What orders will AA/US cancel?
 

Combined they have roughly 600 airplanes on order.

American Airlines

Lots of overlap too.

319, 320neo, 321, 738, 737MAX
332, 358, 359, 773, 788, 789


Looking at their current fleet, I just don't really see 600 airplanes that need to be parked. Even if you parked the 734, 320, 752, 762, 763, and M80 fleets, thats only 500 airplanes.

That leaves a net gain of 100 airplanes with a total mainline fleet count of 1052 airplanes (!!!!). Obviously that isn't going to happen. So something is going to have to give in the orders department. Any guesses?

Didn't parker last week state that they were going to need all the airplanes? Maybe he was commenting on the AMR order. Not sure..

Would imagine some would be for straight replacement, Send older planes back to lessor as new ones are available at more favorable terms. Think I remember US with the original AB order was getting them for X millions. They did some acct games where they would sell them to X company for 10mil profit a pop, then turn around and lease them back. or some crap. Instant profits.......Wall Street probably loved it....

Every md80, 757, 734 needs to be replaced short term. Then the 76

All of the 757 won't go until 321neos show up.

I'd say the A350 is most at risk. I don't think it is supposed to show up until 2017 anyway.

Not every 757 needs to go, we have a sub-fleet of 20 757s that are relatively new ("relatively" meaning '01, '02 models) that fly JFK-Europe and some Deep South stuff out of MIA. I believe AA will be keeping those.

2020/2021(?) plan showed 24(?) 757's still on property.

But that plan was more than 6 minutes old so it might have changed.

Agreed, how about the A330s? How do they fit in the puzzle with the 787s? I think either the 787-8s or A330s have to be chopped

I have no idea. Parker has said that when you are a company even the size of the current US that the cost of operating lots of fleet types is outweighed by things like power in supplier contracts and fleet/route flexibility. I imagine there will be some pretty significant cost analysis going on.

By the time we are all put together our 330-300 will be a little long in the tooth. I imagine you will see lots of coming and going of new and old airplanes even in the fleets they keep. We are getting rid of the older A320s out west now and they at time return newer A/C is they can get better deals.

The E190 is a small fleet, but they pushed hard for the low rates on it. Will be interesting to see what happens with them.

Yea, the skies will turn dark with AA painted E190s in the near future.

Any idea how the new 73s and the 73MAX compare to the 757 performance wise? I know the 321 is not even in the same league and unless they put a new wing on it I don't see the neo being able to replace it on a lot of what you guys use a 757 for.

I think the 319s AA ordered are to replace the high performance airports that AA flies to out of MIA and DFW.

Wow, big drop in seats. Even with a 319 I've had seats restricted out of SJO. Maybe the neo will have more punch.

All I can say is Hawaiian ordered a bunch of 321neo's and are planning on doing west coast with 'em. Claim it works even out of Lihue (6500' runway). It might be a more viable 757 replacement than you think, although I'm not sure if trans-atlantic is really on the radar. Airbus seems to think it is.

US Airways doubts A320neo for international 757 replacement

Here's another techy article for you if you're interested in the neo vs. max fight:

Boeing 737 MAX ups the ante in dogfight with A320neo | Aspire Aviation

Maybe, but it was my understanding that the neo would have the same wing and they were squeezing the range out of the engines. Do the sharklets help altitude capability? Maybe I haven't kept up.

LIH is a sea level, and we do run the current A321 on similar legs, but I cannot imagine it at some of the high altitude airports.

Any idea how long the 75/76 will be around at L-LCC? Only plane I'd really like to fly in the fleet before it's gone!

There was an article recently talking about the need for all present orders on both sides to be kept. Replacement for the super 80s and the older 757s and 767s. The east 737 fleet will go away by next year. There are some older A320s that need to go as well. AWA had the original pan am 320s. They are worn out.

The a350 900 should be certificated next year with deliveries starting late in 2014. Most LCC orders were for the 800 version but Doug said the 900 would work for the combined carrier. So A350 orders should be safe.

Any idea of the total numer of 190's that will be in the fleet?