Update on DOJ case, they are being very vocal
 

as pessimistic I am about this, I can't but feel like maybe this is gonna happen after all. I just have this bad feeling in 2 weeks we get the article "talks between aa/us and doj break down"

But this seems like a pretty significant about face for the doj.

I think the DOJ realized they're in over their heads on this one, with nothing to back up their big talking earlier.

They screwed up bad and know they're going to get taken to the cleaners in the court room. They wish this whole thing would've never happened and are trying to figure out how to get out of it without looking like idiots.

They will. The merger will go through. The only thing that will have been accomplished is that they cost the companies and employees millions and millions in the process. But who cares, right?

I think the initial hopes of the DOJ were that one or both airlines would say screw it and not fight it, hence the attempts at a delayed trial date, attempts to delay things during the shutdown, statements by Baer that there was it was nearly impossible to settle, etc. The government was hoping that it would drive both airlines away. They failed to realize that we were coming at this thing with both barrels and that the outside support was overwhelming. At this point, I think they're just trying to get out of this thing with a slight bit of dignity still intact (is there such a thing in government?).

This is just Chicago politics on a national scale, but with one problem. Light. Cockroaches have learned how to avoid it in Chicago. They are use to getting their way. They have not perfected it nationally. Look at the players. A message was sent. Who knows the reasons behind it. But it is for a political reason. A larger judicial branch cannot all be corrupted like in Chicago. Light. So they try to achieve a political goal and back away in the light of independence judicial review. Anyone who thinks otherwise does not know what is going on in the US.

This is exactly what the DOJ had hoped for, delay delay delay until the expiration of the merger completion clock. Now with all the political pressure and the expedited trial date the government has to go to court with "ticket prices" as the basis of their case. That would be a loser and a waste of the tax payers money.

WD at AWA

Which I don't think would be a negative turn of events big picture. A big IF the talks break down (I don't see happening), that probably means the airlines won't give in to the DOJ's unrealistic concessions and are VERY confident they will win in court. The airlines won't be giving up so much that they lose their competitive advantage and synergies of the merger.

Or if they do break down they might think it's better to lose the court case and scuttle the merger than give in too many concessions and make it not worth it. DP isn't the final authority on all this, the ucc will decided how much is too much even if DP begs them to reconsider.

Actually their case is based on section 7 of the clayton act. All they need to prove is that this merger is anti-competitive. They have the 1000 1 stop connects via the hhi and dougs e-mails. I think if it goes to trial it's a 50/50 shot at best. Its not a slam dunk case for the doj but it's not pathetic and weak like everyone makes it out to be either.

You're pessimistic about everything. I just hope i never have to meet or work with you in real life. It seems it's always raining and cloudy where you are. It would really suck to get rained on indoors! Suns shining where I am and merger or no merger, I'll survive...

I take a realist approach to this and don't subscribe to the echo chamber here..