Originally Posted by Flaps1check (Post 2753643)

Does it really matter how many seats are on RJ’s? I say this because its my belief that there will be no Regional airlines in the US in 10 years. We will be flying these aircraft or the flight will just be done with mainline aircraft. The top 5 airlines by size have approximately a combined 54,769 pilots, 23,285 of who are set to retire at age 65 during that 10 year period. According to numbers found here at airline pilot central there are approximately 20,472 current regional pilots. Those numbers are not sustainable for the majors and definitely not for the regionals. These numbers don’t take into account the other majors retirements, military pilots, or the pilots flying corporate. I want scope and will vote no on any contract that does not have industry standard scope. However it is my overall belief that there will be no more regionals in 10 years.

Originally Posted by Beta82 (Post 2753765)

If I had a nickel every time I heard this...The regionals will be alive and well in 10 years. You talk as if there are going to no more pilots, ever. The majors have a huge stake in keeping the regionals going and aren't going to let them go away. Ab initio anyone? It's possible for there to be some consolidation of regional airlines in the future and they possibly could become smaller. Going away? Not in anyone career on this board.

Originally Posted by Flaps1check (Post 2753643)

Does it really matter how many seats are on RJ’s? I say this because its my belief that there will be no Regional airlines in the US in 10 years. We will be flying these aircraft or the flight will just be done with mainline aircraft. The top 5 airlines by size have approximately a combined 54,769 pilots, 23,285 of who are set to retire at age 65 during that 10 year period. According to numbers found here at airline pilot central there are approximately 20,472 current regional pilots. Those numbers are not sustainable for the majors and definitely not for the regionals. These numbers don’t take into account the other majors retirements, military pilots, or the pilots flying corporate. I want scope and will vote no on any contract that does not have industry standard scope. However it is my overall belief that there will be no more regionals in 10 years.

Originally Posted by Varsity (Post 2753879)

More than 1000 CFI's a year hit the magic 1500 hrs. 1000 pilots a year coming out of the military, another 500 coming out of corporate/135.. another 500 coming from overseas or out of the woodwork (non flying jobs).

The regionals will always exist.

Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 2753937)

I’ll play your game.

1,000 CFI + 1,000 exMil + 500 Corp/135 + 500 Overseas/Out of the Woodwork = 3,000 total supply of pilots each year.

In 2018, the total hiring by the major airlines, LCCs, and major cargo was 4,606.

In 2013, just five years ago, the total hiring was only 1,084.

FAPA.aero | Pilot Hiring History - All Time

Boeing has forecast the US needs averaging 5,000 to 6,000 pilots per year over the next 20 years.

Hmmmm....

Originally Posted by Flaps1check (Post 2754071)

I was trying to bring stats to the argument as you have. I guess we are in the "fake news" category. Never would have thought I would be in that category. it is what it is, time will tell.

Originally Posted by majorpilot (Post 2754147)

So, the facts/numbers actually do NOT support your position and the cry is “fake news”? Really? To quote the main champion of that pathetic technique ... “Sad...”

Originally Posted by Flaps1check (Post 2754214)

Okay with Boeing forecasting a need of 5,000-6,000 pilots a year over the next 20 years. Where do you suppose they are going to come from?

Originally Posted by Flaps1check (Post 2754214)

Okay with Boeing forecasting a need of 5,000-6,000 pilots a year over the next 20 years. Where do you suppose they are going to come from?