acl65pilot

I totally agree with this. Arpy knows he needs to be in the drivers seat of any consolidation his airline will be part of. I suspect that Capstone, or another one of the Ft Worth superfunds will work in concert with "their" Fort Worth airline to make sure he is.

If AMR were to go CH11, the ball is totally out of their hands. Like I said it would lead to fragmentation of their airline, and that is not what their investors or leaders want. For this reason I suspect that your position is the one that will be the direction they take.

I would suspect a AMR/B6 and fragmented LCC tie up. LCC is the one that needs to get fragmented, and SWA, AMR, DAL, and to a lesser degree UCAL are in the position to absorb the assets.

As with everything, that is my guess based upon what I see and hear.

scambo1

If the writers facts and logic are correct, I completely agree with your conclusion.

In the case of DAL (when DAL filed for bankruptcy), I completely agree with your conclusion too...Even to the point of liquidation/ fragmentation.

eaglefly

The general concesus here is that pilot compensation will neither push AA to BK, nor prevent it from happening. Additionally, any contractual provisions agreed upon prior to BK can be further decimated in BK, so most here see little point in being enablers of this management team (a LOOSE term) once again. The labor give-backs in 2003 have essentially been squandered on management bonuses and funding American Eagle. The pilots give-backs alone have been basically the pilots funding their own retirement plan for the last 8 years to boot. It seems management is pulling out all the "union buster" tricks including making good use of sympathetic media sources to send mixed messages as pressure. This is all old stuff, the only difference this time is that it won't work. I think they've overplayed their stay at the concessions table and the only way significant concessions will come is through BK, ESPECIALLY on scope. Again, at this point the majority I talk to would rather get something this time for their givebacks and that is damage to the management as well. Most prefer to have management stick the knife in rather then have it handed to them to commit seppuku with. If you're going to get gutted anyway, better to do so with honor.

As for BK itself, I don't see fragmentation of the airline. AA needs to grow to compete, not break apart. AA has to decide what it will be, either a competitive legacy with UAL and DAL or something else, but right now it's nothing. AMR must have a cash position minimum to fund their own BK and if and when they get there, they'll make that move. My bet says they have a "projection date" that they'll hit whereby, they'll begin a process of pre-packaging for a filing (perhaps they already have started that behind the scenes ?). The big cash burn included a fat pension contribution I believe and another is due in March. 1113 will provide the foundation to impose the last contract offer, so that box still has to be checked. I think AMR became agressive on pilot negotiations recently to both get a view of the current landscape among the pilots and to check the little stuff off, leaving only key items to be part of the "last, best and final offer" to come. Even if accepted, it can be modified in BK and if not, a good chance of most of their interests imposed.

Again, from my perspective at this point, nobody cares. Most say, "bring it on already and stop trying to play us like chumps". Most would love to see the books opened, as much of the management changed as possible and hopefully the gluttonous management compensation trough will be drained. From my perspective, the worst miscalculation that AA management has made in this spiraling disaster is their assumption that once they "clean house" with labor, they'll just move forward with a competitive PRODUCT.

Yes, their COSTS may be competitive, but the people who produce and present that product will be hopelessly damaged for the remainder of their tenure a AA and AA will become the "I don't give a damn" airline, providing poor service. Shiny planes, cheap fares and good schedules won't change that. You simply can't force enthusiasm. It's been said that AMR stands for "Ain't My Responsibility" and that philosophy has been CULTIVATED over time. I shudder to think of the emotional landscape here after the knife is stuck in once again. If management thinks they're going to gut the employees yet again (and this time a complete evisceration) and re-stitch something that shows effort and pride, they're wrong. You can't make a silk purse out of a sows a**hole and regardless of what happens, the AA "product" is almost certain to be the worst out there 5 years from now. You also can't rock a boat that's already sunk and again, from my perspective, this employee group (across the board) has absolutely had it with this philosophy of motivating and inspiring people.

I think most here think BK here would actually be like opening the windows in a smally bathroom on a windy day.

Just my .02

syd111

Nice maybe you can move up on the backs of your brothers, hey I remember you when we went into ch-11, thx for showing your true colors!

alfaromeo

The only people who think that bankruptcy will somehow be better off are people that have never been through it. I doubt you will find even a small fraction of Delta pilots that went through (DAL/NWA) bankruptcy and said "Hey that was much better for us, glad that happened."

For the APA the one warning I would give is to protect your work rules. Both US Air and United went into bankruptcy with not much of a plan on how to work the contract. They ended up with terrible work rules that made people's lives miserable, especially domestic narrow body pilots. At Delta we did the pre-bankruptcy restructuring and were able to control, for the most part, how the work rules came out. We kept the most important duty rigs and avoided the 20 hour unpaid layovers in the airport hotels. We did improve productivity for the company, but did it in a way that preserved the essential quality of life for our pilots. If you decimate your work rules, they take forever to get back.

In bankruptcy, you will find out how out of control you are. You think that management will get smacked around and they will leave you alone but I assure you the opposite is true. I hope the APA is planning well on how to handle a potential bankruptcy. If you compare the four carriers that went in during the last round, you will see vastly different outcomes. What you do does make a difference.

So I appreciate your forum bluster, you seem full of bluster lately. Let me know how that works out for you.

eaglefly

I already noted this.......I mean, geez, it was pretty hard to miss.

Yes, on pilot forums, it's common for pilots to present one facade while letting the inner desires slip thorugh accidentally. Perhaps he's sincere about the APA coming out ahead, but I'll bet there would be no tears shed from him if AA were to fragment and he benefitted handsomely. Being a forum moderator doesn't eliminate the true pilot mentality that's existed for decades and that's first and foremost, "EVERY PILOT FOR HIMSELF".

I mean if you REALLY take a hard look around this industry, pilots have been attacking each other for as long as I can remember. That's exactly WHY they are in the predicements they are in, i.e., they're their own worst enemy. Mangements are simply opportunists of this and that is why it's so easy for them.

Sad, but true and it will never change.

slowplay

CAL went through BK at least twice. USAirways has been through it twice. DAL and UAL have each been through. Compare their financial, operational and customer service rankings with AMR. Note also, of those carriers only Delta pilots currently are paid higher than American.

On this point we are in complete agreement. Pilot contract (wage/productivity) costs alone will not send AMR to bankruptcy. A failed management team, labor productivity, pension costs and the unfairness of a legal system that allowed all the other carriers to restructure (read welch on deals) while AMR paid its debts will (imo).

I'm guessing based on this quote you haven't "lived the dream." Bankruptcy is like sitting on a smelly port-a-potty and having the damn thing knocked over with you inside.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAqyWw56CDE

eaglefly

No one here (to my knowledge) is confused that AA (or AA pilots) will be better off in BK. It's just that at this point, it matters little what pilots agree to or not. A good contract (especially on scope) wont be the final straw for BK and rolling over and spreading our butt cheeks won't prevent it. Most have no more interest in ASSISTING this management team in ANYTHING anymore if you ask me.

It's actually THAT BAD now.

Some things to think about;

A judge will look over the competitive landscape to determine what is an acceptable change to either the last offer (which he/she may impose) or what he/she comes up with based on the arguments by both management and labor. AMR may ask for a blank check, but that doesn't mean they'll get it.

In fact, if a judge DID give AMR HUGE concessions, that would only destabilize the industry by THEN putting UAL and DAL at serious disadvantage and what may that ultimately result in ?

Both of those carriers possibly going back (again) to BK themselves to "level the field". If a judge is TOO gracious to managements whims, they can actually cause more damage then harm (wiping out a whole group of new shareholders and damaging creditors at other carriers). Yes, their primary responsibility is to creditors, but there DOES have to be a balance. AA's pilot pay is ALREADY competitive with DAL and UAL (in between, I think) and scheduling issues have already been agreed to for the most part providing the needed efficiency. My guess is scope would be loosened to approximate what UAL and DAL already have and of course, the A-fund would be mailed to the taxpayers, while virtually ALL of their debt is eliminated. To be honest and blunt, the employees at UAL and DAL should loathe an AA BK as much as anyone, for once that happens, NO WAY will their managements agree to contracts that accelerate above and beyond AA's. A new, LOWER bar will exist and you'll be lucky to keep what you have. It will likely be a case of one BK changing the ENTIRE industry compensation-wise.

Oh....and forget about strikes. The current big-business sympathetic congress will never allow a major carrier to be shut down by labor ever again (I say that with confidence). FAR too many excuses of the damage that would cause and quite frankly, thr unsympathic public would go right along with that.

Again, no one here has any illusions of the lack of control. Quite frankly, you're "over there" and I'm "here" on this one, but thanks for a reminder of the obvious (lack of control, different outcomes, different situations), but this BK might not be what YOU apparently believe it to ultimately be either.

eaglefly

Considering what's occured here the last 10 years, assuming the AA "product" will follow the same path as the other carriers have is in error, IMHO.

The issue isn't BK itself, it's what has occured here in the 10 years PRIOR to any BK.

LOL !!!

Man, I've been on this forum from day one reminding regional pilots, THERE IS NO "DREAM" ANYMORE in this business. The major airlines have been gutted primarily due to the selfishness of individual pilots and pilot groups and the worthlessness of their so-called unions who've become nothing more then self-interested business themselves.

I came to AA with no illusions. In fact, I expect AA to become what Eagle WAS. 14-15-days off/month flying 80 hours, similar work rules, 401(k) and slightly higher wages...........basically the former Eagle, but with bigger and shinier jets.

The REAL bad part is that if THAT is what AA is likely to become (and quite frankly where UAL, DAL and JEEEZ, U already are), think of what it will be like flying for Eagle or any other regional in the future regardless of whether you're in a Q400 or E-190.

All I did was jump from one boat to the next to MAINTAIN my former Eagle QWL. Believe me, it was either do that or quit the industry. Also, BK will impact pilots differently at any given carrier due to seniority, age and the ability to recover.

iaflyer

I really disagree with this part - the mainline pilots are certainly fighting for wages and work rules - the problem is two-fold.

One, management has figured out that the lower an airline ticket costs, the more people fly. So, lower the price as far as they can, and they'll make it up in volume. So they focus on lowering costs, in every way possible. One obvious way is to lower labor costs (not just pilots, but FA, mechanics, dispatchers, cleaners, etc) by using lower cost labor - ie, regionals. I'm sure if they could, AMR, DAL, UAL - all of them, etc would prefer to get rid of all mainline pilots and replace them with regional pilots, at regional wages of course.

Second, as pilots we have NO leverage anymore. In the past, there was a RLA that let us strike - as was pointed out, NMB (and the President, democrat or republican) is not going to let us strike, or even "threaten" a strike. All it takes it the idea of 70,000 people out of work, all over the country, for either the NMB or Congress/President to say it's not in the national interest for a strike.