FetaCheese

Not exactly. Those August numbers are from January 2020 projections before COVID-19. They include all the new hires that we didn't hire. Plus 100% of the original projected flying for the year.

Long story short, we're about 1,000 pilots fat for summer 2021 if I crunched the numbers right. Most or all of that will probably be offset by early and normal retirements...and remember that either way furloughs aren't worth it for the company unless is for longer than 18 months. All told, this isn't so bad for us as far as furloughs go. Probably won't happen.

How displacements shake out is a different story. That may be a blood bath..or it could even out with the new bid statuses on the east coast.

mainlineAF

That’s my elementary analysis as well. Like i said this could have been wayyyy worse.

Flying101

WHAT!??!!? No they are not Jan 2020 predictions! What are you talking about man? Go pull up the original Aug vacancy and show us the same number? Why do you think the previous vacancy was cancelled? So they planning can rerun the pilot demand. Come on man... guys 4 years on property are bidding around 12,000 come this July!

Downtime

The needed head count for July is 10997. With 500 retirements in between. We are around 1000 over staffed for next summer.

Downtime

No the vacancy number is active pilots. So take the 15k at the start of the year -retirements-VPLOA- LTD- CKA-management pilots.

206321

Everyone should settle down. This bid does not look as bad as it could be. If I was junior at AA this bid would put me at ease right now.

Keep in mind the bid numbers are for active line pilots. We have over 900 out on LTD. More on military leave. That difference is what brings the overall number up to 15,206 grand total number of pilots.

We have had 708ish leave on early retirement. They said they are going to announce even more of those.

Parker said today that the ultimate goal is no furloughs. He said that isn't a promise but it is a goal, a stretch goal. The June 2020 bid forecast of active line pilots PRIOR to COVID was 13,618 and July 2021 forecast is now 10,997. The difference between these 2 numbers is is 2600ish and you can subtract 700 early outs, plus another 500 regular retirements between now and summer 2021..... Plus factor in the end to hiring (was supposed to be 700ish this year or something). Seems to end up that we are approx overstaffed by 1500 by next summer.

The training bubble of everyone moving off 330, 757/767 and 190 is going to eat up a large number of pilots as they sift through the training cycle over the next 8-10 months. Plus, they just announced opening CLT 777, CLT 737 and MIA 787.

All in all I feel lucky right now. The airline is going to be fat on pilots until summer 2021. They aren't looking to make a major knee jerk reaction and dont want to displace a ton. They mentioned 3 times in the bid announcements/CCI messages that they are looking to reduce the number of secondary displacements.

Lets all keep fingers crossed that a comprehensive testing/COVID program is put in place to increase passenger confidence. That is the key to this recovery.

Flying101

13,267 is how many activists pilots we have, we are roughly 1,200 fat for Sept. 3000+ For Nov. 13,267 does not include CKA, who will also bid this displacement.. Not sure how it works with anyone on LTD or MIL leave..

Lowest system number is 15,700

APA should have came out with an update seniority list and not wait until July.

Downtime

if you read the last page our head count as the effective date of this bid is 12567. That’s what we currently have active. We need 10997 come next July.(Planned) We have like 500+ retirements in the Sep 20 to Jul 21 time frame. Brining is to 1000 over staffed. Our seniority numbers have not been updated in almost a year.

biigD

They do. Take a deep breath and take the time to learn what the various numbers mean. The fact that you’re even mentioning 15,700 tells me that you haven’t done that yet.

AverageCoffee

No one likes an activist pilot. Hope we don’t have that many.

This is much better than expected.