Getting Hired with No 121 time
#42
Are we there yet??!!
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,010
Nobody minds reality, but let's have it on both sides of the coin. So if bombs fall on NK, does everybody at the airlines stop aging? Retirements are coming regardless of what happens in the world. You would need massive shrinkage of over 5% a year to not need to hire for retirements. And that's just the mandatories. To say nothing of those that leave before 65 or lose their medical, LTD etc.
We are already starting to see some furloughing from the top with single FOS and PBS being implemented. I am guessing somewhere between 8%-10% less folks needed. Hard to tell from the recent seniority list since it also purged the remaining furloughees.
In the even of another black swan event, I predict that 10% would be gone almost immediately and another 5%-10% over the next 12-24 months. Scope would be obliterated and even more flying would be transferred to the regionals. Shrink to profitability would stir its ugly head again and even more flying would be transferred to the code-shares. Just look at how many flights BA has into CONUS vs AA to the UK.
Something about that virtual airline that previous management wanted.
Ever time their is supposed to be a pilot shortage, something happens and there is no longer one.
Hope for the best but plan for the worst.
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 4,662
The average from Jan 2014 to May 2015 was 7293TT and 3790 PIC.
There's been pilots at DAL with 20K plus hired.
#44
(Southwest, FedEx, and UPS are just a few years behind this with their own huge waves.)
The next decade (11-20 years) will see another 40% retire as well (including a lot of the first hired from the regionals).
This does not consider any growth.
Some major external event can happen, it may cause a blip in the system, but the retirement freight train (sorry to mix my metaphors) is barreling down the track. Nothing is going to stop it.
It is like having a 250 knot tailwind.
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2017
Posts: 963
I quite agree. In the next 10 years HALF of all the Legacy Carrier Airline pilots will retire. For American, a little MORE than HALF.
(Southwest, FedEx, and UPS are just a few years behind this with their own huge waves.)
The next decade (11-20 years) will see another 40% retire as well (including a lot of the first hired from the regionals).
This does not consider any growth.
Some major external event can happen, it may cause a blip in the system, but the retirement freight train (sorry to mix my metaphors) is barreling down the track. Nothing is going to stop it.
It is like having a 250 knot tailwind.
(Southwest, FedEx, and UPS are just a few years behind this with their own huge waves.)
The next decade (11-20 years) will see another 40% retire as well (including a lot of the first hired from the regionals).
This does not consider any growth.
Some major external event can happen, it may cause a blip in the system, but the retirement freight train (sorry to mix my metaphors) is barreling down the track. Nothing is going to stop it.
It is like having a 250 knot tailwind.
#48
Well, if a major war happened in Asia or just NK, air travel would seize up fast, followed by a the mother of all economic contractions. That would certainly stop hiring for awhile.
9/11 was only over three airliners striking the US and it took a trillion dollars off the world economy. Now multiply that by a 100 times.
GF
9/11 was only over three airliners striking the US and it took a trillion dollars off the world economy. Now multiply that by a 100 times.
GF
#49
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Position: A330 F/O
Posts: 71
Greetings fellow aviators,
If anyone currenly at AA can answer this for me it would help me greatly. I am currently working at one of the big ME3 as a WB FO. I would like to return to the US with the wife & kids. I am currently sitting at 7600 TT, A320/ A330 TR, 4 yr deg, former US Marine, Pic 1200 hrs (all GA time during my CFI days), no Jet Pic, International experience. Will AA even take a look at me or would it be better if I go to a regional & get Jet Pic time first? Any advice will be appreciated. Getting tired of the ME. Need to return back. Thank you guys.
Regards
Jet
If anyone currenly at AA can answer this for me it would help me greatly. I am currently working at one of the big ME3 as a WB FO. I would like to return to the US with the wife & kids. I am currently sitting at 7600 TT, A320/ A330 TR, 4 yr deg, former US Marine, Pic 1200 hrs (all GA time during my CFI days), no Jet Pic, International experience. Will AA even take a look at me or would it be better if I go to a regional & get Jet Pic time first? Any advice will be appreciated. Getting tired of the ME. Need to return back. Thank you guys.
Regards
Jet
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,930
Greetings fellow aviators,
If anyone currenly at AA can answer this for me it would help me greatly. I am currently working at one of the big ME3 as a WB FO. I would like to return to the US with the wife & kids. I am currently sitting at 7600 TT, A320/ A330 TR, 4 yr deg, former US Marine, Pic 1200 hrs (all GA time during my CFI days), no Jet Pic, International experience. Will AA even take a look at me or would it be better if I go to a regional & get Jet Pic time first? Any advice will be appreciated. Getting tired of the ME. Need to return back. Thank you guys.
Regards
Jet
If anyone currenly at AA can answer this for me it would help me greatly. I am currently working at one of the big ME3 as a WB FO. I would like to return to the US with the wife & kids. I am currently sitting at 7600 TT, A320/ A330 TR, 4 yr deg, former US Marine, Pic 1200 hrs (all GA time during my CFI days), no Jet Pic, International experience. Will AA even take a look at me or would it be better if I go to a regional & get Jet Pic time first? Any advice will be appreciated. Getting tired of the ME. Need to return back. Thank you guys.
Regards
Jet
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