Chrismo01

Hi all,

I have been encountering quite the good problem as of late. I recently got a job offer from AA and have an interview with DL coming up. Either way it has begged the question on whether to leave AS or stay. I don't currently live in an AS base but was planning to move to Seattle soon. Not a huge fan of AA bases but there are a couple that I could see myself living in long term, same with DL. I haven't been at AS for all that long (<1 year, but approaching 1 year quickly), and I am a bit torn on what the right move would be. My main point of concern is the state of the economy, I have a fear of leaving and then being exposed to a furlough whereas staying would've kept me safe. Naturally AA's history in that department is not great, where Alaska is more favorable. To create some clarity, if it weren't for the fear of furlough, I don't think it would be as difficult of a decision for me. Sure, starting all over again and being a probationary pilot and being at the bottom of the list isn't very appealing but I believe it would be worth it in the end. But if it's all cut short because I get furloughed then what's the point. I am interested if anybody else has a similar dilemma or if someone who is more seasoned in the industry and its relationship with the economy have some words of advice. I would also like to point out that it is not lost on me how lucky I am to even have a decision like this. The industry is in an amazing place for people like us right now, and like I said, it's a very good problem to have.

Thanks,
C

ExperimentalAB

Any coming recession will not be a repeat of 2008. Additionally, furloughs are a spectacularly bad look in any tight market like this…if a network carrier is better for you long-term, you’d be a fool not to go.

rmcbear08

Think you kind of just answered it there, but I’ll start with the usual questions first: How old? Married? Kids? Where you would ideally like to live?

The retirement numbers alone at the big 3 in the coming years should shield you from being furloughed if/when things come to that. My guess is that they would just slow/stop hiring instead of putting pilots on the streets if the economy starts to slip into a recession.

Don’t live in fear and have some talking head on the tv or internet scare you into making (or not making) a career decision. Use all the available information you currently have and make the best choice you can for you and your family. Trying to predict what might happen is a fool’s errand and will act as an anchor to achieving your long term goals.

I say take the interview with DL, see what happens and if you get the CJO then decide AA or DL based on where you want to live.

Best of luck to you! It’s a great problem to have for sure.

Chrismo01

Yeah I think you hit the nail on the head. I've been mulling it over and I agree, it's no good to make major career decisions on the back of whether or not something may or may not happen. Thanks for your input!

Chrismo01

Good point, thanks a bunch!

FreqFlyer

Just remember that you are asking on a forum where 90% of the people that regularly post here despise Alaska, therefore they will overwhelmingly tell you to leave.

Only you can really know what is right for you…However I will say, that if you want to live in Seattle, you’re in a great spot with a good stable company. You’re not wrong for wanting job stability and have a fear of being furloughed. Also, remember that Alaska has lots of good changes coming soon like PBS, Golden days, and better reserve rules in the pipeline. Plus we just got a nice pay raise, and 2nd year FO pay is pretty darn good.

Good luck in your decisions…

GoodJet

Personally I really hope you stay at Alaska. You have to do what is right for you and your family. Only you know what those requirements are.

Here are my considerations for how I chose where to work:

1) Paycheck matches the paint on side of the aircraft
2) Commute to work involves a car
3) Live in the most JR base
4) Live where the training happens
5) Somewhat fit in with the culture of the pilot group


1) I was a SkyWest and Alaska was the first place that offered me a job where the paycheck did indeed match the paint job on the aircraft. 2017 was different for hiring. United et al blew me off. Never even got an interview.
2) I can drive to SEA in about 30 minutes on a good day
3) I lived in the most JR base. Now that base is SFO but it's changing fast in 2018 it was Seattle.
4) Seattle is where the training happens. You can pick up training events or work for the training department. They still haven't even sent me a thanks but no thanks. I'll keep applying to be an instructor.
5) I feel like I have a lot more in common with the former VX crowd but I appreciate we don't rush around at this airline. Overall I don't mind the work culture. You won't know what your day at the office will be like until you start working somewhere.

That's what worked for me. You have to do what works for you.

Brickfire

The industry went through a spectacularly difficult transition in the 25 years after deregulation.

The first half of that period was characterized by Chapter 7 and a lot of pilots on the street permanently

The second half was Chapter 11's and a lot of pilots on the street temporarily.

And all the FE airplanes got retired in that timeframe too.

The industry has changed/adapted/consolidated and the risks of MAJOR furloughs is low.

So take AA or DL ... it's not even close.

Chrismo01

Thanks guys, I think if I already had roots in an AS base it would be an easy choice. But I really appreciate your advice!

Chrismo01

I am arriving at that conclusion as well, thanks!