Notices

Bankruptcy

Old 03-15-2020, 06:30 AM
  #11  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,238
Default

Originally Posted by GhettoJet View Post
Bankruptcy, layoffs, and a major downsizing of the operation is inevitable at this point. AA has been the weakest of the majors for several years now, both operationally and financially. Even if it wasn't a foregone conclusion, there is too much for the management team to gain by pursuing this route with three open contracts. Think partying in Vegas for six months on your credit card while working from your hotel room. The hangover has arrived.
You’re not armed, are you?
Route66 is offline  
Old 03-15-2020, 06:32 AM
  #12  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,844
Default

What’s the point of paying down debt when the debt is so cheap? Especially if they are 0% loans from the government (hopefully coming).

cash WAS wasted on those damn buybacks...

at least we don’t hedge fuel.
AllYourBaseAreB is offline  
Old 03-15-2020, 07:16 PM
  #13  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 131
Default

Originally Posted by Surprise View Post
Casual observation that there seems to be a lot of new faces here spreading doom and gloom. Is management trying to soften us up for concessions?
Illinois and Ohio just closed all restaurants for 2 weeks. United announce they will cut flying by 50 percent and will lose over a billion dollars in in revenues March. You think this just management games
5and20 is offline  
Old 03-15-2020, 07:48 PM
  #14  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jun 2014
Posts: 200
Default

Originally Posted by 5and20 View Post
Illinois and Ohio just closed all restaurants for 2 weeks. United announce they will cut flying by 50 percent and will lose over a billion dollars in in revenues March. You think this just management games
They've got to be losing more than just a bliion in revenue per month, probaby burning through a billion in cash per month with revenues down 50% or more.
FourPutt is offline  
Old 03-15-2020, 08:02 PM
  #15  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,089
Default

Originally Posted by FourPutt View Post
They've got to be losing more than just a bliion in revenue per month, probaby burning through a billion in cash per month with revenues down 50% or more.
44b rev and 42b expenses (pulling #'s out my butt), Loss of 30b in annual revenue (70% haircut...optimistic?)

5b in fuel savings from cheaper gas and not flying.

Leaves 13b revenue and 37b in expenses

Burn of 2b a month or time to expire...less than four months with no more borrowing.

above is just shotgunned. Pay cuts and layoffs will probably give another month or so of burn. Eventually all the majors are going to go through restructuring and shed half or more of their aircraft, there is just no way to recover from this. I'd bet AA furloughs 6000-7000, maybe more. TWA guys will be on the street...again.

And no he demand won't just come right back, because there won't be anyone left that is employed.

I think the U.K. is doing it the right way. It's gonna happen...everyone is gonna get this...at least they will have an economy after it's all said and done.
Name User is offline  
Old 03-16-2020, 05:45 AM
  #16  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Arado 234's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,764
Default

Originally Posted by 5and20 View Post
Illinois and Ohio just closed all restaurants for 2 weeks. United announce they will cut flying by 50 percent and will lose over a billion dollars in in revenues March. You think this just management games
Realty is... People gonna go crazy. I have family in Europe and playgrounds etc. are packed! Good luck staying indoors with a 3 year old for two weeks! And for all others, you'll get tired of 24 hour pornhub very quickly. I bet we'll see birth rates skyrocket in the next 9 to 10 months AND the divorce rate.
Arado 234 is offline  
Old 03-16-2020, 02:37 PM
  #17  
Line Holder
 
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 48
Default

Originally Posted by Salukidawg View Post
Let’s say you’re right and the industry rebounds quickly. That still doesn’t change the fundamental problems that lay beneath the surface for AA going forward. They need to aggressively pay down debt (should have already been happening) or they are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when the next financial crisis hits. Doug’s comments about the industry never losing money again are going to come back to haunt him in a big way.
It does not matter the party is over all 3 legacies will go BK (plus weak airlines), Now the next step after bk, lets end this eagle/express experiment all flights run by AA, no Mainline/Eagle after the bk, "B" scales fine. All employees taken care of. Do you have what it takes? Thousands will lose their jobs, this is about the future. Once again get your head out of the sand, BK will happen. Get your affairs in order and the contract for those that survive must be for the future. Many sacrifices, 3 years from now we will be proud if we do it right!! All Legacies must stand tall and get rid of the surf regional system, help one another, love another. The surf system must be abolished after BK, Do you have what it takes?
CVGair is offline  
Old 03-16-2020, 02:47 PM
  #18  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Apr 2019
Posts: 537
Default

Originally Posted by CVGair View Post
It does not matter the party is over all 3 legacies will go BK (plus weak airlines), Now the next step after bk, lets end this eagle/express experiment all flights run by AA, no Mainline/Eagle after the bk, "B" scales fine. All employees taken care of. Do you have what it takes? Thousands will lose their jobs, this is about the future. Once again get your head out of the sand, BK will happen. Get your affairs in order and the contract for those that survive must be for the future. Many sacrifices, 3 years from now we will be proud if we do it right!! All Legacies must stand tall and get rid of the surf regional system, help one another, love another. The surf system must be abolished after BK, Do you have what it takes?
But I like surfing
rld1k is offline  
Old 03-16-2020, 04:01 PM
  #19  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Sep 2016
Posts: 774
Default

Originally Posted by 6ix9ineYearFlow View Post
More leveraged than their last bankruptcy.
More debt than United & Delta combined.
AA bonds approaching distressed levels at 12%.
AAG is in trouble.

The silver lining is that oil is cheap and AAG has $7.3 billion in liquidity....
I think they can just default on the loans for the airplanes without filing BK.

Before it was to reorganize the pensions.

In this case, they just don't need the capacity, and can allow the planes to be repossessed.

When the debt doesn't have collateral you have to use BK. When it does you surrender the collateral.
Happyflyer is offline  
Old 03-16-2020, 04:58 PM
  #20  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,089
Default

Originally Posted by CVGair View Post
It does not matter the party is over all 3 legacies will go BK (plus weak airlines), Now the next step after bk, lets end this eagle/express experiment all flights run by AA, no Mainline/Eagle after the bk, "B" scales fine. All employees taken care of. Do you have what it takes? Thousands will lose their jobs, this is about the future. Once again get your head out of the sand, BK will happen. Get your affairs in order and the contract for those that survive must be for the future. Many sacrifices, 3 years from now we will be proud if we do it right!! All Legacies must stand tall and get rid of the surf regional system, help one another, love another. The surf system must be abolished after BK, Do you have what it takes?
That sounds great. Ok now for reality. Shred union contracts and outsource everything, Total reset. AA becomes a broker. Mesa, Skywest, Republic all operating Airbus and Boeing products and bid on contracts. Assets like slots get sold at fire sale prices because the last carrier left standing only has so much cash. The end game could be one or two carriers left flying 300-500 aircraft between them for the time being, only serving major airports and doing point to point.

Then that is a real good reason for cabotage to enter the fray, let other countries take the risk too.

I don't think you really want to go down that road.

Last edited by Name User; 03-16-2020 at 05:16 PM.
Name User is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
aa73
American
200
10-09-2022 08:10 AM
tuktukdriver
Major
42
11-16-2013 08:29 AM
EmbraerFlyer
Major
1
10-08-2008 10:35 AM
redbaron84
Major
1
12-25-2005 09:49 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices