Alaska Blue and a LUV triangle
07-16-2020, 12:43 PM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,170
Alaska Blue and a LUV triangle
Pretty confident about most of this:
GK, playing his best William Seward, approached AS in a let’s make a deal for Alaska. AS board was lukewarm to the idea as the exchanges seemed to try and pull a Seward style distressed value deal. It is my understanding that LUV is still pressing but AS is still desperately trying to stay independent.
Jetblue has also expressed interest, going so far as to secure secret scope relief from its pilots, if a merger were to happen, in exchange for a no furlough clause and a slush fund, for a possible SLI with Alaska. This is a MEC NDA, it is not quite as credible as the SWA info, but I think it’s legit. This front is stone cold quiet, so I am guessing it is still very much in play.
Where are NWAA, Beanie baby, and AL....
AAL to furlough 2100 this fall and another 1900 in the spring if things don’t turn around. Likely bankruptcy by April of 2021😱. This rumor comes as the gold standard, I have such confidence in its origins that I would bet it every day in Vegas and twice on Sundays. I know, I know, AAL is getting “A lot of negative press about full flights in the news media, maybe you have heard about this.”
Remember these quotes... “AAL and Spirit are running new hire classes while we furlough.”
How do we like Alaska now?
Alaska MEC take your bow
No furloughs, 1100+- leaves, most should be awarded.👍
GK, playing his best William Seward, approached AS in a let’s make a deal for Alaska. AS board was lukewarm to the idea as the exchanges seemed to try and pull a Seward style distressed value deal. It is my understanding that LUV is still pressing but AS is still desperately trying to stay independent.
Jetblue has also expressed interest, going so far as to secure secret scope relief from its pilots, if a merger were to happen, in exchange for a no furlough clause and a slush fund, for a possible SLI with Alaska. This is a MEC NDA, it is not quite as credible as the SWA info, but I think it’s legit. This front is stone cold quiet, so I am guessing it is still very much in play.
Where are NWAA, Beanie baby, and AL....
AAL to furlough 2100 this fall and another 1900 in the spring if things don’t turn around. Likely bankruptcy by April of 2021😱. This rumor comes as the gold standard, I have such confidence in its origins that I would bet it every day in Vegas and twice on Sundays. I know, I know, AAL is getting “A lot of negative press about full flights in the news media, maybe you have heard about this.”
Remember these quotes... “AAL and Spirit are running new hire classes while we furlough.”
How do we like Alaska now?
Alaska MEC take your bow
No furloughs, 1100+- leaves, most should be awarded.👍
Last edited by OTZeagle1; 07-16-2020 at 01:25 PM.
07-16-2020, 01:50 PM
#6
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,252
Slow news day?
Although SWA is not utterly implausible.
The buses are actually a plus... an opportunity to try out a smallish sample on a live certificate for a while before they determine THEIR fleet plan. If they decide to revert to single-type, it's easy, simply phase them out on schedule. Lot easier than building your own fleet from scratch just for a test run. They can pivot either way.
For those not following, the max crisis had SWA actually reconsidering their single-fleet strategy. COVID aside, if the max grounding had occurred 5-7 years down the line it would have put SW into BK and possibly liquidation, too much of their fleet would have been max and therefore INOP (AS of course would be in the same boat in that scenario).
Although SWA is not utterly implausible.
The buses are actually a plus... an opportunity to try out a smallish sample on a live certificate for a while before they determine THEIR fleet plan. If they decide to revert to single-type, it's easy, simply phase them out on schedule. Lot easier than building your own fleet from scratch just for a test run. They can pivot either way.
For those not following, the max crisis had SWA actually reconsidering their single-fleet strategy. COVID aside, if the max grounding had occurred 5-7 years down the line it would have put SW into BK and possibly liquidation, too much of their fleet would have been max and therefore INOP (AS of course would be in the same boat in that scenario).
07-16-2020, 01:53 PM
#7
Gets his house in order
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 315
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Slow news day?
Although SWA is not utterly implausible.
The buses are actually a plus... an opportunity to try out a smallish sample on a live certificate for a while before they determine THEIR fleet plan. If they decide to revert to single-type, it's easy, simply phase them out on schedule. Lot easier than building your own fleet from scratch just for a test run.
For those not following, the max crisis has SWA actually reconsidering their single-fleet strategy. COVID aside, if the max grounding had occurred 5-7 years down the line it would have put SW into BK and possibly liquidation, too much of their fleet would have been max and therefore INOP (AS of course would be in the same boat in that scenario).
Although SWA is not utterly implausible.
The buses are actually a plus... an opportunity to try out a smallish sample on a live certificate for a while before they determine THEIR fleet plan. If they decide to revert to single-type, it's easy, simply phase them out on schedule. Lot easier than building your own fleet from scratch just for a test run.
For those not following, the max crisis has SWA actually reconsidering their single-fleet strategy. COVID aside, if the max grounding had occurred 5-7 years down the line it would have put SW into BK and possibly liquidation, too much of their fleet would have been max and therefore INOP (AS of course would be in the same boat in that scenario).
07-16-2020, 02:32 PM
#9
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2014
Posts: 40
If any of this is credible (and that is a big if), then AS has few options if SWA decides to go hostile. It is very unlikely that there is a white knight out there who would top a cash offer with a significant change of control premium from SWA, and a stock swap with JB, irrespective of the exchange ratio, would probably not be a preferable alternative for AS shareholders.
Never a dull moment in aviation.
Cheers - Rob.
Never a dull moment in aviation.
Cheers - Rob.
07-16-2020, 03:01 PM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 936
Do you guys only reference what is said on APC or do you actually read about what Gary Kelly has been saying for months now about the future of SWA?
A simple google search will clear up OTZ/MEA’s claims on a SWA buyout. What a joke.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
A simple google search will clear up OTZ/MEA’s claims on a SWA buyout. What a joke.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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