Akutan Bandit

I was at one of those regionals in the early 2000's and I was very negative (surprised?). On my last crew bus ride out of Dulles, and after I had walked into the C.P.'s office and verbally smacked 'em, I looked around at all the smiling young employees around and wondered if I was missing something. Couldn't figure out what I was missing and if I could be wrong in my opinion of the place. At the time we were the premier model for the new jet regional, backed by Wachovia Bank.

Took a couple years, but after getting large jets the place bankrupted, and liquidated, and everybody lost their job. My friends there scattered to the four winds, with nary a comment about the storm clouds that had been building for years. Even though we had worn United uniforms, there was no flow. There was nothing. Allegiant has something. They solve a problem, which my old company never did.....they provide a service to a large percentage of the population at a low price.

If you aren't gonna fly an airplane with the company name painted on it, at least make sure your company has a niche. Make sure you solve a problem for somebody rich, or somebody with a large demographic trend, or somebody in power. My regional had none of those things and I wasn't wrong at all to be 100% negative regarding their prospects.

Captainbfv

Sounds like you descirbed ACA. But you're right, Allegiant does have a nitch. The recession is here, and 2023 will slow things down for everyone. Allegiant appears to be ready to pull out the (2008) play book and just coast while things recover.

captnate702

Allegiant took off during the housing recession. Some different dynamics this time around. But I’d be surprised if they don’t navigate it better than most. Scale back the flying and get back to double digit margins.

The 20-30% margins will never return (30% is never happening again) but double digit margins will come back with the recession and the banks will reward Allegiant management again.

Margaritaville

I wonder why no one is discussing why the stock price has been in free fall for months while every other airline is holding their own. About to hit 10 year lows.

Apparently Wall Street doesn't share your optimism. Allegiant is now in hostile takeover territory.

9easy

Even AA was able to make a half billion dollars last quarter. Our earnings are out Nov 2, it will be telling if we are able to keep the mojo going or if things are as dire as they seem out on the line. We should be making a killing with super high load factors, if we could only staff the flights....

Akutan Bandit

Holding their own is being generous. Barely holding it. Fuel costs and labor costs and soon borrowing costs are gonna clobber all of 'em and the share prices show that with a typical lagging indication. Of course SAVE is bid by the purchase offer, but they are all in sad shape from a stock market perspective. I guess that's why Berkshire just puked it all quickly and didn't wait, they saw this potential coming.

Akutan Bandit

What is the schedule on your debt. This cycle will be most unkind to those who hold debt, the most since I was born and that was in the 1960's.

AA doesn't have any MOJO. It has a government Put. And a name.

Anybody paying attention has to wonder how this ****show got to this point. The debt, the labor issues, the lack of a plan for fossil fuels and potential climate costs. This all happened while airlines were renting management "skills" at great cost to keep them out of trouble and have some kind of vision for what comes next. You've lately been paying almost $10 million dollars a year for one guy on that team of heroes.

Be Realistic

Allegiant may have had a niche in the past, but now Sun Country is closing in on our market cap, and Avelo and Breeze are all biting at our point to point small city flying (2 of 3 of those are run by ex allegiant employees and the 3rd by Jet blue founder so they may make a meaningful impact on us).

Allegiant (Management) cannot and will not get through this in one piece if management doesn't wake up.

At least we don't have to endure the air waitress videos any more. They finally came to their senses on that!

IFartInYourSeat

And they’re coming after Allegiant too! Sun Country may not have ATW, but they’re surrounding it by flying out of Madison, Green Bay, and Milwaukee. They’re destinations include Florida, the SW, and other vacation destinations.

I can only imagine what the other airlines are doing to chew into Allegiant’s market.

And we aren’t even talking about the 800 lbs gorilla in the room of SWA that is ramping up to 5500+ flights a day and expanding their midcon strategy once the staffing and planes are in place (sounds like it is)

TangoIndiaMike1

What’s everyone think about the United Florida base rumor going around. Is it gonna be MCO. This is just going to make the mass exit even worse.