Health of the company
 

Anyone else starting to get worried about the health of the company long term? The stock keeps going down, profit margins keep getting smaller and our debt keeps getting bigger.

If this thing with the Saudis gets out of control we could be in a pile crisis that makes the one in the 1970-80s seem like nothing.

Yes, I worry about it too. O think you have to give it time to play out, the Latin American economy doing poorly is a bigger deal than I think most people acknowledge. Maybe our retreat from China will save money.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Entering Sec 6 negotiations, that should be the last thing on our minds.

What should be first thing on our minds, is being the highest paid airline pilots in the industry along with an industry leading contract, one which Delta and United pilots aspire to surpass by 1% or more.

Our job is to negotiate the best possible contract that puts us at the top, and to then let the MBAs figure out how to run the show. If they screw it up, it’s on them.

Don’t fall for their FUD, and don’t worry about what you can’t control. The closer we get to Sec 6, the more doom and gloom you will hear from the them... all airline management standard M.O.

Here’s a quote from someone that perfectly describes how we should be thinking... (topic is from experiences riding the 737 Max)

“No, we do not have a say nor should we care. What we should care about is being the highest paid 737 MAX pilots in the world with the best benefits and work rules that enhance our QOL. If they DH me on a MAX and I am sandwiched in and cannot rest, I will call in fatigued. That is all I should care about.

All this other crap is what management uses to get pilots to "buy in" to the corporate rah-rah BS. They use our psychology against us as we are problem solvers and compliant. We are Labor and not managers.

The Market will decide if the MAX succeeds or fails and not the pilots. When our Uber Platinums book away to Delta and take their 4 million miles and revenue with them by the hundreds, THEN management will realize they made a big mistake. Until it costs them big money, they don't care. And OBTW, all management cares about is the opinions of the people in Business Class or better. The crammed in masses are of no concern as they are going to book the cheapest flight. Maybe AAL is smarter than we think? If the margins suck in coach, maybe 12 more seats makes it profitable?

But that is NOT our concern. Our concern is making the most money to fly that jet regardless of configuration.”

Don't disagree with anything you've said, but I'd like to point out that the slimline seats are at United and Delta as well. Just flew on one of Delta's Airbus 320s, and other than their keeping the entertainment in the seatbacks, it might has well have been a MAX, all the way down to the removal of the bulkhead separating business class and coach. Their 320 now seats 160 folks.

https://www.businessinsider.com/slim...erican-2016-11

Doesn't absolve us from our passenger issues, but I wanted to point out that cramming more folks into an existing tube design is happening industry wide. :)

Yes, but your company is continually enhancing the quality of the product for your customers. Meanwhile, we're competing with Spirit and Frontier.

I have invested in 4 different stocks that then slowly tanked into bankruptcy. Wall street types know exactly what to look at on a company balance sheet and if they dont like a stock then generally it is for a good reason(s). I am too lazy to figure out the debt load of AA going forward and how it is structured but I bet that is part of the issue haunting the stock.

But until AA has an actual money losing quarter I wouldnt sweat it too much. Hard to go bankrupt if you are making a profit every quarter.

On the other hand, I also worked for steel company for less than a year that started tanking not much after my arrival. They ended up going Chapter 7 so I might be bad luck and you should get out while you can.

1/3 of our income is eaten up by debt payments. The scarier issue is our profits will fall 50% due to fuel price increases, meaning the majority of our profit will go towards debt repayment and we will just be treading water.

Hence, the stock price.

That being said back in 2011-2012 time frame, with oil climbing and 300 old-ass S80's on the line, what would you do if you were management? They were really between a rock and a hard place. Had oil not gone bonkers (again) I would imagine AA managment wouldn't have bought so many new airplanes.

Another issue is we overpaid for them because of the bankruptcy filing.

To pile it on, we bought 2005 models when the MAX and NEO was just around the corner. So, we'll be at a 15%-20% fuel burn disadavange for 25 years.

Not to be a Debbie downer, though.

Overall the board made a hugely bad decision to buy back stock when they could've paid down our debt. We had an opportunity to be ahead financially but choose not to take it. The company financial performance is the main reason I have not and probably will not move to a domicile. I don't trust this place. We save about 70% of our income and I fully expect to be out of a job in the next five years. After almost five years here, I have given serious thought to leaving.

If I were at Delta or SWA I would move. For this place? Not a chance. They have made it clear they have no long term plan and no desire to run it for a future.

And this resonates with front line employees, most of us don't give a crap which is sad. When we see the company being run better wth more long term decisions being made, maybe morale will improve.

The debt load has been addressed multiple times in crew news sessions. It’s a concern to me as well but when listening to Parker talk about their strategy and why they’ve gone the direction they have, it makes sense. Maybe they aren’t as dumb as we think?

Don’t forget UA, DL and i think SWA have bought back lots of stock as well.

They’re not running the airline like Dave Ramsey would, that’s for sure. And I’m glad they aren’t[emoji23]

And I’d say there’s absolutely no way this company goes out of business. If it could survive a major recession coupled with a massive terror attack back in 2001 there’s just no way. Bankruptcy? Maybe. But out of business, I wouldn’t worry about it.

If AA went out of business UA, SWA, DL, whoever wouldn’t be looking too pretty either. There’s no point in worrying about it, you can’t do anything to change it.

1/3? How much and for how long? Does the debt load lighten in a few years?

Man, so nice to have a real Chicken Little thread back.

Funny thing is, all of you that say the sky is falling will eventually be right (some of you are way more dramatic then others though) cause everything goes up and down. You’ll then say “I told you so” and pat yourself on the back.....all for doing nothing but stating the obvious.

I predict, that the company will have bad times and good times. There I am now a zealot and should be showered with awe at my knowledge

fully expecting to be out of job in 5 years.....you must be a ball at a party.