Bye-Bye BOS
 

I feel so bad for Mr. Sprague...

This article is very misleading, it says they are leaving but then says if they merge they will be a major player in Boston.

I don't see how.

US used to be the biggest airline in BOS in mainline departures (DL always had an edge in passengers carried due to many more wide body aircraft -- for example, DL used to fly L-1011's from BOS to YUL.) US flew non-stop from BOS to every big Florida market, as well as to cities such as IND, CMH, BUF, EWR, YYZ, etc. Not to mention the many mainline flights a day to PIT, some even with a 767, which was a seasonal through flight to and from FRA.

But in the Wolf years, it was decided that every single passenger departing BOS or elsewhere in the Northeast should be funneled through a hub, and most non-stops to other cities were ceased.

Then, when the BOS domicile closed in 2010, US handed all of its BOS-Caribbean business over to B6, on a silver platter, along with its BOS-LAS flights.

Today, US only flies mainline between BOS and PHL, CLT, PHX, and the two Shuttle markets, LGA and DCA. All other destinations from BOS, and even now some of the flights to the hubs, are served by regional airlines.

And I can't even begin to name the many markets that mainline AA served out of BOS, especially when it was a decent sized wide body base, that are no longer on the schedule.

That hardly sounds like a "major player" to me. (And I'm not criticizing the poster to whom I'm replying, but rather the reporter who made this completely uneducated and unsubstantiated claim.)

Best avatar on APC.....

We'll get it all back when they snap up JB... all part of the grand plan. IAG and oneworld need AA to own NYC.

I expect AA to make a play for JB in the not so distant future. In order to satisfy the DOJ, AA needs to pare down all of the overlap with JB before any kind of deal. that is why we see AA pulling out of just about every NY/BOS/SJU Carib route they compete on with JB. They did the same exact thing before they bought Reno.

With a US and JB deal, AA will be a formidable competitor and will finally give DL and UA a run for their money in NYC.

That might have been the plan under Arpey/Horton, but will Doug be more interested in making PHL the powerhouse market and forget about JFK? It will take years to complete the AA/US merge, by then it may be too late to grab JB

Flyby,

Its my opinion that Arpey/ToHo cater to the demands of Big Brother (IAG.) IAG is financed by one of the biggest and most powerful financial institutions in the world, the Rothschild clan. They want AA to own NYC like BA owns Heathrow. I don't think Parker and Co have a choice in NOT to carrying on this plan. NYC simply represents too big of a market for AA to even be a distant second.

All IMHO of course.

Thanks for the response aa73,

As with most everything, follow the money to get the answer. That makes $ense with IAG/Rothschild calling the shots. Whatever happens I hope it works out for AA and it's pilots in the long-term.

This is why NY is not cost effective over PHL as a HUB. If Joe Schmo from Ohio want to fly to Europe he won't be connecting through NY. BOS is not slot controlled like LGA, JFK, and DCA, so I see them expanding there after the merger.

http://i.imgur.com/M2Irv0A.png

I would love for AA to buy JetBlue, but NY loves JetBlue and so does the government. The DOT would make that deal so unattractive it would never get done.

If you thought that slot swap between US and Delta gave away a lot of slots, just wait for this deal.

Yeah you would, wouldn't you! As per your posting in another thread. I would actually love to see the other way around occur.

It's not about how much NY loves JB. AA will go after JB as a hostile takeover, and the DOJ will most likely approve it with obviously some asset/slot divesting. There is a lot more to this than meets the eye, folks - many heavy hitters behind the scenes. It's is a business deal, nothing more, and $$$ talks. Bottom line is that IAG has some very deep pockets and think of this - oneworld is not very well represented in NY (other than JFK-LHR.) My bet is that in 5 years, AA will be bigger than DL in NY.

I think it makes sense too aa73. We keep slashing and cutting anything over here ( benefits wise) in a desperate attempt to raise our share price. Even with poster q4 profit our stock has sunk lower. I think our time as an independent carrier is running out. I hope the folks that didn't feel the need for representation here don't get a rude awakening when we all get the email.

You are exactly right that the cost per emplanement is much higher in JFK than PHL, but if the whole plane is filled with Joe Schmo flying CMH-PHL-LHR then the total revenue will be proportionately lower as well. High fare business travellers are the bread and butter of TATL traffic, and a large chunk of them live in the NYC area. The 18yr old from CMH who is going to backpack across Europe isnt much more than a blip on the radar.

I've thought about this in the past as well, but when you look at the PANYNJ traffic statistics for EWR/JFK/LGA it would put the big 3 on a surprisingly level playing field with each controlling between 20-25% of the NYC traffic. Comparing slot portfolios with DL JFK and AA/JB JFK it is about the same as well. DL uses a ton of RJs, which lowers their potential ASMs for JFK.

I agree with you KillingMeSmalls.

American had negotiated a massive JetBlue codeshare in it's first LBO and now that has been paired way back. Lets not forget that US Airways has also paired way back in NYC and BOS in anticipation of this merger.

IMHO I would anticipate the new American to reemerge in Boston after antitrust/DOT review. Has anyone noticed how American and US airways terminals are being connected with new gates? :cool:

Could AA fit in US side of Terminal B as things stand now? AA and US have cut so much capacity I cant imagine they would need very many gates.

Massport says that United/Continental will use Terminal B, Pier A when the construction is completed. AA will be in Pier A as well, but has given up 4 gates + 4 Eagle RJ gates (Section 1.2):
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...41642243,d.dmg

While I do agree that eventually AA will attempt a hostile takeover of JB, it's not happening anytime soon. First, they need to finish the US Air deal and complete the merger and seniority list integration, which could take years. Then they need to recoup the reorganization money lost over this period to finance a hostile bid, which again will take years.

In the mean time, it is likely that B6 continues to improve its stock price, I think a year ago it was in the $3.00 range, now it is in the $6.00 range. While not great, it has still almost doubled. Hostile bids are not cheap and I would expect Delta or United to try a bidding war to prevent the AA/B6 domination of the New York market.

And of course B6 will probably be B6/ALPA by then, I wouldn't be surprised to see ALPA after this next drive based on current Delta/United/AMR contracts and the healthcare debacle. That's mt .02cents, which is worth about half of that.

That's called originating traffic; I think you missed my point. NY is big, but there are more than just backpackers that live in the rest of the United States. A HUB, in my definition, is a city you make connections through. PHL will be a HUB.

I agree that NY is very important market but between LGA and JFK the new AA would have a decent presence and still fly it's bread and butter.

Yeah, sure dude.

This is for JFK
http://i.imgur.com/Mw0bEE4.png

I have not seen that. Interesting.

Here is an link I just found: Slots and Exemptions | Department of Transportation
I've heard the term "soft slots" in the NY area. I didn't know why until I read this.

Who knows? They could scale down PHL and ramp up both NY and BOS.

In fairness, Smalls, Flyby talked about PANYNJ traffic for the entire region (LGA,EWR & JFK - you posted JFK only). If you look up the regions' passenger traffic, I would imagine you'd see a big difference in your chart. When he talked about JFK specifically, he referenced "slot portfolios", not passengers. I don't know if you can look up 'slots'. If not, maybe the best you could do would be compare each airlines daily departure numbers.

PHL is a very large, important city, with a reasonable cost of operating, and there is currently a fortress hub there.

Why would anyone give that up? Especially to build up an airport where you can't even add flights (JFK - slots) or really connect anyone (BOS - too far out of the way), both of which have very strong competition in all markets?

I don't know, but I tend to agree with aa73. It's hard to predict with any certainty a time frame, but it could just as easily be fairly quick as it could be slow. The LCC/AWA seniority list is still a dogfight, but they are merged.

AA, while in bk, still has a pile of cash, and some huge investments lined up. I don't think money will be a problem. And really, on the surface, it wouldn't take that much. JBLU stock has been flat for 4 years, losing about 2% over the past 52 weeks. But the biggie is the market cap is only $1.7B. (for comparison, UAL $8.0, DAL $11.8) IMHO, it would be a heckuva deal right now. 'Course, you're probably right, a bidding war would break out to some degree, if nothing else, to try and make AMR overpay.

But I think as aa73 pointed out, you gotta follow the money and also what's being done in the different markets. Specifically, in this case, BOS. Then you got that big ole' AA terminal in JFK that they currently aren't running at anywhere close to max capacity. At some point, they are going to crank that thing up and it'll be game on in JFK. If I were them, I'd just buy JetBlue and be done with it.

I don't presume to know exactly what the DOT will do, but if recent history is an indicator, they've just been getting outta the way for the most part. Seems the government realizes that a handful of healthy airlines are better than a bunch of sick ones.

Be an interesting few years for sure either way.

According to that link that Smalls put up, the NYC airport slot restrictions have expired, which I hadn't heard about, but certainly is an interesting wrinkle if true.

majority of JB flights in JFK are outside the time zone for slot controlled period. Currently only DAL does anything as a fight with JB, AA just sitting on the side licking its wounds. If AA wants to (in JFK) it has ample slots to complete on a better to travel time for passengers and anything before 3pm in JFK is non slot. So AA could compete against JB on any route before 3pm to 8pm (slot period) without giving up any slot usage. All it takes is balls.

The Airline CEO's have finally, after 34 years of Deregulation, figured out there is NO MONEY in competing. That's why we are seeing all the consolodation. I seriously doubt AA wants to compete with JB for JFK, they will instead buy them, flush the overlap, and voila, not have to lower their prices to 'compete' with JB. High Fives and Management Bonuses all around.

See SWA+Air Tran, DAL+NWA, and UAL+CAL for more details.

It's the inevitable result of deregulation.

But why it took the CEO's 34 years and all those bankruptcies to figure it out is beyond me. :rolleyes:

They figured out the bankruptcy thing a long time ago real good

Well yeah, it was Frank Lorenzo who taught them how to "Neogtiate" with labor...

"Take the Pay Cuts, Or Else..."

There was an extension to the slot procedures until Oct 26, 2013. After that the FAA is supposed to have some new 'Congestion Management Rule' for JFK/LGA/EWR

https://www.federalregister.gov/arti...tional-airport

4 year thread bump.

Now the merger has occurred, what's the new rumors about AA and BOS?

Well, as of the June bid, pilots were still being awarded positions in BOS. That's encouraging.

I did hear from a LAA BOS pilot (so consider the source carefully) that eventually, all of AAL in BOS will operate out of terminal B1, or the LUS terminal, with SWA moving from Terminal A to the current LAA terminal, B2.

If the crew domicile survives the move -- i.e., renting new office space in B1, moving all the domicile infrastructure from B2 to B1, etc. -- then I think the base will be safe.

Rumored timeline is mid-2017 to mid-2018, but again, unsubstantiated.

Lots of AA E190 flying through BOS. Will the shuttle routes be upgauged? Downgauged to regionals?

Many Shuttle flights already outsourced to Republic E175's.

Are the LUS crew spaces/offices still there from when it was a domicile? If so, it shouldn't be that hard.

EMB, I honestly don't know.

I mean, I assume the space is still there; I just don't know if or how it's occupied these days.

The next time I pass through, I will inquire.

Five additional positions in BOS in the last two years. No change.

They old us crew room and offices are located between the shuttle gates and regular destination gates below the food court in terminal B. Where air wiss and penn air park today by gate 5.

Most of the space(s) were taken over by ground ops from what I last saw several years back.