AA Remaining furloughee analysis?
 

Much has been discussed in regards to the upcoming sli (seniority list integration) as to where the fuloughed aa pilots will fall into the upcoming combined list. Thats a valid discussion but not the intent if this new thread. We need to look more deeply into how many aa furloughs may return and all of the variables that effect this.

I wanted to start a thread that analyzes more deeply the following

1. How many aa furloughs are remaining?
2. What is the average age of the furloughs?
3 . How many have deferred and what is the current protocol for future deferral.

I do understand there are no absolute concrete answers to these questions but I think many of us would like some more information on this subject. I am a third lister like many of us reading this. Im sure many of us would respectfully like to understand this complex dynamic further as it has profound implications on our future seniority.

discuss

I was interested in reviewing those totals myself, and just did so on our APA website. According to their updated totals as of 1/1/14, there are 1170 pilots at AA that remain on furlough, 744 of which have deferred recall. The deferred number is a little confusing to me, since they made a big deal last May of all pilots being offered recall, thus starting the 3 year deferment clock. This means if you have elected to defer your recall to AA, and AA is hiring in May 2016, you must make a go/no go decision at that point. So I would assume that all 1170 of those furloughees have deferred if they are not back--what am I missing?

Anyway, for your planning as a third lister at US, there are quite a few "wild card" furloughees out there at AA and many would be senior to you. However, we are talking about people who have been away from the airline for 10+ years and I would think most have moved on.

Hope this helps...

All pilots have been offered recall, no question about it. I too am confused as to why the deferred number does not match the total out on furlough.

I'm curious about total longevity for the AA furloughs, time spent actually flying the line for AA/TWA. I know some of the most junior furloughees had less than a year on property, but obviously others had more. Can anyone offer insight into rough numbers of guys with 1, 2, 3, etc years of service?

Furlough bypass.
Some maybe Captains for Jet Blue or under contract for their pilot services elsewhere. As their seniority improves, my guess is they will return. Jet Blue has Captains leaving to take Delta recall.

I know this is not the specific intent to discuss here, but wondering if it makes a difference whether a furloughee is actually on the property during the integration or not. What I mean is, could a pilot be put in a different place on the new list just because he/she deferred too long? Or is it just the number that counts? Any speculation on where near-bottom furlough guys may be put?

This has been discussed elsewhere in the merger section and it usually goes south quickly. They can't (and won't) lose their position on the AA list because they exercised their contractual right to bypass.

Guys get upset at the mere mention of this.

Curious to see some hard numbers as well. From what I've read, by the time the intent to merge was announced last year, most of the AA list had been offered recall. The only guys who hadn't been offered recall had pretty low total length of service (1 year or less). This is my understanding but I haven't seen any real numbers.

I think if it shakes out as I suspect, the fears of many 3rd listers about getting totally shafted in the SLI are mostly unfounded. But we shall see. I think it is fair for guys who legally defer recall to not lose out because of it, or at least only lose an amount proportional to their voluntary deferral.

How does it work, in fact, on the AA contract? Let's say you are position 10,000 on the AA list, and are offered recall. You elect to bypass/defer. I'm assuming your position at 10,000 becomes frozen, and as there's movement on the list they guy who was 10,001 becomes 9,999 etc., passing you. So you do lose something.

I think the positions merged in a SLI would be the stovepipe positions, not those actually holding them. So there would be X number of AA 777 captain, X number of US 330 captains, ect on down the list. Then then they go down the list and insert by seniority order.

Just because all AA guys have been offered recall doesn't mean there was room for all of them. If everyone had taken it in seniority order, then there may have been some that had not been offered recall yet.

Just saying, no idea of what the real AA numbers look like. I believe all west pilots have been offered recall, but several deferred, so there may be some over there below the "active line".

3rd listers go up to around 15% from the bottom or more at US. Doubtful that furloughed AA guys would go ahead in the SLI. Check out DL/NW, CO/UA, and 9E/XJ SLIs to see how furloughs have faired in the past.