I think before a new hire can hold any base, AA needs to resume hiring

Like when my grandmother gave my mother Castor Oil, she said this too shall pass.

They will start again one of these days. Just sit down and relax.

Wait, so where did all the new hires since the Rona hit get based???

We’ll find out when the vacancy results come out. A lot haven’t even been called back yet thanks to the lack of foresight by our fearless “leaders” and our inability to just flick a switch and spool the training department back up to full capacity. It’s gonna be a rough summer for those of us fortunate to not hit the street.

When are these results supposed to come out?

They should be about two weeks for results on average. So mid week, next week is likely.

Quite a lot of churn in the past year to definitively answer this question at the moment, including four fleets parked. As other's have mentioned, there is a vacancy bid in progress at the moment which should post at the end of this month, bringing clarity to the new seniority structure of the bases.
That said, what we do know at the moment comes from the last vacancy (displacement) bid for September of last year:
DFW was a December 2019 hire (10 months)
PHX was a February 2020 hire (7 months)

Keeping in mind that the junior hire class to date was March 2020, until hiring resumes.
Prior to last year's upheaval, PHX had been a regular showing in the Indoc drops, and at least in the latter half of 2019 DFW was getting awarded in the first vacancy bid post-Indoc.
More to follow next month.
Cheers,

during normal times I would say no. DFW, PHX, and CLT are the longest wait for a new hire to hold. New hires can expect NYC, PHL, and MIA as the most likely of bases to be assigned out of indoc. Hopefully more clarity to come with the posting of this vacancy award, but without a traditional flow of new hires it still maybe tough to determine.

That statement would be true for regional airlines. If all of the training churn is in the low end of the seniority list it costs the company more.

You forgot LAX... up there with NYC as consistently available to new hires. PHL, MIA just behind them, then BOS, DCA, PHX, at least in terms of new hire availability.

ORD is senior and stagnant (shrinking?) and hasn’t gone to new hires in years. I don’t expect that to change.

Dunno if DFW or CLT will ever go to new hires.

That being said, all domiciles have been available within a year or two after Indoc, pre-COVID.