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kevbo
04-11-2017, 03:45 PM
According to the FAAs civil airman statistics, approximately 57,000 A&Ps vanished.


JohnBurke
04-11-2017, 03:49 PM
In the last 50 years? Ten minutes? Seconds?

kevbo
04-11-2017, 03:59 PM
They reported 317,000 in 2015 and 260,000 in 2016. If the numbers are true, there is still a massive oversupply.


JohnBurke
04-12-2017, 04:24 AM
They reported 317,000 in 2015 and 260,000 in 2016. If the numbers are true, there is still a massive oversupply.

This is an increase of 43,000.

Your thread title states that 57,000 A&P's have vanished.

How is a number of 260,000 certificated aircraft mechanics an "oversupply?"

kevbo
04-12-2017, 01:26 PM
Most likely the FAA is now counting the new plastic certificates instead of original issues. Many mechanics are inactive but still being counted. My oversupply theory is based on the old traditional number of mechanics per airframe and mechanic to pilot ratio. 260,000 is twice the number needed to cover the work. Also factor most heavy maintenance has left the country and new airframes have lighter maintenance schedules. Airlines have not hired new mechanics in 17yrs, they simply don't need very many anymore. I am happy to see the official numbers falling, maybe someday A&Ps can gain some pricing power or at least get their careers back.

tomgoodman
04-12-2017, 01:50 PM
approximately 57,000 A&Ps vanished.

They were abducted by an alien press gang. Saucers need maintenance too. :D

atpcliff
04-12-2017, 03:18 PM
The Pilot Shortage is really bad, and getting a lot worse. The shortage of engineers (mechs) to fix the airplanes, is much, much worse than the shortage of pilots.

kevbo
04-12-2017, 04:14 PM
The Pilot Shortage is really bad, and getting a lot worse. The shortage of engineers (mechs) to fix the airplanes, is much, much worse than the shortage of pilots.

Oh how I wish it were true.

JohnBurke
04-12-2017, 08:08 PM
Most likely the FAA is now counting the new plastic certificates instead of original issues.

The FAA need only note how many certificates are presently issued, that have not been suspended, surrendered, or revoked, and which do not pertain to known deceased.

My oversupply theory is based on the old traditional number of mechanics per airframe and mechanic to pilot ratio. 260,000 is twice the number needed to cover the work.

Oversupply theory? You opened the thread with a title which states that 57,000 A&P's have been "lost." You failed to support this assertion, and instead claimed an increase of 43,000 mechanics, and went on to backtrack and state that there is an "oversupply."

So far as the number of mechanics per airframe, given the massive disparity between aircraft types and the hours needed to support those various types, it's impossible to draw a correlation between the number of airframes and the number of mechanics per airframe. Some airframes may require large teams to maintain, others may have one mechanic maintaining several aircraft.

The number of pilots is irrelevant, and has no relationship whatsoever to the number of mechanics, or to the need for mechanics. There is no valid correlation to mechanic requirement based on the number of pilots. Moreover, given the large disparity in pilot types and functions, you'd have to be a lot more specific, and were you more specific, it would still have no bearing on a number of needed mechanics.

Also factor most heavy maintenance has left the country and new airframes have lighter maintenance schedules.

Considerable heavy maintenance continues to be done in the USA. Mechanics perform work other than heavy maintenance, and whether the work is done domestically or abroad, the number of airframes upon which you base your "oversupply theory" remains the same, whether those US registered aircraft fly outside the US or not.

Your assertion that most heavy maintenance has left the country is untrue, and you have not qualified it by aircraft type or type of operation.

Airlines have not hired new mechanics in 17yrs, they simply don't need very many anymore.

What a fanciful and wildly idiotic thing to say. You're actually going to attempt to assert that the newest maintenance hires at any airline have been on the job for 17 years? Completely untrue.

I am happy to see the official numbers falling, maybe someday A&Ps can gain some pricing power or at least get their careers back.

You're happy to see the numbers falling? You just provided numbers showing an increase of 43,000.

You're all over the place, posting contradictory numbers, stating that there's a decrease, throwing out numbers which show an increase, and making assertions that you can't back up.

Many pilots are mechanics. I spent my day working in a shop where all but two mechanics were pilots, each a working commercial pilot. Of those two mechanics, one is completing a private pilot, the other hoping to start on his pilot certification soon.

Many mechanics hold certificates but don't do maintenance for a living, just as many pilots don't fly for a living. While pilots have multiple levels of certification from private to ATP, mechanics don't.

To attempt to suggest that a raw number of mechanics is an "oversupply" based on the number of pilots, number of airframes, or some other metric, is absurd.

There is no pilot shortage. There is no mechanic oversupply.

I continue to do maintenance just as I've done for decades, including heavy maintenance and everything from hydraulics to sheet metal to powerplant work on large and small radials, turboprops, and turbojet aircraft. I am a full time pilot. So far as maintenance goes, I have more work available than I could possibly take on, and more in the offering, and presently additional requests for maintenance that I can't fill due to my own time constraints. I see plenty of work for mechanics.

You cited 57,000 missing mechanics. Support your assertion.

kevbo
04-12-2017, 09:35 PM
That's easy, go to WWW.FAA.GOV and see table 14 in civil airman statistics. Compare all years, you can see that they reported 317,000 for 2015 and 260,000 for 2016. Is that not a decrease of 57,000? If you really are a working
mechanic, you know that the FAA recently required us to apply for a new plastic certificate for security of our SSN and so they could track who is active. A significant drop would be expected if only working mechanics are suddenly being counted. Im sure others have noticed the big empty hangars around Dallas. I counted 19 empty bays that were full a decade ago. There have always been more pro pilots than mechanics at any airline, even when all MX was performed in house. No one becomes a mechanic for fun anymore than anyone would get an ATP rating just for the hell of it. Compare those numbers, yep, over twice as many A&Ps than ATPs. The fact that wages are still flat for A&Ps indicate a condition of oversupply. Johnburke, you are a busy man. You seem to have more knowledge and experience than most guys could accumulate in three lifetimes.

JohnBurke
04-12-2017, 10:48 PM
If you really are a working
mechanic, you know that the FAA recently required us to apply for a new plastic certificate for security of our SSN and so they could track who is active.

If? No, I am a long-time working mechanic and pilot.

Recently? No, not recently. The rule came into place in 2008, and mechanics were given until 2013.

A significant drop would be expected if only working mechanics are suddenly being counted.

How would the FAA know if a mechanic were a "working mechanic?" The FAA doesn't track "working mechanics," and has no way to know if a mechanic is working, or if a mechanic certificate holder is utilizing his or her mechanic certificate.

I work frequently with a mechanic who has been a practicing, active working mechanic for many years. He does not presently hold a mechanic certificate. He does excellent work, and excels at sheet metal. He does good engine work, electrical, hydraulic, and is a great troubleshooter. He doesn't require a mechanic certificate presently, and doesn't hold one, though he has in the past and is very active. He won't show up on your statistics.

I've worked with many mechanics in repair stations who did not hold airframe or powerplant ratings, yet were full time, working mechanics. No way for the FAA to count them, either. Non-rated mechanics are not uncommon in repair stations. Or hangars or shops.

You seem to make the assumption that those who obtained a plastic certificate were working as mechanics, which is a ridiculous assumption.

There have always been more pro pilots than mechanics at any airline, even when all MX was performed in house.

Now you're counting only airlines? That's one segment of aviation. Just one.

You've got statistics on pilot and mechanic numbers at any given airline?

Im sure others have noticed the big empty hangars around Dallas. I counted 19 empty bays that were full a decade ago.

You're basing your incorrect, unequivocal statements on local observations? You're aware that there are new facilities in some places, while others fall into disuse?


No one becomes a mechanic for fun anymore than anyone would get an ATP rating just for the hell of it.

Both statements are untrue. Many obtain mechanic certification with no intention of every working professionally as an aircraft mechanic.

A number of people obtain the ATP without needing it or without intending to go on to fly in a role requiring the ATP. Some do it for the challenge. Some do it to add on another rating to their existing rating. I know quite a few people who hold mechanic certificates with the intent of doing no more than working on their own aircraft, and I know many who obtained mechanic certification prior to leaving the military and who do not work in aviation maintenance.

The fact that wages are still flat for A&Ps indicate a condition of oversupply.

No, it really doesn't. I certainly have no trouble obtaining maintenance work, because there is plenty.

I do maintenance not only because it provides income, but also because I like doing it. If I didn't, I wouldn't do it. It's fun. Go figure.

Johnburke, you are a busy man. You seem to have more knowledge and experience than most guys could accumulate in three lifetimes.

I hold five FAA certificates. I use them. Sue me.

kevbo
04-13-2017, 06:56 PM
OK, so they're not counting the current plastic certificates which are the only ones legal to use? Instead they are counting original issues that are no longer valid? Maybe so, it is the government after all. It is a little eye opening that in one year 18% of the population either died or lost their certificate, this is possible as well. It think this trend would alarm anyone who owned or operated an aircraft.

JohnBurke
04-13-2017, 07:36 PM
OK, so they're not counting the current plastic certificates which are the only ones legal to use? Instead they are counting original issues that are no longer valid? Maybe so, it is the government after all.

You're not stupid enough to think that the FAA is running around counting pieces of plastic in people's wallets, are you?

The FAA doesn't need to do that, you see. They issued the damn certificates. They have computer records to count the number of certificated mechanics.

It is a little eye opening that in one year 18% of the population either died or lost their certificate, this is possible as well.

You have no idea what accounts for the differences in the numbers. You're far too busy jumping to conclusions and making non sequitur inferences and illogical and ill informed false statements to worry about the actual reason.

Apparently it's very important to you, though one would be hard pressed to tell, given your diversions into unsubstantiated theories and outright false statements.

There have been cases in the past few years of mechanic certificates that were invalidated when the FAA investigated the entity that was facilitating the certification. There are those who surrender their certificates, quit, die, or have them revoked through certificate action. It may be that the FAA simply did some housecleaning in their records. Who knows? Who cares?

It think this trend would alarm anyone who owned or operated an aircraft.

You've waffled repeatedly on the subject, most recently asserting that there are too many mechanics. Now you postulate that the lower number of mechanics, while still far too high for you, is cause for alarm. Flip-flop. Flip-flop. Back peddle, and flip again.

kevbo
04-13-2017, 08:16 PM
I i have waffled on perspectives but not facts. There is an over supply of mechanics as evidenced by every metric I can find. This is good for owner/operators but bad for mechanics. A decreasing supply trend will at some point reverse this dynamic.

JohnBurke
04-14-2017, 04:31 AM
I i have waffled on perspectives but not facts. There is an over supply of mechanics as evidenced by every metric I can find. This is good for owner/operators but bad for mechanics. A decreasing supply trend will at some point reverse this dynamic.

You have waffled on everything, and presented "perspective" as fact. Your statements are false.

You stated that:
A&P's vanished. This is false. It's not possible.
There is a mechanic "oversupply." This has never been the case.
The FAA is counting plastic certificates. The FAA has no need.
Airlines have not hired mechanics in 17 years. Very false.
Most heavy maintenance has left the country. False.
Large disparity of pro pilots vs. mechanics at airlines...(American, for example) has the largest base of approx 13,000 pilots, yet approx 11,000 mechanics and related, 11,000 pilots at United, 9,000 mechanics, etc)
Wages are flat for mechanics (Last year, United mechanics rejected a contract proposal of a 25% increase in wage plus bonuses; they knew they could do better)
Some kind of relationship exists between the number of pilots and mechanics. Patently false.
18% of the mechanic population has died or lost their certificate. Unsupported and false.
The FAA required plastic certificates recently. The requirement went out in 2008. It's 2017 now.
Plastic certificates were to protect social security numbers. Very false.
Plastic certificates were introduced to count the number of working mechanics. False and ridiculous.
And so on.

Do you waffle on about this material simply to be controversial, or are you really this poorly informed?

kevbo
04-14-2017, 11:22 AM
I hope I die before I get old!

JohnBurke
04-14-2017, 01:58 PM
I hope I die before I get old!

Do it in silence.

This message is hidden because Kevbo is on your ignore list.

Troll-be-gone. It works.

Vital Signs
04-15-2017, 07:22 PM
This is an increase of 43,000.

How is going from 317,000 to 260,000 an increase?

Rama
04-15-2017, 09:09 PM
The airline that I work for is always has jobs for A&P's on the job postings. Its a far cry from the 90's when jobs were scarce. Today they hire them right out of school and still have a tough time filling the slots. Newer airplanes require less maintenance, however airlines are buying airframes at a high rate.

kevbo
04-15-2017, 09:15 PM
The airline that I work for is always has jobs for A&P's on the job postings. Its a far cry from the 90's when jobs were scarce. Today they hire them right out of school and still have a tough time filling the slots. Newer airplanes require less maintenance, however airlines are buying airframes at a high rate.

I know, they try to hire them right out of school but don't pay enough to attract even the poor kids that become mechanics.

HuggyU2
04-17-2017, 09:09 PM
How is going from 317,000 to 260,000 an increase?
It's the new "modern math" they're teaching the kids in schools these days.

Actually I'm guessing that:
- the OP originally put "217,000", and then edited it;
- or John read it as "217,000" when it actually said "317,000".

Either way, I've spent more time on this thread than I should have.

JohnBurke
04-17-2017, 09:26 PM
Actually I'm guessing that:
- the OP originally put "217,000", and then edited it;
- or John read it as "217,000" when it actually said "317,000".


The former is possible, but the latter more likely. I quoted him, and if he changed his post, I don't think it would have altered the quote. If the quote is correct, then I misread the numbers in his initial post.

The other comments remain unchanged.

kevbo
04-18-2017, 12:53 AM
It's the new "modern math" they're teaching the kids in schools these days.



Either way, I've spent more time on this thread than I should have.

This the grease monkey section, nothing of any interest to a pilot here.

geosync
04-18-2017, 08:47 AM
I'm a Comm pilot/A&P, that does neither professionally currently. However, I'm in claims and talk/visit shops and operators on a weekly basis. Obviously I'm one of those rated airmen that is not actively in maintenance, and we have several other claims guys in our company that have A&Ps but don't work as one. I've also worked in the space industry building satellites, and that industry has tons of A&Ps no longer in aviation. In the field currently, I talk to maintenance managers that are dying for help, from large corporate iron down to entry level GA. They can't find A&Ps to save their lives. And boy, if you know avionics you can name your price. So the official numbers might say one thing, but on the ground the landscape is quite different, at least from my perspective. Ok, that's all I got, I'll extract myself from the running argument now.

JohnBurke
04-18-2017, 08:58 AM
Ok, that's all I got, I'll extract myself from the running argument now.

There's no argument to be had. Your observation is quite correct, and there's no point arguing against the truth.

kevbo
04-18-2017, 02:24 PM
I'm a Comm pilot/A&P, that does neither professionally currently. However, I'm in claims and talk/visit shops and operators on a weekly basis. Obviously I'm one of those rated airmen that is not actively in maintenance, and we have several other claims guys in our company that have A&Ps but don't work as one. I've also worked in the space industry building satellites, and that industry has tons of A&Ps no longer in aviation. In the field currently, I talk to maintenance managers that are dying for help, from large corporate iron down to entry level GA. They can't find A&Ps to save their lives. And boy, if you know avionics you can name your price. So the official numbers might say one thing, but on the ground the landscape is quite different, at least from my perspective. Ok, that's all I got, I'll extract myself from the running argument now.

Thank you for the report. I am happy to hear that there are good opportunities for A&Ps that were displaced or unable to find gainful employment in the industry.

oldsmobubble
04-26-2017, 01:57 AM
Well I know we are hiring, We have even dropped the 6 year heavy jet experience requirement to
get hired. We don't start out at a great hourly rate but in 5 years you are at the leading pay rate in the industry

dbflyer
01-22-2018, 06:56 AM
Well I know we are hiring, We have even dropped the 6 year heavy jet experience requirement to
get hired. We don't start out at a great hourly rate but in 5 years you are at the leading pay rate in the industry

Mind saying who you work for? My son is working on his A&P through a high school tech program. Helping him work through possibilities and interested in what others think industry leading pay is? My background is mostly GA and corporate so always interested in opinions from other segments of the industry.

kevbo
01-23-2018, 04:53 PM
Mind saying who you work for? My son is working on his A&P through a high school tech program. Helping him work through possibilities and interested in what others think industry leading pay is? My background is mostly GA and corporate so always interested in opinions from other segments of the industry.

Top pay at majors is over $50/hr right now, which is better than doing it for the Walmart wages everyone else pays. Landing one of these jobs is like winning the lottery, there is no career ladder for mechanics. Aside from affirmative action quotas, hiring seems completely random. Airline maintenance was the most horrible six figure job that I have ever had. If the kid has a brain send him to college, don't waste it squirting grease.



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