The new American staffing requirements?
 

AA/US combined is approximately what, 15k pilots?

With the consolidation from SLI, the implementation of PBS, and the combination of the international and domestic operations, what size do you anticipate the pilot group to be in the upcoming years?

Don't know answer for the total group size but I did hear that the plans are to hire over 600 in 2015.
CG

PBS alone on LAA side will decrease ~1500 jobs, says prior management. So combined probably 2200 less jobs. Sounds like a lot, bit it's really "only" 15%, which is reasonable when compared to other airlines when they realized the "efficiencies" of PBS. This is to operate the same amount of flying.

But when AA is able to realize the synergies of the merger and start closing, probably 2-3 bases in all, another 1500 jobs gone.

IF domestic/international statuses combine, -400 jobs.

I see before their recall rights expire within the next 2 years, 500 or so deferred recalls will return.

So all I all, that's 4600 pilots AA will not need to hire to replace retirements when all this happens gradually.

Let's say I'm overly pessimistic, we'll just call it 3500 then.

So I see hiring starting from later next year come to a halt or to a trickle for 3 years or so.

This is of of course is best case scenario with the economy staying great and no black swan events.

This is a copy cat industry. See the delta and united mergers for guidance.

Well except copying pilot contracts ;)

Apparently, the other airlines aren't very good at realizing efficiencies, because AA already has less pilots per plane than United and Delta.

Base closures aren't likely. 2-3 base closures isn't going to happen.

Other than that, nice job trolling!

The less pilots per plane I believe is due to less wide bodies and international flying.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

At the time of the USA/AWE merger, those combined airlines had eight crew bases. They now have four.

Parker does not like multiple crew bases.

If I were based in BOS or PHX, I might be a bit concerned.

(And is STL still open? If so, I wouldn't bet on its long-term prospects, either...)

STL is gone already. PHX isn't going anywhere. The AA presence on the West Coast is sorely lacking. LAX can only be grown so much...and that's not much. BOS? US spends a fortune on hotel costs there each night. Will it close? I suppose crazier things have happened, but I wouldn't put my money on that. There's a lot of money to be made there.

Believe what you want...but, hey, here's a hint. If the plan was to shrink the airline and the pilot force, would they be hiring 50-75 a month right now? No...hiring would have halted at the POR.

Wow. Lots of really bad info on this thread. Nobody knows the answer, purely speculation. The new AA can't afford to shrink.

LUS has 7 hotels they are using right now in BOS, can't imagine it closing as an AA base.

Union said AA lineholders flying more than DL and UA lineholders. Cutting pilots would increase that. I'd guess the projected job cuts are wildly pessimistic.

What nobody has mentioned yet is that the pilot retirement schedule more than takes care of the staffing issues over the next decade. They will still need to hire despite any efficiencies that pbs, combined statuses, etc bring.

My opinion is kinda midde of the road. It's a fact PBS is more efficient and allows management to do more with less and that kicks in in 2016, I believe. It's why most managements want it and is about to become "industry standard". The combination of International and Domestic would also SEEM to produce efficiencies, but almost certainly less then PBS. If we go to arbitration, then this issue is most likely off the table, so for it to be a contributory factor, we'd have to have a deal outside of arbitration. If it does occur it too would also be in full swing sometime next year.

Combined, they would very likely require less pilots. The question is then based on the retirement schedule would this result in no hiring and little movement ?

That's tough to quantify. In the short term once those factors are implemented, quite possibly. Over the long-term like 10 years as 73 points out, the retirement schedule is too fast and hiring would have to occur unless of course, AA were to shrink or some unforeseen political or economic (frequently they are hand-in-hand) situation would again produce the cyclical impact that this industry has ALWAYS had. If I were to place a bet, I'd say hiring will remain, but be modest in 2015 at say 40/month and then for an undetermined period of time the factors discussed would be an impact, but to what degree is speculation. After a few years though, AA would have to hire and in ever increasing numbers, unless those unforeseen circumstances impact it.

I wouldn't let this concern impact those applying or worried about being furloughed or stagnating at the bottom should a hiccup occur in hiring/movement though.

while we are at it does any fellow pilots have some good investing advice? :rolleyes::D

Just keep telling yourself that.

Whatever. Doesn't affect me one way or the other if it closes or grows.

Until the PHX pilots displace into your domicile.

I'm not disputing either of you, personally, because you are absolutely correct.

However, that is the exact same argument that the AFA and USAPA put forth when the US BOS base closing was announced, and it fell upon deaf ears. And BOS was supporting the Shuttle operation at the time.

Apparently, the hotel expenses were more than offset by the savings from not paying Massport the rent on office space and employee parking, not having to pay management pilots and their office staff, etc.

And if anybody in management actually comes out and says that they're not planning any changes to your base, that's when you should start looking for a realtor.

"We have no plans to further downsize Pittsburgh".

How long does a long call have to call back scheduling? I was given a no contact for not calling back after 10mins. Thought I had 2 hours?

LAX is growing fast with all the int'l stuff especially the A380's. Soon, they'll have to start cutting gates, two per year.

Pretty much every airline there wants to make it a hub. The way it's going no one will be able to.

PHX might have to stick around.

You thought you had 2 hours to call back? Nuts!

llllllllmmmmaaaaaooooo!!!!!

Not sure what funny but I believe a long call on the LUS side has 2 hours. Now whether call comes from Daily or Futures is the grey area.

Oh...I see. Reading is fundamental :p

Thanks for the help....solidarity brother.:rolleyes:

Tee hee....

AA already has a BOS crew base. Added additional crewmembers has a small increase in costs since a lot of the space, staff, and management is already in place.

Long call has 12 hours to report time. If you are on an off day, you don't have to call them back at all. If you are on a reserve day, you are required to call them back, usually within 10-15 minutes. I always make it 10 mins. After that, you will get a NCT...

So did LUS.

And a fairly good sized one, too; which at one time even hosted a 767 to FRA, and many flights to the Caribbean.

And then it started getting smaller, and smaller...

'Sound familiar?

JetBlue is cleaning up there.