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ALGT below $120???

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Old 08-17-2017, 03:10 PM
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Default ALGT below $120???

ALGT is hovering around half of the $234 it hit 2 years ago. Thoughts?
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Old 08-17-2017, 03:17 PM
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Don't invest in the company or industry you work in...especially airlines, the industry is fragile and the potential downside is varied and vast.

Ok to exercise options if you have them, but don't hold it longer than you have to.
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Old 08-17-2017, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Don't invest in the company or industry you work in...especially airlines, the industry is fragile and the potential downside is varied and vast.

Ok to exercise options if you have them, but don't hold it longer than you have to.
What about the employees who held SWA options from day zero? That worked out rather well. Depends on the company. How much do you believe the model will inspire Wall Street analysts going forward? Granted, the "pay shortage" going on at the airlines probably won't inspire much confidence in the bottom lines over the next decade. The pilotless plane investment would be the bandwagon to jump on if it ever looks like a reality. Wall Street loves employees losing jobs to automation.
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Old 08-17-2017, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Whiskey4 View Post
What about the employees who held SWA options from day zero?
A lot more UAL employees lost their butts on ESOP...

If you want to get in on the ground floor of a unicorn, go to silicon value...the odds are terrible there, but still far better than the airlines as far as that goes.
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Old 08-17-2017, 04:53 PM
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There is a lot of doubt lately among analysts whether the ULCC model is sustainable. Check Spirit (SAVE) performance, and Frontier postponed their IPO. The Big 3 are getting aggressive and competing with ULCCs by offering bare bones fares in some parts of coach class. I'm not sure if ALGT is in the same business model as Spirit, so maybe this shouldn't be dragging the stock down.
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Old 08-17-2017, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206 View Post
There is a lot of doubt lately among analysts whether the ULCC model is sustainable. Check Spirit (SAVE) performance, and Frontier postponed their IPO. The Big 3 are getting aggressive and competing with ULCCs by offering bare bones fares in some parts of coach class. I'm not sure if ALGT is in the same business model as Spirit, so maybe this shouldn't be dragging the stock down.
Nothing new, been going on for decades. Devaluing their product has never worked.
Kirby went after Spirit at DFW. When they raised their prices again it just caused Spirits stock to rally.

The legacies repeat the same process over and over. I'll never understand it. They get wrapped around the axle and slash their own fares over a very small segment of passenger traffic. My opinion, I think they should continue to charge a premium and focus on providing a superior product.
The ULCC model is here to stay, it's almost entirely focused on leisure travel. ULCC's don't bat an eye about the legacies. Their competition is Greyhound, Amtrak and the automobile.
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Old 08-17-2017, 05:41 PM
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It's amazing how the stock always drops when the company authorizes a buy back.
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Old 08-17-2017, 05:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Trowserchilli View Post
Nothing new, been going on for decades. Devaluing their product has never worked.

Kirby went after Spirit at DFW. When they raised their prices again it just caused Spirits stock to rally.



The legacies repeat the same process over and over. I'll never understand it. They get wrapped around the axle and slash their own fares over a very small segment of passenger traffic. My opinion, I think they should continue to charge a premium and focus on providing a superior product.

The ULCC model is here to stay, it's almost entirely focused on leisure travel. ULCC's don't bat an eye about the legacies. Their competition is Greyhound, Amtrak and the automobile.


When the legacies match fares it's only for a certain number of tickets and for flights around the same time as the ULCC competition. If AA matches a spirit DFW-wherever flight it's not like they're doing it on all the tickets for all the flights that day.
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Old 08-17-2017, 05:48 PM
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Old 08-17-2017, 06:58 PM
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Originally Posted by JustWatching View Post
It's amazing how the stock always drops when the company authorizes a buy back.
It's more the other way around. Management has had continuous authorization repurchase stock for the last few years; when the price dips, they buy like crazy in order to maximize EPS as cheaply as possible.

Speaking of that, since the YOY numbers have taken a hit the last few quarters, even modest numbers starting 3Q17 are going to look like a reasonable improvement. That should help the price tick up, provided the overall market isn't pulling everything downward.

I'm waiting to see what happens politically over the next few months, but barring any unforeseen events, ALGT could very well end up being a risk worth taking .
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