Someone mentioned "Future generations"
My opinion. 1. This is the last generation being hired right now.
My guess. By 2035 1 pilot per cockpit. Preflight duties and monitor. My guess. 2040 no pilots. Maintenance will do pre-flight post flight walk arounds. For inflight medical emergencies FA's will have inflight SATCOM with Physician on call and dispatch. This is available now. Thoughts? Braking action < based on non reported weather phenomenon in taxi landing takeoff. Could drone-liners repeat Miracle on the Hudson result? Could "Hal" ("rotate the pod Hal") go rogue and overfly causing missed connections because he had a poor interface with ATC's SYNTHERIA droneport generation IV ? Or should we leave the (s) on generations ? |
I don't see pilotless airliners coming to fruition. Iran has hacked our drones and Hezbollah has hacked Israel's. It is far too much liability.
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We can't even taxi out and not screw up, you think systems will be so reliable and so error free in 20 years? I've been in the industry for 13 and very little has changed, hell, we're just now getting iPads. I think it's a bit further off than that. Just my humble opinion.
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If training keeps heading the direction it has been, there will be pilotless airliners even with a pilot or two on board.
If a pilot or two were left to monitor and take control in case of a hack or other problem, their skills would be so minimal I don't think they would be effectual. I somewhat agree, at some point airliners will be SAT flown , with a person or two up front wearing a pilot uniform, but they won't be "aviators". |
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In the next few years I expect some sort of MPL like they do in Europe. |
A few years ago there was a show on one of the business channels that featured three airline executives, one that I remember for sure was the founder of Jet Blue. Towards the end of the show the participants were asked for predictions for the future and this subject came up. Just the thought of some day eliminating pilots brought a ******* eating grin to the faces of each of the execs. If it can be sold to the traveling public you bet it will happen and you better believe they are working even now to get it to happen. For example, the next time an inflight emergency requires an emergency landing listen very carefully to the news report, there will be no mention of the pilots, the news will only report that "the airplane landed safely" never mentioning that the aircraft was piloted to a safe landing. A small distinction but very intentional on the part of the airlines. Of course the useless pilot "associations" have absolutely no concept or apparent concern for public relations, especially when it comes to representing the professional pilots in a positive light to the public, so do not expect them to be smart enough to pick up on this little tidbit. The single pilot airliner will be here sooner than you think.
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We have self driving cars that can do this:
And rockets that can do this: The only thing holding us back from pilotless airliners is our ATC system and airport design. I'm new to the industry and am already trying to learn new skills that will keep me employed when piloting is no longer an option. This career will not take me to age 65. |
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I'll disagree. New aircraft being bought now (737, 320 etc) are still based on decades old technology, look at SW still flying 300s and same guys fly a 700 the next leg. Aircraft retiring today are 20-30-40 years old. Fuel efficiency is the only thing really driving those retirements.
New airliners still don't have the technology in the cockpit that a new Cessna or cirrus or other GA aircraft have. Electronic jepps just now taking a big leap into the commercial world. Now these new aircraft being delivered still require 2 pilots. Look how long it took to get the FE out of the cockpit and even then there are still planes flying around with them. I mean...trains still have engine drivers and they are on a track. I would think they could hook up some electronics satellite controlled with a pre set timing on when the horn operates. All could be remotely controlled from a central location. At best, with everything falling into place I give it a minimum of 25 years before they even mess with single pilot airliners where he/she still has the ability to control the plane. We are several generations of aircraft design away from having truly unmanned airliners. Just an opinion though |
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