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-   -   American finds cash cushion (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/129620-american-finds-cash-cushion.html)

copy 05-22-2020 11:27 AM


Originally Posted by Flying101 (Post 3061868)
Fake News! As of June 2019 Parker owns 2.2 million shares of AA stock, most he’s ever owned. Not sure where you’re getting $150M? If he sold AA at its peak (2007 @ $54) he would walk away with $118M.

While he still has a lot, he’s also been selling a ton since 2013. Roughly $150m worth. He gets compensated in stock/options, so he’s continually getting more, while selling shares he already has. Plenty of articles on it in the last couple months (one linked below) and you can go verify it with SEC filings if you’d like.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/486133-amer...covid-bailout/

JulesWinfield 05-24-2020 05:56 AM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3061012)
American will end Q2 with 11b in liquidity. The Advantage program was just valued at 18-30b (4B being collateral for Cares loan). AA isn't in a bind.

They're targeting a burn rate of 50M per day in June, and have been losing more than that, since. That's 1.5B a month. They have something like 30+ billion in debt. I'm not sure that they will ever be able to service the debt and turn a profit. Lots of their assets can't be liquidated for anything close to their value right now, as there aren't any buyers for airplanes or spare parts.

Parker said a lot of the debt payments won't be due for a couple of years. Once they have to start servicing the debt, it's game over.

Al Czervik 05-24-2020 06:46 AM


Originally Posted by JulesWinfield (Post 3062894)
They're targeting a burn rate of 50M per day in June, and have been losing more than that, since. That's 1.5B a month. They have something like 30+ billion in debt. I'm not sure that they will ever be able to service the debt and turn a profit. Lots of their assets can't be liquidated for anything close to their value right now, as there aren't any buyers for airplanes or spare parts.

Parker said a lot of the debt payments won't be due for a couple of years. Once they have to start servicing the debt, it's game over.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed.../#1bb00f085b7e

AZFlyer 05-24-2020 07:03 AM


Originally Posted by JulesWinfield (Post 3062894)
Parker said a lot of the debt payments won't be due for a couple of years. Once they have to start servicing the debt, it's game over.

You forgot to add that your opinion presupposes that revenue will be insufficient to service the debt.

Al Czervik 05-24-2020 07:10 AM


Originally Posted by AZFlyer (Post 3062945)
You forgot to add that your opinion presupposes that revenue will be insufficient to service the debt.

No, no, no. Just watch the news... Opinion/commentary is now fact.

sumwherelse 05-24-2020 07:24 AM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3062932)

it’s too bad this narrative isn’t getting the play it deserves. In today’s doom and gloom obsessed reality it’s all bankruptcy when in reality this article hits the nail on the head. Unfortunately, it’s boring. But it’s spot on, American WILL NOT declare bankruptcy.

AZFlyer 05-24-2020 07:57 AM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3062950)
No, no, no. Just watch the news... Opinion/commentary is now fact.

Be afwaiiiiid!!!

Excargodog 05-24-2020 09:42 AM


Originally Posted by sumwherelse (Post 3062960)
it’s too bad this narrative isn’t getting the play it deserves. In today’s doom and gloom obsessed reality it’s all bankruptcy when in reality this article hits the nail on the head. Unfortunately, it’s boring. But it’s spot on, American WILL NOT declare bankruptcy.


Why not? The above shows that AA doesn’t NEED to declare bankruptcy, but it doesn’t show that they WON’T declare bankruptcy. Republic was still operating in the black a few years back when they declared bankruptcy to rid themselves of their 50 seater contracts.

if it is ever ADVANTAGEOUS for management - any management - to declare bankruptcy, you better believe they will at least consider it.

BaldEagleSq 05-24-2020 09:51 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3063071)
Why not? The above shows that AA doesn’t NEED to declare bankruptcy, but it doesn’t show that they WON’T declare bankruptcy. Republic was still operating in the black a few years back when they declared bankruptcy to rid themselves of their 50 seater contracts.



if it is ever ADVANTAGEOUS for management - any management - to declare bankruptcy, you better believe they will at least consider it.

And judging by American's decision _not_ to file for bankruptcy in 2005 when the other major players did, I would hope they learned something from that. In fact, I hope all carriers did.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Downtime 05-24-2020 11:26 AM


Originally Posted by JulesWinfield (Post 3062894)
They're targeting a burn rate of 50M per day in June, and have been losing more than that, since. That's 1.5B a month. They have something like 30+ billion in debt. I'm not sure that they will ever be able to service the debt and turn a profit. Lots of their assets can't be liquidated for anything close to their value right now, as there aren't any buyers for airplanes or spare parts.

Parker said a lot of the debt payments won't be due for a couple of years. Once they have to start servicing the debt, it's game over.

Right but if we haven’t returned to an environment of positive cash flow by the time out debt needs to be serviced AA is toast as well as DAL and UAL.


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