crxpilot

I read a lot of humming and hawing when the investors inquired about fleet projection for 2019:

Unknown Speaker

Hi. This is actually Matt (00:23:08) on for Brandon. So I was just hoping you could quickly remind us, as you receive the final aircraft and taking the MD-80s out of the fleet, what kind of overhang and pilot training or any other expenses is still kind of related and kind of lingering related to the transition?

D. Scott Sheldon - Allegiant Travel Co.

Yeah. Hi. This is Scott. Yeah, if you look at the number of MD-80 shells (00:23:36), there will be some folks that will be going through training to be available for the March peak. And if you kind of back into any sort of pilot per aircraft metric back to when we had a single fleet type adjusted for the new 117 rules, you could come to a number where you're carrying $30 million to $35 million in excess labor as we grow into it over the next couple years.

And so, it's pretty substantial as far as the actual training events. Everything then is on a scheduled cadence because everyone will be trained on the same fleet type.

Unknown Speaker

Okay. And so, that kind of comes down through the next year or so or what's the timing on that?

D. Scott Sheldon - Allegiant Travel Co.

Yeah, so we bottom obviously at the end of the year. I think we have, in the release, 76 frames. And I think we're growing upwards of 12 to 13 frames next year. And so, you start to gain some of that efficiency back from a single fleet type perspective.

.......

Savanthi N. Syth - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.

Hey, I just had a quick follow-up. On the fleet – I'm sorry, I didn't quite understand. So what do you expect the fleet – I know you've had a few aircraft split from this year to next year, what do you expect to end your 2019? Are you still like thinking of roughly at 100 aircrafts or what should we expect there?

Gregory C. Anderson - Allegiant Travel Co.

Yeah, I mean, that's what we put out there probably. I mean we've seen some delays as we talked about in the last earnings call. I think by 2019, I mean, we're still expecting that number, Savi. But in – when we give our guidance for 2019, there may be some puts and takes on that a little bit.

LoFly

I've gotta say this last one got me, the stagnation is getting real

ecam

I guess some people don't believe anything until they hear it for themselves. If your in the bottom half of this seniority list you better update your stuff. This is looking to get ugly. We are only just now beginning to see the end of the current economic boom. The bottom will be a long way off. This airline is already showing signs of sagging, I can't imagine what it will look like 3 years from now. This is not 2008 we are a very different company now with massive overhead and massive debt. We are already running out of creditors willing to invest in this. It's not looking good going forward. This isn't just one more sky is falling post. It's a wake up call. And those of you who aren't worried because you were here in 2008 and think your so senior it won't effect you you better start learning the FO flows.

G4er

Do you work here?
PF
PNF
On the AB

9easy

Based on Scotts comment, they view us roughly ~150 pilots overstaffed.

LoFly

I don't think (hope) they'll furlough tho. Can you imagine kicking 100+ pilots out when pretty much every single airline on the planet is planning to keep hiring for the next two decades?

CAirBear

A CA I flew with recently has a theory. He thinks this is why the are all of a sudden being complete dick heads now about every single thing you can imagine (think the “no show” policy they tried to implement).

Basically, he thinks they would like to furlough, but aren’t yet. However, by now being a-holes about everything it will start to drive some people away.

Pretty weak if this is the case and I certainly can’t say it would surprise me if this is their “game plan”.

Vegaspilot

It’s working. You combine that with their complete loss of focus on the airline and all the side things they are trying and I know quite a few guys who were “lifers” that are polishing their resumes and sending out apps. I mean the #2 guy here decided to retire rather than deal with it from what I’ve been told.


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dutch rudder

If anyone makes a career decision based on the information in this thread, they are foolish.

Everyone needs to relax. We had a few hang-ups with aircraft deliveries and we have fewer planes than expected, thus we are overstaffed. But this doesn’t mean the company doesn’t want to grow the airline! Sheldon even said 12-13 frames next year. We need pilots to make that happen.

wilco811

MG said a few months ago that no furloughs. So don’t worry.