Seventhreecapt

Ok, I know this post will draw a lot of fire, but it should make for some interesting replies. Disclosure: I am a mid level narrow body capt at Legacy AA. I was hired between 88 and 92. My seniority is between 2400 and 4000 at LAA. Assumptions: 1. The Nic is not used in the model. My reasoning is a. I lack the knowledge the arbitrator used in fashioning the award. b. enough time has passed that the assumptions the award were based on are no longer valid. c. The two airlines are currently operating under 3 lists. 2. Date of hire is not used, only relative seniority. 3. Credit for Aircraft Orders is based on 50 percent of the order. (this number could be changed, but is a starting point. 4. Group 4 First officer slots are equivalent to group 2 Captain slots. This assumption was made by a previous arbitrator in a Legacy AA case. Further, in DFW the top 60 percent of the 777 FO list could be group 3 (not group 2, but group 3) captains. Group 1 Captains are feathered (slotted) with group 2 First officers. This is based not he fact that a new hire at L US can hold group 1 Captain, and based on the fact that the pay rate is roughly equivalent to Group 2 First officer. Base all ratios on current AAL staffing numbers, because after the transition to SOC, thats what the job opportunities will be based on. 5. No assumption was made about future aircraft retirements, this is moving target and would be difficult to predict the future. The same is applied to aircraft OPTIONS. 6. Specifically date of hire was not looked at due to the disparate hiring cycles of 3 airlines and wide swaths of seniority in each airline list.

So..lets begin..
These numbers are EXAMPLES only, actual integration based on real number.

Take number of Group 4 aircraft from US East, US PHX, LAA
Example East-30, PHX-0, LAA-50
Take number of Group 4 Options and multiply by .5 (assumption)
East-20 PHX-20 (orders are split because of assumption of future ISL.(integrated seniority list). and L AA.60. ..
Multiplied by .5 yields East 10 PHX 10, LAA 30..

Combine and you get East 40, PHX 10, LAA 80.
Start with The largest Group -AA...and ratio based on current manning

EXAMPLE: Start ratio at number one, end ratio at total aircraft (130 in EXAMPLE) multiplied by Group 4 manning. 6 Capts per aircraft times 130 yields 780 Group 4 captain slots ratioed by 8/13, 4/13, 1/13. Start at the top of Each list, AA, US East, PHX.

Next Ratio the Group 3 Aircraft slots the same way, with PHX and US East sharing the Group 3 Orders (times 50 percent)
Use the current LAA staffing level for group 3 Capts.

Next, Ratio the Group 2 Aircraft slots the same way, with one exception. Each Seniority list (PHX, US EAST, and LAA) get credit for Group 4 First officer manning per current aircraft and .5 of orders for Group 2 Captain slots.

Next, Since credit was given to Group 4 First officer slots to Group 2 Captain slots, Ratio the Group 3 First officer slots at current LAA manning levels with credit for .5 times Group 3 orders and again orders split between PHX and US East 50/50.

Next ratio Group 2 First officer lots with Group 1 Capt slots.
With credit for orders where due.

Anyone hired after dec 2013 is slotted by DATE OF HIRE.


Three year fences for Group 4 Aircraft.
Two year fences for Group 3 Aircraft.

No one can be bumped out of their seat. Only preference bidding across fences for two years..This issue would have to be refined.


This proposal gives everyone credit for
1. What they own now and what they are flying now.
2. Their relative position on the seniority list
3. Their career expectations relative to wide body flying and Capt positions.
4. It does not specifically recognize date of hire.


This is an idea that would need modification, but..lets hear some ideas. An arbitrator will probably decide this, but he will listen to our input.

Saabs

Why do people even try to guess? Just play Monday morning qb when its all said and done.

DarinFred

This is like predicting the weather in Timbuktu on July 14th, 2018. We'll get what we get, whether we like it or not.

PurpleTurtle

New orders are replacement aircraft, and mainline will shrink. Erosion of scope has been the profit model since Orville and Wilbur.

And like everyone says, we will all get what we get in the SLI... Even O&W aren't safe as #1 & #2.

flybywire44

Two critiques:

West pilots may not be credited wide body aircraft. I certainly doubt they would be credited more than the ratio of physical bodies in PHX vs East... 3:1

AA on a stand alone basis was shrinking. It's orders were a refresh. Bankruptcy would have forced industry standard outsourcing. Tom Horton announced 400 furloughs. Orders can always be sold, especially in bankruptcy. The US Airways merger reversed this and even upgraded some aircraft orders into lathers variants.

Overall, I enjoyed your insight. Thanks.

Al Czervik

Interesting but...
No points for AC orders unless they are purely growth. New replacement aircraft mean zero.

algflyr

I think they do because the SLI isn't complete yet. It's possible that certain ideas and other methods could be explored and passed on to the merger committees for consideration. Perhaps a few good ideas could be formulated that will indeed shape the construction of the new list.

Seventhreecapt

My post is not a guess. If you read it, it is a suggestion for a way to integrate 3 lists. I am not trying to anticipate the arbitrators award. I am merely suggesting a method for integration that could be presented to the arbitrators, or....forbidden fruit, we solve this without an arbitrator (yes pigs would fly).

As for replacement aircraft, If we agree the A350 and the 787 are replacement for the 767, arent we replacing a group 3 with a group 4?
So the group 4 methodology would still be valid, Also, the .5 ratio for fleet additions could be modded to .2 or .3, or .xx. The methodology is unchanged. Some are replacement.....but its hard to guess which will be and which won't be. Yes, its fleet renewal..but there will be SOME 757 and SOME 767 on the AA side in the foreseeable future. There isn't going to be a brand new 787 doing DFW -HNL and OGG.

Why wouldn't west be credited for the group 3 aircraft (757) that they currently fly now??? Orders could be on a ration between PHX (west) and US east. Wouldn't that be somewhat fair?

Keep making suggestions. A model is only a model, lets wind tunnel test it!

And yes, this idea is for possible suggestions to the SLI committees that will form the SLI.

Thanks for your input...keep 'em coming!

encore

If 3 separate lists are brought together, everyone seems to agree that it would most likely be the lists that were in effect either on the announcement date or the POR.

With this in mind, in a 3-way combination, is it possible that a pre-AA merger US East new hire (someone hired in 2006-2012) could end up senior to a West pilot hired before the HP/US merger?

Sliceback

Have you sent it to the SLI committee?