Future of the three WO's?
 

Envoy Air
140/145 15 (Trans State to Envoy)
140/145 75 (Just a guess, anyone know the actual number?)
175 20 (Compass to Envoy)
175 44 + 10 + 15 + (61 Options) = 130
Total 240

PSA Airlines
200 35
700 22 (Envoy to PSA)
700 39
900 54 + 15 + (15 Options) = 84
200 -35 (Retirement)
Total 145

Piedmont Airlines
145 13 (Envoy to Piedmont)
145 4 (Envoy to Piedmont Assuming they can staff 4 more)
145 43
Total 60

Total WO Aircraft 445

SkyWest
700 39
700 12 (ExpressJet to SkyWest)

Mesa
900 64

Republic
175 85

Total Regional Aircraft 645

CRJ 700 112
CRJ 900 148
ERJ 140/145 150
ERJ 175 235

112 + 148 = 260 CRJs
150 (-45) + 235 = 340 ERJs
45 ERJ140/145s Retire
600 RJ's Max Based on Scope

Contract Expires
Compass (End of 2019, Probably going to Envoy)
SkyWest ???
Mesa ???
Republic ???

Thinking this is the future of the three WOs and the other three left assuming Compass goes to Envoy. If Piedmont could figure out how to recruit like PSA, then they could take all the 140/145s, Envoy be all 175, and PSA all 700/900s. Maybe in the future we would see Piedmont and Envoy merge and have SkyWest and Mesa CRJs go to PSA? Republic then goes to Envoy? This is very long term, maybe within the next 10 years? What do you all think?

I think the question for the next decade is pilot supply. If pilot labor costs double or triple over historical norms, what happens to the business model?

Incentive to increase R&D into single pilot ops?

No - just and incentive to shift some flying to mainline and drop the smaller planes. If you need to shrink to 1/2 the size of today, you jettison the least profitable half of your flying.

I think the trend looking out over the next 5-10 years will be less and less regional flights as the market for pilots to fly the rj’s tightens further. It’s already starting to get, “interesting”. More mainline flying is good for all of us long term.

You have way too much time on your hands.

Not as I see it.

That would require a whole different generation of aircraft.

Also, almost all the gains in safety made since the concept of CRM since the early 80s are attributable to two pilots being present and actively participating. I don’t think any datalink technology will allow that for quite some time.

Single pilot probably seems like a good idea to idiot politicians and uppper mgmt. It seems like an awful idea to those of us who see how often small problems are fixed using CRM-before they can become big problems.

I also think the subject of datalink is a very misunderstood subject. A very high grade avionics suite would be required-and it would have to be absolutely bulletproof.

That link would be the biggest, juiciest target ever for hackers.

I agree completely, I said that mostly as tongue-in-cheek.

The willingness of Airbus to buy into Bombardier and the desire of Boeing to buy into Embraer suggests to me where they think this is going. Bigger, more capable, but more fuel efficient per seat mike "RJs such as the C-series and E-2s are going to be flown in the niche where they make the best economic sense, either by mainline as their low end equipment or by independent "regionals" who will not be bound by scope clauses to the big four.

One could envision a medium-sized city network (perhaps Jeff Bezos will create Amazon Prime Air?) with tickets sold exclusively online and no real codeshare obligations at all. Look what LYFT and UBER have already done to mass transit and taxi services. The future is going to see bigger changes than we would believe. I mean, who would have imagined five years ago that the regionals would be competing with higher pay and hiring and retention bonuses for a diminishing number of nominally qualified newbie FO applicants?

Why bully him?