Future growth / Upgrade Times
 

Hi,

I’m currently upgrading at an AA wholly owned, and looking into options outside of the flow.

A couple of friends that fly for Allegiant told me that hiring should ramp up again in Oct this year at roughly 40/month and the plan is to increase the pilot group to nearly double by 2020. Any truth to this?

I’d be happy with Allegiant as a final career place if in the short term a quick upgrade is a reality. I’d be happy to take any base for upgrade initially and then eventually move to OAK once I can hold it as CA.

For me I it doesn’t make sense to leave my flow to AA unless an upgrade is realistic within 12-14months of being hired.

Any thoughts or other input would be appreciated on projections of growth and uograde times.

I’ll bite....

Ok, so if you’re close to upgrading at a AA regional feeder with a flow through, then that means you’ll probably flow to AA (pending no industry hiccups) within 6+ years.

Right now because we’re not hiring (per say) the upgrade at Allegiant is 3 to 4 years.

It’s hard to say how quick the upgrade will be until the fleet transition is over. The reason I say that is because once the transition is finalized we (current pilots) will have a clearer picture of what direction the company wants to go.

I’ve been here two years and I bc of my background I plan on worst case. Worst case for me is upgrade in 4 years, best case is 2 more years.

Realistically speaking unless we add more airplanes to the fleet (which seems like that’s the plan) then upgrade could be about 2 to 3 years.

Here’s my advice tho...

You’re now looking to upgrade at this regional, which means if you work hard enough you might break 6 figures. As a second year FO here you should be able to break 6 figures.

If that’s not good enough then you can roll the dice and hope for the best until you flow (6-ish years I would assume). By then IF all goes well you should already be a captain here if you’re hired on the first wave.

In other words you need to pick, either roll the dice with Allegiant and make descent money and upgrade in 2 to 4 years, or roll the dice for the flow and make ok money at the regional waiting for the flow and then go to AA or find that you got stuck at a regional. Good luck


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FYI, I was at eagle back in 2007. If I would’ve stayed I would have flowed already most likely. Yet now I’m here and really enjoying the job, home every day and hoping for the best... things are looking great here IMHO.

You have to decide what you want long term...
reach the “Legacy dream”, go on 4+ day trips, upgrade in 15+ years or go to Allegiant, hold Oakland pretty quick (junior base), be home every night, and possibly upgrade in under 5 years.


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Thanks. I’ve been here over 18 months and flew my 1000 for upgrade (not my first CA gig, just my first in 121 world) in a year, so willing to keep hustling. That puts my flow date earlyish 2022 for now to AA.

All that said I never had my heart set on a legacy and always planned to move to the SF area long term and mostly days trips would be nice.

The clincher for me is the supposed growth and if that will translate to a relative short upgrade. I don’t mind shifting around bases the first 2 years and eventually settle in to OAK long term.

I don’t mean to come across as entitled either, just weighing up my options before I’m in too deep here and also miss a hiring wave at allegiant.

All in all I feel well placed either way, just seeing if the gamble of a quick-ish upgrade will pay off.

I hear ya. Upgrade is important, but I figure by you being an FO for 18 months and upgrading fairly quickly you’re trying to find the place that will offer the same type of fast movement.

But like many “veterans” in the industry I can tell you it’s hard to predict or even tell you something that’ll sweeten your ear to make a decision.

If the Bay Area is your goal then look for airlines that have bases there. 4 years to flow to AA doesn’t seem to bad either. Every/any decision in this industry is a roll of the dice.

I chose to hang my hat here for a reason, and whatever happens here I’m in. Hopefully upgrade will come sooner rather than later, if it doesn’t I’ll be happy making good money in the right seat.
Just make a list of pros and cons and make a choice based on the info you have at this point in time



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2 priorities of seasoned legacy veterans: 1) schedules. 2) money. Upgrading generally falls further down the list for a variety of reasons.

Most could care less which seat they occupy so long as those 2 priorities are addressed. Live where you want, fly the schedules you want, make decent coin. It's why you'll find so many grizzled old 3-strippers at the legacies. FOs can make more in a wide body, with far better schedules, trips, lifestyle etc than a sweaty, stressed out narrow body captain flying 3-4 legs a day in crappy domestic routes. Some believe the captain sets the tone but at the majors and legacies it's not really the case. If there's an a$$ in the fight deck it sucks regardless of where you sit. Many cases of FOs telling captains where to go. It's a job, the romance is over, and the FAs don't laugh at captain jokes either.

If you go to allegiant, do it for what they have to offer. Great schedules, Good equipment, great bases. Upgrades are an elusive target which change dramatically so I would avoid that as a primary decision factor.

You are in a great place and time in this profession. You can pick where you want to go and stand a fairly good chance of getting there so understanding what will work best for you should be the first step.

I hear what you’re saying and agree with all points.

The only difference in this case is that at Allegiant CA=money as there are no long haul widebody aircraft there. That’s why it factors heavily on a decision to jump to Allegiant, amongst a lot of other factors based on my own personal situation.

For me I could care less which seat I’m in. It all comes down to money earned over the next 10 years for me and location.

Yes, on straight comparison captains make more cheddar, but realize there are FOs that make more in their W2 on SAME equipment as the guy sitting to their left. Growth and retirements have made the typical 5 year FO these days fairly senior and can therefor access a lot more premium overtime than junior captains. Figure the typical 5 year FO making 70% of captains pay. Why upgrade to get a 30% increase when you can often snag 50% to 100% more hourly, with better flexibility than a junior captain? It's why so many FOs bypass upgrade for years, until they have the same flexibility and overtime opportunities. Food for thought. Granted, that argument goes away once said captain becomes senior, but that's decades away at legacies.

Allegiant is a great airline for certain people, but if money is your primary goal, you may want to do some research. The money is in the work rules, so make sure to compare contracts. Ie, Assuming you upgrade to Captain at Allegiant in 5 years, you will be at $186/hour; figuring 90-95 hours per month you'll be in the $210 - $220K range per year. Not bad, but looking at the big 4, you'll find the hourly rate for 5 year FOs to be close to that, but they can easily make a LOT more because of contractual rigs. It only gets better from there.

Money being the driver, is there a reason you're not targeting the legacies? Flood gates are opening everywhere so you can be choosy. You mentioned lack of wide bodies at Allegiant, why not go elsewhere? FO's are getting WB right out of initial training at FedEx, within 2-3 years at UAL, quick NB upgrades at DAL, and second year SWA FOs doing 130-150 trips per month. There's a thread on here on W-2s that is (mostly) an interesting and enlightening read.

Apologies if I'm telling you what you already know, it just seems you might be overlooking some important details. Hope the helps.

I would not come to Allegiant with Oakland base as my main reason. It's the smallest base with horrible schedules and has never grown, minus a recently added flight or two. Could it grow? Maybe. Could it close down or stagnate for 5 years, just as likely.

AA is a much better career but if you had to choose between a 2019 DOH at Allegiant or a late 2022 DOH at AA that may or may not happen, it's hard to say what would be better.

One thing to consider about Allegiant is that people above a certain seniority level rarely leave until retirement. So even if you upgrade early, you could find yourself on reserve and poor QOL for a long time. As said above, many of our senior FOs make more than the junior CAs and have a rock star QOL. It's common for these guys to credit 100 hours with 17 days off in a base with good schedules (long legs and lots of premium trips). IWA comes to mind.

I guess your bottom line should be whether you want to make big money over the course of your career at a legacy but be gone all the time, or make ok money and be home every night (for now… there is no guarantee we will stay that way). If you're young (below 40) it might be batter to choose the flow to AA because you will make millions more over the course of your career. Plus, a senior wide body FO at a legacy can easily make AAY CA pay. With room to grow. But if you're sick of travel, or have a family, this might be a good choice.

Thanks for the replies guys. Good food for thought.

Can anyone answer whether the alleged growth and hiring number by 2020 has any truth to it at all?

No, 20 a month and 50% growth (13XX list) with 150 planes by 2021 is the goal.

Ok that’s what I was after, appreciate the heads up.

Just a headsup OAK has very little flying and is a hard place to make money. It’s great to be on reserve. Also it has only 1 plane and the CA slots are pretty full with locals who aren’t planning on leaving.

Also good info, thanks!

Growth in aircraft but not in pilots. Actual rumors of furloughs and I'm not BS'ing you.

Future growth / Upgrade Times
 

Before you spread this rumor, make sure you know what you’re talking about. Just because they are reducing the headcount per aircraft does not mean they are going to furlough. Those words were taken out of context. If anything we are growing aircraft and they will slowly gain more airplanes while reducing headcount per aircraft. Stop freaking out.


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While the company's ridiculous stand on the PBS system is going to bite them in the behind, the furlough question is more than a little strange. The last investment presentation clearly demonstrated that the growth in aircraft was going to continue to approx 115 airframes by EOY 2020. The projected staffing numbers were going from about 9.6 crews to 7.8 within the same period. This projection is nothing new...it's merely a different perspective from how the scheduling is going to work and who it affects. The company wants to maximize the number of flights while not having to carry what they consider to be unnecessary overhead...we only are going full blast 6 months out of the year (for now). Realistically, it's a business decision on their part and that it would impact our lives in a negative manner is hardly a surprise, nor could we expect management to care. Who it affects is also not a surprise..basically the senior guys who are cruising in the big bucks are going to have to work more for what they make, the pure reservists will undoubtedly work more, particularly with respect to more rescue flights due to short staffing. Peeps barely above the Mendoza line of pure reserve probably won't see much in the way of change, except hopefully few pure reserve slots in the bigger bases and more mixed lines. The fact that we are about to be short staffed again really isn't the issue...the issue is the egregious non-compliance on the part of the company with regards to getting rid of the solver and finally getting around to honoring seniority appropriately in terms of scheduling.

why don't you apply at Allegiant and see what happens.

If you don't get the job, the decision will be made for you.

United has thousands of pilots and hundreds of planes based just across the BAY! The last system bid placed 45 of 47 new hires in the class into FO spot in SFO. FO's in SFO on NB will be holding lines before 2019 hits!! Just food for thought. :rolleyes: Good Luck with your job search!

Thanks. Obviously united would be ideal, and I plan on applying there once I finish my CA upgrade in a couple of weeks in addition to Allegiant. I’m realistic though and know there’s a lot of good applicants out there so just keeping my options open.

Yeah, really, No Offence, (I am NK myself), but how many people have to choose between allegiant or United.

Usually those people who have to choose come to Allegiant first and then get hired by United.

How about guys "qualified" for UAL but want to watch their kids grow up and not be gone half the month for the next 20 years...

It's always funny when people act like getting hired at United etc is so easy. The UA board has plenty of people with amazing resumes and internal recs who can't even get an email invite for the Hogan, much less pass that crazy thing and the subsequent interview.

Yes I chuckle when someone says why don’t you just goto (insert X, Y, Z.. legacy here)?

Many of us are hustling, even at an AA wholly owned with flow to make that next step sooner than just waiting it out for your number to come up.

Keep chasing that legacy... I’ll just sit here making $2142.85 per block hour flown as a first year FO... nothing to see here

2nd or 3rd yr FOs making 13K a month hustling just a lil bit but still home every night is not uncommon. It’s a great gig. Love it.

I'm still on year two pay and fairly junior in my base, I've broken the 10k line four of the six months this year and could have been five but had vacation and worked a little as possible.

Not Legacy pay, but in the last year and a half, I've spent two nights in a hotel (not counting training). I'll take that all day long...

Yep definitely possible to make those numbers. The best for me still is living close to base, bidding reserve and getting called in once, if that.

We (Southwest) have a base there that you would go senior at very quickly! It's pretty much the base we all start out at, but then want out due to the cost of living. You will get off reserve QUICK, and be holding a line in no time.

We get a lot of crap at SW. "They taxi at V-1" blahblahblah, but any new FO who has taken my advise on how to work the system has gotten to $200k/yr pretty much right away. Our hard working Captains really do make $450-$475k/yr all and all. It's extremely common / not the exception. But youll be getting paid less per flight hour than than say a Delta 7-3 driver.

But you won't be wasting time in airports between legs, you won't be away from home for 34-30 hr layovers. It's not as good as the Allegiant's program as far as being home every night, but it's the 2nd best gig as far as being home goes.

I'm a huge fan of Allegiant. Always have been. I'm not brain washed by my airline. Let's face it, I work there because they hired me, and I applied everywhere. They were just the 1st to call so that is where I am. However, I do think I am pretty lucky. It was either there or the Big Brown.

Yet another one. Yes, my advice is just call SWA up and tell them you want to work there. I'm sure you'll be in class next week. Be sure to mention you want OAK. It's that easy to get hired at a big 4.

I don’t think that was the message at all.

Seemed like a positive and supporting post not a disparaging one to me.

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Me too.

Howdy. I received the "we're interested in moving forward with you" email. I live in Jersey. PIT and AVL are probably the closest bases. A friend has a friend who works at G4 and mentioned something about virtual basing. Can anyone elaborate on that if it's actually true?

Also, are there more trips these days that have overnights, or is it still 99% day trips?

Virtual base... or VBD is going away. After the transition is complete, they will go back to summer TDY’s to the temporary bases. Some may come on here and say no way, but it’s happening.

Still 99.9% scheduled day trips.... for now anyways.

VBD will not go away. Will it be smaller? Yes. Go away completely? No.

I’ve heard VBD will not go away completely but will downsize quite a bit and in this case would be super senior as it’s a pretty lucrative deal.

What are the temporary bases?

I think Myrtle beach is our only temp base now that Destin became a full time base in May.