How long will it last?
 

Assuming no CARES, what's everyone's guess as to how long this one will last?

5 years, unfortunately.

I’m guessing 2 ... but I am an optimist and such.

Pelosi says it's gonna happen. Soon.

I'd hold my breath but I just can't that long.

The creditors will need at least 5 months to negotiate with the bankruptcy judge.

AA has enough cash to last until summer 2021. They can’t go to bankruptcy penniless however so I would expect them to declare much sooner than many are anticipating. The sooner they declare the sooner they stem their cash burn. The wild card in bankruptcy will be what it has been this whole time... government intervention. Because if we are still only seeing a 30-40% passenger count compared to 2019 by spring / summer 2021 the market absolutely can shed a legacy. And if you think it will be much better than that by next summer all I will say is I pray you are right. Gary Kelly just said they don’t even see a real beginning to a recovery until late 2021 at the earliest.

Anecdotal on Aa. Seeing full first class with upgrades denied on dead heads and commutes.

Right. I hear this a lot. “But airplanes are full!”... We are still only carrying roughly 30-40% of the 2019 passengers on about half of the airplanes that were flying a year ago and each major airline is burning through millions of dollars /day with no end in sight. But hey, tell yourself whatever you want.

You missed the point. Prior to the last few weeks I had no problem getting first class on a deadhead or commute. Now it's hard. First class passengers seem to be returning.

This is also anecdotal, but I have seen a noticeable increase in business pax this past month or two.