AMR $436 million loss
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,157
With losing "big" money and a pending bankruptcy looming, why would you stick around at AMR if you are over 60 and retirable or can take an early out. Am I wrong but if you retire before it is declared you are safe but once it is official, you are screwed out of everything you have been waiting for?
kcpunk - everyone likes to say "big money". The guys that actually have their money at risk probably know the real numbers.
Everythings age related. Early 50's it would take about 1 yr to make up for the "big money" loss. At age 60 it's roughly 2 yrs. That's the risk balancing equation guys are facing. But saying "at age 60" is very broad. A 60 yr old, 35 yr LOS 777 CA, is in a completely different situation than a 60 yr old, 15 yr LOS S80 FO.
AA's retirement is very different than DL's. For a shorter career, and junior guy, his defined benefit plan might exceed 50% of his total retirement. At DL it was 100%. For a senior AA guy, with longer LOS, it drops below 40%(barely). The rest is in the B fund. They get 100% of that money.
The A fund funding balance knowledge is 18 (?) months in arrears. So it takes some estimating to figure out what the current funding percentage is. Based on the funding levels from 18 months ago it appears that a termination of the A fund would exceed PBGC limits.
Keep in mind this is free advice from a layman.
#42
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,157
If AA declared BK, I'd expect a mass exodus of senior pilots and probably every one over 60. Not sure, but I'd think AA would be in bad shape as they'd probably have to ground many of the 777's and some of the 767's as they'd have no captains to fly them and it would take 6-12 months of heavy training to get pilots back in those seats.
barely 300 A scalers left (highest A fund $$$ at risk) 30+ of them under 58 yrs of age.
100+ 60+ FO's.
140 ish 60+ n/b CA's
Everyone's numbers are different.
Spoke with 2 guys about to turn 56. 500 and 1000 seniority. No intention of leaving in the event of BK. Long term value of the job vs. money at risk is the deciding factor. Factual analysis of their numbers vs. any hypothetical 'big money loss', that is often overstated, is the key to them.
As far as manning the airline post any flood of retirements? First I think we'd have a new contract very quickly if it happened outside of BK. Inside of BK it would be up to the judge and IMO he'd probably side with the company's demand for relief. That, along with the 40+ 777 and 50+ 767 CA reinstatements that can get retrained fairly quickly, would help balance the company's pressing manning needs. They'd still be scrambling but it's something for them to worry about. That's what they get the big bucks for. And it IS a concern for them.
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,157
Eaglefly - so many variables to the 'do they leave' question -
barely 300 A scalers left (highest A fund $$$ at risk) 30+ of them under 58 yrs of age.
100+ 60+ FO's.
140 ish 60+ n/b CA's
Everyone's numbers are different.
Spoke with 2 guys about to turn 56. 500 and 1000 seniority. No intention of leaving in the event of BK. Long term value of the job vs. money at risk is the deciding factor. Factual analysis of their numbers vs. any hypothetical 'big money loss', that is often overstated, is the key to them.
As far as manning the airline post any flood of retirements? First I think we'd have a new contract very quickly if it happened outside of BK. Inside of BK it would be up to the judge and IMO he'd probably side with the company's demand for relief. That, along with the 40+ 777 and 50+ 767 CA reinstatements that can get retrained fairly quickly, would help balance the company's pressing manning needs. They'd still be scrambling but it's something for them to worry about. That's what they get the big bucks for. And it IS a concern for them.
barely 300 A scalers left (highest A fund $$$ at risk) 30+ of them under 58 yrs of age.
100+ 60+ FO's.
140 ish 60+ n/b CA's
Everyone's numbers are different.
Spoke with 2 guys about to turn 56. 500 and 1000 seniority. No intention of leaving in the event of BK. Long term value of the job vs. money at risk is the deciding factor. Factual analysis of their numbers vs. any hypothetical 'big money loss', that is often overstated, is the key to them.
As far as manning the airline post any flood of retirements? First I think we'd have a new contract very quickly if it happened outside of BK. Inside of BK it would be up to the judge and IMO he'd probably side with the company's demand for relief. That, along with the 40+ 777 and 50+ 767 CA reinstatements that can get retrained fairly quickly, would help balance the company's pressing manning needs. They'd still be scrambling but it's something for them to worry about. That's what they get the big bucks for. And it IS a concern for them.
Interesting to reread after the recent retirements and BK filing.
I think half the 777 reduction is back in place inspite of the 777 Captains retiring. How'd they do it so quickly? Every displaced 777 CA got reinstated along with regular upgrades. I think it was something like 50+ upgrades/requals in two months.
Spoke with my two 56 yr old friends. They're going nowhere right now. One guy is investigating getting 777 qual'd and leaving.
#44
Im not familiar with the affects that BK has on pensions and retirement at this early stage, but what would happen if an AA CA wants to retire Dec 1? Would the pension funds be frozen or something? What would prevent 1000 guys from retiring next week?
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 254
i believe they can no longer be eligible for lump sum payment. so annuity is left. now the company has the option to pawn off A fund to PBGC ( which I'm sure will happen) and therefore areduction in annuity will be doled out. how much % wise, not sure. I don't think the Nov1 guys are eligible either for lump-sum however, not sure.
#47
You sure about that? I'm not arguing, I just wonder where you got that information. I would think that since the PBGC is a gubbamint organization (oxymoron) they would have some requirement to take those plans if shed. I honestly do not know, but it is an interesting question.
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