ZeroTT

This is pure supposition.

The likelihood of an orderly, well-announced wind-down is low, especially because the airplanes have little or no resale value ... ie Air Wisconsin will probably do best by eking every last flight out of them.

In AW's favor is united's bad and worsening regional lift problem. To the extent that AW has airplanes it can operate, United may well keep paying the bills long past the contract end.

On the other side, pilot recruitment and retention is a huge problem everywhere. Captains are a problem but a scaleable one - lose 20% of your captains, cut 20% of your flights it will probably workout. But if 14/20 people who run the schoolhouse leave ... that may have started a six month winddown clock. And there could be idiosyncratic stuff that's unknowable without seeing AW's books - is the corporate structure such that they default on some loan if they lose 20% of their flights? Or can the place dwindle to half its current size and still stumble on.

If I had to bet, I would guess that sometime in early Jan 2023 things will just stop. Poof - deadhead home from DSM, leave the jet at the gate and someone will fly it to Arizona in the spring.

jw1212

With Air Wisconsins's contract with United Airlines ending in 2023, does Air Wisconsin have any opportunity continue to fly past that 2023 deadline?

KirillTheThrill

Mostly not, if any it will be scraps for scrap pay. Look elsewhere, plenty of opportunities, be smart.

ZeroTT

Any? Like not zero ... I suppose yes

Anything significant ... probably not

United/Kirby have left a pretty good paper trail here. Ample discussion of how use of single-class RJ's are going to be restricted and they don't have a long-term future with United.
https://liveandletsfly.com/united-ai...regional-jets/

Also ample discussion of how the pilot shortage is reducing United Express flight hours broadly.
(https://www.flightglobal.com/network...147198.article)

So United is scrounging/scrambling to find RJ pilots, and the planes AW has are not the ones United wants. Conclusion: any resources United can muster to prop up it's regional partners are not going to AW (or commutair). To the extent that AW is still a going concern (with sim instructors, and LCA's and captains) in 2023, I'm sure United will pay it to fly. Just a question of whether AW makes it that far.

F9 Bag Room

Time to dust off those "Do I Have a Future Here?" bag tags

TransWorld

I will lay a wager the answer is no.

3400

Hear me out.

ZW is struggling badly to cover the flying it has. But so is everyone else. I’m not entirely convinced that UA could fill a ZW-sized hole in its network if it does choose not to renew. C5 can’t really take any more flying, not sure if anyone else can either.

It might be a “we don’t have a choice” thing for United.

idlethrust

Don’t believe that
UA is taking deliveries of new 73s each month for this very same reason. Their plan was and is to shrink 50 seat flying at uax and replace a lot of the flying with mainline and or 76 seat aircraft and abandon unprofitable markets and it’s happening. Some people just don’t want to accept it .

TransWorld

Bingo. It is going to happen whether people want to accept it or not.

RabidW0mbat

there are more and more senior people bailing now then I ever imagined. I think those with any sense have enacted an escape plan. I’m out in a few months.