How low will it go? CA and G4 FO
#243
Usually 3 months, but they break up winter into smaller bids due to training over the holidays (Jan Bid is a 1 month bid for December training). That seems to be the pattern over the last 3 years.
#247
We’d be looking at as low as 3 years to upgrade, with it trending even quicker after that. Would be absolutely insane... hope you’re correct!
#248
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 161
Why would it keep dropping? Honestly asking, from a mathematical standpoint. Sure, with increased retirements and hiring, the time it takes to reach that seniority will be much faster, so it would take a new hire much less time to reach, say, 12000 and widebody FO. But the only way really for those numbers to keep dropping would be adding more of those positions/airplanes or for some reason a particular bid status became less desirable for more senior pilots, thus dropping to junior ones. Again, lots of turnover in and of itself shouldn't really cause the number to drop, just cause the amount of time to reach that number to drop. What am I missing?
#249
Why would it keep dropping? Honestly asking, from a mathematical standpoint. Sure, with increased retirements and hiring, the time it takes to reach that seniority will be much faster, so it would take a new hire much less time to reach, say, 12000 and widebody FO. But the only way really for those numbers to keep dropping would be adding more of those positions/airplanes or for some reason a particular bid status became less desirable for more senior pilots, thus dropping to junior ones. Again, lots of turnover in and of itself shouldn't really cause the number to drop, just cause the amount of time to reach that number to drop. What am I missing?
I think your best indicator of the trend line is to see what the junior most numbers are each August, post shuffle
I would assume we are pretty close to stasis right now.
#250
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,533
You're 100% correct. From a numbers perspective it will stabilize out of necessity, give or take a few. What may potentially drive it slightly further down temporarily is the combination of a June bid (prior to seniority reshuffle) in a year with a significant number of retirements.
I think your best indicator of the trend line is to see what the junior most numbers are each August, post shuffle
I would assume we are pretty close to stasis right now.
I think your best indicator of the trend line is to see what the junior most numbers are each August, post shuffle
I would assume we are pretty close to stasis right now.