seaters are eventually phased out. This will hopefully cause the surviving regionals to significantly up their pay at some point to attract pilots.

Mustang1962

I’m not sure why a mainline pilot spends so much time in the regional forums. That said, I think your prognostications regarding the future of 50 seat regional flying is way off. Your initial misinterpretation of SK’s statement was just the beginning. Sure, the 50 seaters will eventually be phased out, but considering the way United is dumping money into the 145s right now, that phase out may be later than you think. C5 has gone from 35 of those planes to over 60 in just a few months. And they are pulling more out of the desert and completing C checks on several of those. Final plans are being reviewed for new interiors and WiFi to go along with the new paint jobs too. C5 isn’t paying for that work, United is!

Hedley

Mostly bored on a layover and I do look at boards that involve United. Sometimes it’s fun to watch a good dumpster fire on various pages as well. I don’t think that the 50 seaters will be gone tomorrow, but I do think that they are starting to be on borrowed time at this point. There are contracts in place and replacement lift, schedules, etc would have to be worked out. I also don’t trust United management. They could very well invest in the single class 50 seat product in an effort to milk it for all its worth. They could also say what people want to hear in an effort to keep hopes up and string them along so that they serve United’s needs until they announce bad news. They were hard selling Aviate and XJT as a career path to United right up until the day that they announced that they would be letting one regional go. They may breathe some life into the 145’s and 200’s and keep those carriers around for a while, or they might shut another regional down and put good people on the street. I’d say that either scenario could easily happen in the next 3 years or so.