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End of 2017 base/equipment seniority

Old 11-14-2017, 09:05 AM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
Eff Dec 2017 it’s 8,200.



Thanks for pointing out the mistake.


Slice what’s your guess on when 2013 Airways guys will hold group 2 captain?
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Old 11-14-2017, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by mainlineAF View Post
Slice what’s your guess on when 2013 Airways guys will hold group 2 captain?
2018


Filler
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Old 11-14-2017, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik View Post
2018





Filler


That’d be baller but I’m thinking early-mid 2019.
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Old 11-14-2017, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by mainlineAF View Post
That’d be baller but I’m thinking early-mid 2019.
Yea I was gonna say 2020. I think 2018 is overly optimistic.
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Old 11-14-2017, 11:28 AM
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Right now Group 2 CA is around 11,000 seniority.... so one would have to figure out how long it would take a 2013 hire to get to that seniority. I’m guessing a couple of years or so, so 2019 seems about right... but that’s based on 11,000. Maybe it will drop with these new spaced out bid runs.
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Old 11-14-2017, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by aa73 View Post
Right now Group 2 CA is around 11,000 seniority.... so one would have to figure out how long it would take a 2013 hire to get to that seniority. I’m guessing a couple of years or so, so 2019 seems about right... but that’s based on 11,000. Maybe it will drop with these new spaced out bid runs.
2013 is around 11,700... right?
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Old 11-14-2017, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik View Post
2013 is around 11,700... right?
It will be 2018 I think as well. Lots of people bypass upgrade. A younger, possible single, person will be all over it.
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Old 11-14-2017, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik View Post
2013 is around 11,700... right?


Yep right at 11.7 for January 13.
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Old 11-14-2017, 01:17 PM
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Lots and of good estimates. I’d guess early 2019 if they’re 800 numbers away right now.
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Old 11-14-2017, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
If the 797 doesn't get launched soon something has to give. Run tired 767-300’s? Cheap end of production run 330-200’s? New 767-300’s? 787-8’s (fleet commonality benefits)? Take the 350’s and fleet shuffle the current 787-8’s into the 767’s routes (please, oh please, just do it!).

Let’s start the over/under line for when the decision will be made - I’d guess fall 2019. That is my guess for when a 350 decision has to be made which triggers secondary fleet decisions.
The Boeing MOM aircraft is in the process of being spun up now. They wouldn’t be putting together management teams and clearing space if they didn’t think there was a market. Delta, United and American all have aging 757’s will no real airframe to replace it. The 767 line is technically still open but there are only freighters scheduled for production for now, though that could be changed relatively quickly.
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