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Old 07-31-2019, 09:44 AM   #11  
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Originally Posted by HardLemonade View Post
Wow..and that's before the large wave of retirements over the next few years. It's possible that someone hired today could upgrade in 3 or 4 years. If they took the most junior CA base. I'm not counting 190 CA.
The projections Iíve seen say 4 years to narrow body CA in several bases and 3 years to wide body FO for anyone hired before 2021/2022. And still rolling along pretty good for the next decade after that.
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Old 07-31-2019, 11:01 AM   #12  
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The projections Iíve seen say 4 years to narrow body CA in several bases and 3 years to wide body FO for anyone hired before 2021/2022. And still rolling along pretty good for the next decade after that.
Try not to count your chickens before they hatch
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Old 07-31-2019, 11:45 AM   #13  
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Try not to count your chickens before they hatch
True but those retirements are coming regardless.
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Old 07-31-2019, 12:12 PM   #14  
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True but those retirements are coming regardless.

Eh. Too many variables outside of retirements to consider.
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Old 07-31-2019, 01:38 PM   #15  
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Mainline fleet count shows an increase of 35-40 airframes over next 3 years or so......from their latest SEC filing. So that is good.
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Old 07-31-2019, 03:13 PM   #16  
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Try not to count your chickens before they hatch
Thatís all I was born to do.
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Old 08-01-2019, 08:16 AM   #17  
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True but those retirements are coming regardless.
Retirements aren't the only denominator, the Fed just cut interest rates by a quarter % and we are supposedly in a strong stable economy.

What happens when the economy isn't as strong or the recession hits? That changes everything.
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Old 08-01-2019, 08:50 AM   #18  
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I donít think either will get down as low as 11,500 (with the reshuffle), but itíd be nice to be wrong.
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Old 08-01-2019, 02:56 PM   #19  
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I think they will both go junior. Training over Thanksgiving and next year's vacation bidding in the new status.

G2 CA: 11,900
G4 FO: 12,000
^I think this will be pretty close. Last yearís December bid was just a few numbers shy of 12,000 for G2 CA. Subtract a few #s for displacements and I think it should be just short of that.

Iíll guesss:
G2 CA: 11,800
G4 FO: 11,900
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Old 08-01-2019, 05:54 PM   #20  
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^I think this will be pretty close. Last yearís December bid was just a few numbers shy of 12,000 for G2 CA. Subtract a few #s for displacements and I think it should be just short of that.

Iíll guesss:
G2 CA: 11,800
G4 FO: 11,900
As someone senior to those numbers, I hope youíre right. But Iím not holding my breath, and Iím definitely not willing to commute!
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