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Old 05-30-2020, 10:41 PM
  #251  
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OTZ is only doing what legions of SEA pilots have done before him. Talkin’ about tidbits and doin’ extrapolation math. They also become instructors and union committee members. That way there is plenty of tidbits for their talkin’ and lotsa numbers for their extrapolatin’.
Everyone one in the bottom third of either seat has ridden in this rodeo before. Except some mil dudes, some legacy brats and a few stray corporate guys. No one needs Brad or Will to tell them whats coming(except those dudes). All the other chatter about what we fly, where we fly, who we fly...Thats just chatter. Let OTZ carry on about what he carries on about....
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Old 05-30-2020, 11:41 PM
  #252  
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1 View Post
My numbers were for the whole month of May dude, and my numbers are really accurate. Alaska hopes to run 70ish% load factors June, July, and August... with about 30-35% of the capacity we were planning on this Summer, with a yeild that would make you blush. October we hope to be at 40% capacity with 45% load, November 55% capacity with 50% load, December cross your fingers 60/60 then soften a little until late spring. Summer of 2021 will be a smashing success, if we can run 70/70 for that three month period. Yield is way down though, if all that happens and yield goes to were we expect, ‘2021 full year will be break even or a trickle profit.
I'm curious how they're planning on 70% load factors when we're not selling middle seats or half of first?
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Old 05-31-2020, 12:17 AM
  #253  
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Originally Posted by ws6formula View Post
I'm curious how they're planning on 70% load factors when we're not selling middle seats or half of first?
Blocking middle seats is not long for this world.
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Old 05-31-2020, 04:15 AM
  #254  
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Originally Posted by ws6formula View Post
I'm curious how they're planning on 70% load factors when we're not selling middle seats or half of first?
Everyone wants me to prove something.... So I think I said “70ish%”. Right now I believe we are restricting load factors to 66%. For June and July, I believe it’s 73%. Right now August will have no restrictions.
So if we run 65% June, 69% July, 74% August-we would have a load factor average, for the three months at 69.3 percent... I would argue that is a “70ish%”... Heck I would argue 66.8 is a “70ish%”. And since there will be more capacity in July than June and more in August than July, if you use a large pencil, one of those big red ones from Kindergarten, maybe you could see these numbers as, somewhat accurate? But hey, thanks for the fact checking and calling me out!
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Old 05-31-2020, 09:34 AM
  #255  
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1 View Post
Everyone wants me to prove something.... So I think I said “70ish%”. Right now I believe we are restricting load factors to 66%. For June and July, I believe it’s 73%. Right now August will have no restrictions.
So if we run 65% June, 69% July, 74% August-we would have a load factor average, for the three months at 69.3 percent... I would argue that is a “70ish%”... Heck I would argue 66.8 is a “70ish%”. And since there will be more capacity in July than June and more in August than July, if you use a large pencil, one of those big red ones from Kindergarten, maybe you could see these numbers as, somewhat accurate? But hey, thanks for the fact checking and calling me out!
If you stop touting your numbers as fact, they probably wont get fact checked. But you knew that already.
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Old 05-31-2020, 09:51 AM
  #256  
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Originally Posted by NewGuy01 View Post
If you stop touting your numbers as fact, they probably wont get fact checked. But you knew that already.
I have never touted my numbers as facts. They are just what I have heard. They are rough sketches and wags, that is all anyone has right now. At this point they are markers, expectations that result in a very important number to many, that is headcount. I wouldn’t publish them if I didn’t think they will be accurate. I am giving people something to look at, to guide, and encourage, I am most certainly not giving facts.

The union is giving out garbage, the company is playing very close to the vest. There is not a lot of information out there, most want that info.
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Old 05-31-2020, 12:29 PM
  #257  
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1 View Post
Everyone wants me to prove something.... So I think I said “70ish%”. Right now I believe we are restricting load factors to 66%. For June and July, I believe it’s 73%. Right now August will have no restrictions.
So if we run 65% June, 69% July, 74% August-we would have a load factor average, for the three months at 69.3 percent... I would argue that is a “70ish%”... Heck I would argue 66.8 is a “70ish%”. And since there will be more capacity in July than June and more in August than July, if you use a large pencil, one of those big red ones from Kindergarten, maybe you could see these numbers as, somewhat accurate? But hey, thanks for the fact checking and calling me out!
You took that way too personal. I was just asking how your number lined up against the only other info we have which is that we're not selling those seats.
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Old 05-31-2020, 02:49 PM
  #258  
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You know what, I published the numbers I had early to try and help. I have quickly figured out, most people can’t be helped. I have seen this rodeo before, the few jobs out there get gobbled up in REVERSE seniority order. For trying to help all I get is blow back and nonsense, people trying to paint me as anti labor, because they can’t refute my arguments or numbers. UAL has clarity, DAL got clarity today, those smart enough to not get caught up in Stockholm syndrome will now get the few jobs that are out there, while our guys install Direct TV dishes. Thanks will.... Good on you DAL C44!
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Old 05-31-2020, 03:33 PM
  #259  
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Maybe he's leaving for good this time? Oh no!
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Old 05-31-2020, 04:29 PM
  #260  
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Originally Posted by ws6formula View Post
You took that way too personal.
He gets his feelings hurt quite easily and quite often. Huffs and puffs and threatens to leave.

But he never does.
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