Sliceback

Used 15,100 pilots. Seniority numbers are 15,2xx but will adjust downwards by approx. 600 numbers later this month. So the percentage isn't perfect.

BOS 8,595 57%
CLT 9,588 63%
DCA 9,881 65%
DFW 9,476 63%
LAX 10,157 74%
LGA 11,214 74%
MIA 10,765 71%
ORD 10,173 67%
PHL 9,642 64%
PHX 7,923 52%

Using 15,200 and 11,214 as the junior CA a guy hired this month is projected to be able to upgrade in August 2023.

Retirements -

2018 263 +/-
2019 636
2020 771
2021 837
2022 862
2023 957
2024 935
2025 953
2026 909
2027 773
2028 683
2029 642
2030 562

Beech Dude

Thanks for the always awesome stats Slice. Hopefully things work out and I make the grade in 2 yrs.

TransWorld

With these kinds of retirement numbers the Schoolhouse will have to have more that a 40 pilot class every 2 weeks. More pilots or more frequent. Otherwise they will never make it.

Cheddar

The company is so far behind schedule it’s frightening. We’re under staffed as it is, and they have no extra capacity unless we give up night sims for CQT and Transition.

FUPM


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RhinoBallAuto

FWIW, they are renting sims in LAS @ AGS to cover initial 320 QT... maybe elsewhere perhaps. With all the NH 737s, they’re going to need them from somewhere.

I’m not sure if that addresses the throughput concerns Cheddar mentions — you certainly won’t need extra box capacity if you’re only starting 25 of your 40 planned per class, even without all the movement and training created by retirements...

Dolphinflyer

How many sims used to be in PHX? Did they transfer any?

Rawhide16

I realize that most people scoff the E190 (or don't even realize that they're mainline jets and not our regional carriers) but an E190 CA is still an AA CA.

Junior PHL E190 CA is 14,262 (94%).

MidLife

Is 190 CA that bad a thing to be? I heard 190 CA can be had after a year on property

Rawhide16

I don't think so other than the fact that it's Group 1 pay. Still, it can be held at about 1 year and the Group 1 CA pay is better than year 4 Group 2 FO pay. It is allegedly being retired late next year though.

Sliceback

It's an AA Captain. Why is it so junior? Because of the pay. How many guys that have been on the property are bidding it? Almost no one, which is why it's so junior.

Group I CA 2 second year pay = Group II FO 6th year pay.
G1 CA 12th yr pay = between G2 FO 9th/10th year pay

Vs a Group II CA pay?
G1 CA pay = 65% of G2 CA pay

By the time you can upgrade to CA on the 190 you could have been a G2 FO line holder for 1-1.5 years in PHL or LGA. The pay difference is less than $10,000 to go from a line holder to a reserve Captain for 1-1.5 years and it's only based in PHL.

190 line holder is approx. 3 yrs LOS. Taking that upgrade at the 3rd year incurrs a two year lock-in and might take away the quickest G4 FO or G2 CA opportunities. Taking a 190 CA bid also takes away the one time Captain upgrade exclusion that allows you to break an existing FO bid for your first CA bid. Guys happily use that, and hope to get withheld, as G4 FO's.

That's some of the factors why it's so junior. If the pay was 90-95% of G2 pay it would go more senior.