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View Full Version : Career Earnings


SkyNation
07-15-2017, 10:43 AM
a friend and I are comparing numbers. He's in class at SWA, I'm a hopeful. He's 47, I'm a bit younger. He feels this is a very conservative guess at what he'll earn each year by mostly just flying his line trying to maximize days off. Targets upgrade at year 10 on property. Thoughts? In reading this forum this seems about right, but I really don't know.


$ 90,000.00 first year
$ 110,000.00 second year
$ 130,000.00 etc.
$ 160,000.00
$ 160,000.00
$ 160,000.00
$ 160,000.00
$ 160,000.00
$ 160,000.00
$ 275,000.00
$ 275,000.00
$ 275,000.00
$ 275,000.00
$ 275,000.00
$ 275,000.00
$ 320,000.00
$ 320,000.00
$ 320,000.00


hoover
07-15-2017, 11:51 AM
2nd yr is low. Closer to 140-150. Once you make cpt you are pretty much at the top of the pay scale so it won't change unless new contract or you fly more. Also take home isn't the % as now you're into the AMT and can't deduct anything.

FlyingPirate
07-15-2017, 12:41 PM
I'm on the younger side and was hired this year. Using a spreadsheet provided to me in class with conservative growth; I have a projected lifetime earnings of 6.6m. with over 7m in my retirement. That's all assuming currently pay rates and retirement contributions. Fwiw.


ZapBrannigan
07-15-2017, 12:49 PM
Trying to figure out why years 4-9 you show the same figure?


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flyguy81
07-15-2017, 02:40 PM
By yr 5 a new hire can make $200k pretty much just flying his line.

SkyNation
07-15-2017, 03:00 PM
Trying to figure out why years 4-9 you show the same figure?


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hmmm. Dunno. Got from buddy, he said 'I'm just gonna do a 3 day every week, nothing extra.' I think he was trying to be very conservative

ZapBrannigan
07-15-2017, 03:17 PM
hmmm. Dunno. Got from buddy, he said 'I'm just gonna do a 3 day every week, nothing extra.' I think he was trying to be very conservative


Ok, let's look at 100 TFP per month. You could do that easily flying 3 days a week without even trying.

Year 4: $123.23 = $147,876
Year 5: $139.04 = $166,848
Year 6: $149.45 = $179,340
Year 7: $158.03 = $189,636
Year 8: $162.18 = $194,616
Year 9: $164.01 = $196,812


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ANGFlight81
07-15-2017, 05:31 PM
I think I did right around $110k year 1 (mostly on old contract). Picked up something once a month.

This year averaging 14-16 days off a month and will do 150-160k.

So, I'd say he's being very conservative.

RJSAviator76
07-15-2017, 09:35 PM
Ok, let's look at 100 TFP per month. You could do that easily flying 3 days a week without even trying.

Year 4: $123.23 = $147,876
Year 5: $139.04 = $166,848
Year 6: $149.45 = $179,340
Year 7: $158.03 = $189,636
Year 8: $162.18 = $194,616
Year 9: $164.01 = $196,812


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These numbers are probably as close to minimum pay here as you can be. Bear in mind, this is also regular pay only and does not include B-plan contribution. If you want more accurate numbers, add 13.4% for 2017, 14.2% for 2018, 15% for 2019 onwards for your B-plan numbers. These numbers are pre-defined. Profit Share is a guessing game, but for 2016, it was 13.2% of your gross. The year before, I believe it was 15.6%. It's been much lower before during lean years, so your guess is as good as any.

Going back to the numbers above, also keep in mind that even being the laziest pilot here, you'll still get re-routed or JA'd or you'll overfly or simply have a monthly overlap throwing those numbers upward.

Just for comparison... as a 2nd year FO now that picks up, I'm on track to finish 2017 at around 170-173k in regular pay before adding B-plan contribution or profit sharing. This may be useful to someone like your friend who's older and perhaps needing to pad his retirement account.

SkyNation
07-15-2017, 10:03 PM
ok great info everyone! I clarified with my buddy. Mind you, he's just started, so he's WAGin' this. His friend is a 3.5 year, told him he'll make 160k this year just flying his line, doing the min possible.

thanks again!

Flyarcticcat
07-23-2017, 12:56 PM
Ok, let's look at 100 TFP per month. You could do that easily flying 3 days a week without even trying.

Year 4: $123.23 = $147,876
Year 5: $139.04 = $166,848
Year 6: $149.45 = $179,340
Year 7: $158.03 = $189,636
Year 8: $162.18 = $194,616
Year 9: $164.01 = $196,812


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Those numbers matched my first nine years +/- 5K. Not including retro pay, profitsharing

SkyNation
07-23-2017, 02:54 PM
Those numbers matched my first nine years +/- 5K. Not including retro pay, profitsharing


did you mostly just do a 3 day each week, nothing extra? Lotsa days off?

KINEAvTECH92
11-14-2017, 10:13 AM
I'm new to all of this retirement stuff, so please excuse my lack of knowledge. But 7mil in you're retirement? That seems outrageously high! Not in a bad way though...I'm just entering flight school and some of my calculations I've done have shown about 2.5-3mil in retirement. But 7? Like I said I'm really new to this so any explanation would be great. Thanks!

KINEAvTECH92
11-14-2017, 10:37 AM
I'm on the younger side and was hired this year. Using a spreadsheet provided to me in class with conservative growth; I have a projected lifetime earnings of 6.6m. with over 7m in my retirement. That's all assuming currently pay rates and retirement contributions. Fwiw.


I tried to reply to this and my computer froze, sorry if you're getting it twice...How do you calculate 7mil in retirement? I'm still new to all of this 401k retirement stuff. Thanks!

SlipKid
11-14-2017, 10:52 AM
I'm new to all of this retirement stuff, so please excuse my lack of knowledge. But 7mil in you're retirement? That seems outrageously high! Not in a bad way though...I'm just entering flight school and some of my calculations I've done have shown about 2.5-3mil in retirement. But 7? Like I said I'm really new to this so any explanation would be great. Thanks!

I'd like to know too......

Maybe they used SWApA Math?

CA1900
11-14-2017, 11:07 AM
Compound interest is a powerful thing.

He said he's on the younger side, so let's figure a 30-year-old newhire who defers 10% of his income, plus the 15% (as of 1/1/19) company contribution. He'll have 35 years to build the account.

I don't have a spreadsheet so can't give you the specific math, but a $200,000 income over 35 years, with the above contributions, would have $6.5 Million in the account, assuming a 7% annual return according to this Bankrate 401k calculator (http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/401-k-retirement-calculator.aspx). 8% return would put it over $8 million.

barabek
11-14-2017, 11:46 AM
Compound interest is a powerful thing.

He said he's on the younger side, so let's figure a 30-year-old newhire who defers 10% of his income, plus the 15% (as of 1/1/19) company contribution. He'll have 35 years to build the account.

I don't have a spreadsheet so can't give you the specific math, but a $200,000 income over 35 years, with the above contributions, would have $6.5 Million in the account, assuming a 7% annual return according to this Bankrate 401k calculator (http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/401-k-retirement-calculator.aspx). 8% return would put it over $8 million.

Hmmm, 200k as an average? Maybe if you don't have a life and pick up everything you can. I'm here the first year, live in a base and it looks like my income will be around 70-75k first year. It will be a decade or more for me to get $200,000 (basically till I upgrade).

CA1900
11-14-2017, 12:15 PM
Hmmm, 200k as an average? Maybe if you don't have a life and pick up everything you can. I'm here the first year, live in a base and it looks like my income will be around 70-75k first year. It will be a decade or more for me to get $200,000 (basically till I upgrade).



I get that -- I'm in first year well. I said average, considering that a 30-year-old pilot hired today, upgrading in 13 years (just a guess), will enjoy 22 years of captain pay. I think $200k as an average salary over the career is a conservative estimate.

Consider that even at 88TFP per month, a 12+ year PIC at the end of this contract is making $259,395. The average over a 35-year career would thus be higher than $200K; I just picked it as a round number.

ANGFlight81
11-14-2017, 01:03 PM
Hmmm, 200k as an average? Maybe if you don't have a life and pick up everything you can. I'm here the first year, live in a base and it looks like my income will be around 70-75k first year. It will be a decade or more for me to get $200,000 (basically till I upgrade).

Wow. My first year on the old contract I averaged 14 days off a month and did north of 100k. Are you giving away everything?

flyguy81
11-14-2017, 01:57 PM
Hmmm, 200k as an average? Maybe if you don't have a life and pick up everything you can. I'm here the first year, live in a base and it looks like my income will be around 70-75k first year. It will be a decade or more for me to get $200,000 (basically till I upgrade).

If a new hire were to do a 110 avg on yr 5 pay (147.5 in 2019) and you can pull near $200k without counting per diem, profit sharing, etc.

I'm on 2nd yr, pick up a day trip or a 2 day a month. Usually end up with 14-16 off and live in base. I'm averaging 125/mo and will make around $160k this year without counting per diem or profit sharing.

barabek
11-14-2017, 02:12 PM
Wow. My first year on the old contract I averaged 14 days off a month and did north of 100k. Are you giving away everything?

Not at all, on the contrary, I pick up a turn or two a month at second year pay. Still, after considering first 2 months of training pay, month of IOE and "garbage" flying for min guarantee, then 6 months of reserve (in my base I can expect whole first year on reserve), I still add up to around 80k without per diem before taxes and all the monthly deductions.

EngineOut
11-14-2017, 02:18 PM
Not at all, on the contrary, I pick up a turn or two a month at second year pay. Still, after considering first 2 months of training pay, month of IOE and "garbage" flying for min guarantee, then 6 months of reserve (in my base I can expect whole first year on reserve), I still add up to around 80k without per diem before taxes and all the monthly deductions.

Which base would that be?

barabek
11-14-2017, 02:23 PM
Which base would that be?

PHX, but you could probably apply this to DEN, DAL and MCO as well.

Peacock
11-14-2017, 02:23 PM
Not at all, on the contrary, I pick up a turn or two a month at second year pay. Still, after considering first 2 months of training pay, month of IOE and "garbage" flying for min guarantee, then 6 months of reserve (in my base I can expect whole first year on reserve), I still add up to around 80k without per diem before taxes and all the monthly deductions.

Your last post said 70-75k. Now you say 80k not counting per diem, profit sharing, or presumably 401k matching. Seems like a sizable difference in compensation.

barabek
11-14-2017, 02:35 PM
Your last post said 70-75k. Now you say 80k not counting per diem, profit sharing, or presumably 401k matching. Seems like a sizable difference in compensation.

Yeah, 80 is what I get if I take an average 95 trips times first year pay and multiply by 12. 70-75 is personal estimate for my first year. I hope my math is wrong, but it doesn't seem to be. I still have few more months to go, so who knows, maybe I catch up. I try but there's not too much in open time nowadays and I see senior FOs fighting over turns bidding straight time.

ANGFlight81
11-14-2017, 02:40 PM
Yeah, 80 is what I get if I take an average 95 trips times first year pay and multiply by 12. 70-75 is personal estimate for my first year. I hope my hath is wrong, but it doesn't seem to be. I still have few more months to go, so who knows, maybe I catch up. I try but there's not too much in open time nowadays and I see senior FOs fighting over turns bidding straight time.

Interesting. I made 40k more than you and my first year TFP was roughly $50. Hmmmmmmm

Peacock
11-14-2017, 02:41 PM
Yeah, 80 is what I get if I take an average 95 trips times first year pay and multiply by 12. 70-75 is personal estimate for my first year. I hope my hath is wrong, but it doesn't seem to be. I still have few more months to go, so who knows, maybe I catch up. I try but there's not too much in open time nowadays and I see senior FOs fighting over turns bidding straight time.
Hopefully it will be easier in the spring/summer. I have also found it somewhat difficult to get open time since others are willing to bid straight pay

barabek
11-14-2017, 03:03 PM
Interesting. I made 40k more than you and my first year TFP was roughly $50. Hmmmmmmm

Good for you man! What was your average credit? According to my calculations you needed to credit over 180 TFPs per month on average. That's a lot of work. You must be a workoholic!

ANGFlight81
11-14-2017, 03:15 PM
Good for you man! What was your average credit? According to my calculations you needed to credit over 180 TFPs per month on average. That's a lot of work. You must be a workoholic!

Nope. If you read my above post I averaged 14 days off a month. Remember anything you pick up straight Time is paid at second year rates. Given your math though and contradictions youíre shooting holes in your own complaints...

flyguy81
11-14-2017, 03:33 PM
I did a 115 avg with all but a couple months under the old contract. I grossed around $87k last year. Had a couple months of training and a month and a half of 2nd yr pay. I know some that did more and I know some that did less.

Depending on what you pick up itíd be fairly easy to get over $100k your first year. Most of the people I know on rsv are hitting 110-120 without picking anything up.

barabek
11-14-2017, 03:49 PM
Nope. If you read my above post I averaged 14 days off a month. Remember anything you pick up straight Time is paid at second year rates. Given your math though and contradictions youíre shooting holes in your own complaints...

First of all I'm not complaining. I'm not counting per diem or 401k contributions, just pay. I'm on reserve, and probably will be till the end of my probation. 15 days off is what I start with. I don't fly too much on reserve nowadays, life is good in that matter. Summer was busier but I had to commute. Now I can't complain because I get flying maybe 7-9 days a month. Picking up is almost impossible because the most open time is over the weekends when I'm on reserve. Weekday open time gets picked up by hungry vultures. Maybe when you were in your first year it was different. I'm not attacking you, just curious how you made 110 grand at 50/tfp. What was your second year pay? Again, no attacks, just legitimate questions. I think I'm intelligent enough to read my pay stubs, but if you doubt me, that's your problem. Numbers don't lie (wish they would in this case). Still, not complaining, I'm much better off than in the left seat at a regional, plus I know it gets better after probation. Peace

Burton78
11-14-2017, 04:25 PM
First of all I'm not complaining. I'm not counting per diem or 401k contributions, just pay. I'm on reserve, and probably will be till the end of my probation. 15 days off is what I start with. I don't fly too much on reserve nowadays, life is good in that matter. Summer was busier but I had to commute. Now I can't complain because I get flying maybe 7-9 days a month. Picking up is almost impossible because the most open time is over the weekends when I'm on reserve. Weekday open time gets picked up by hungry vultures. Maybe when you were in your first year it was different. I'm not attacking you, just curious how you made 110 grand at 50/tfp. What was your second year pay? Again, no attacks, just legitimate questions. I think I'm intelligent enough to read my pay stubs, but if you doubt me, that's your problem. Numbers don't lie (wish they would in this case). Still, not complaining, I'm much better off than in the left seat at a regional, plus I know it gets better after probation. Peace



Sounds like the dynamic of reserve has shifted quite a bit if you're only flying 7-9 days a month. When I was on reserve a few years ago I was happily abused (as a commuter). I rarely went more than 2 days a month with out being used. 110-130 TFP a month was pretty common for me without picking anything up.


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RJSAviator76
11-14-2017, 04:43 PM
First of all I'm not complaining. I'm not counting per diem or 401k contributions, just pay. I'm on reserve, and probably will be till the end of my probation. 15 days off is what I start with. I don't fly too much on reserve nowadays, life is good in that matter. Summer was busier but I had to commute. Now I can't complain because I get flying maybe 7-9 days a month. Picking up is almost impossible because the most open time is over the weekends when I'm on reserve. Weekday open time gets picked up by hungry vultures. Maybe when you were in your first year it was different. I'm not attacking you, just curious how you made 110 grand at 50/tfp. What was your second year pay? Again, no attacks, just legitimate questions. I think I'm intelligent enough to read my pay stubs, but if you doubt me, that's your problem. Numbers don't lie (wish they would in this case). Still, not complaining, I'm much better off than in the left seat at a regional, plus I know it gets better after probation. Peace


None of us are including 401k, per diem or PS in calculations.

Letís work this backwards.

Youíre saying youíre on track to make 80k your first year. Averaged out over the year, thatís roughly 96 TFP average at first year rate. Is that what youíre averaging?

In my first year, I was banging out 150+ TFP per month. My best probie month was 179 TFP, my worst around 140 TFP. I hit 175 TFP one month on reserve no less, and I wasnít the highest time guy in my class either!

Have you read our contract and have you learned how the caps work? Or overlap and how you can really turn it to work for you with regards to getting second year rate? If youíre not flying on your reserve blocks, you should be cleaning house!

Beans
11-14-2017, 05:30 PM
did you mostly just do a 3 day each week, nothing extra? Lotsa days off?

No, some of these guys are blowing smoke. You will not have 7 million in retirement. That is so beyond resonable its crazy. Plus guys are not just doing a 3 day trip a week and getting 100 TFP. Guys at this company have to work for the money period. Its how our contract is set up period. So if someone tells you they are consistantly getting 100 TFP for working 12 days and thats the norm they are filling you with bs.

Beans
11-14-2017, 05:32 PM
None of us are including 401k, per diem or PS in calculations.

Letís work this backwards.

Youíre saying youíre on track to make 80k your first year. Averaged out over the year, thatís roughly 96 TFP average at first year rate. Is that what youíre averaging?

In my first year, I was banging out 150+ TFP per month. My best probie month was 179 TFP, my worst around 140 TFP. I hit 175 TFP one month on reserve no less, and I wasnít the highest time guy in my class either!

Have you read our contract and have you learned how the caps work? Or overlap and how you can really turn it to work for you with regards to getting second year rate? If youíre not flying on your reserve blocks, you should be cleaning house!

Yeh you are working your tail off to do this period. Its no diffrent than any other major who has draft, green slip trips, etc

ANGFlight81
11-14-2017, 06:15 PM
No, some of these guys are blowing smoke. You will not have 7 million in retirement. That is so beyond resonable its crazy. Plus guys are not just doing a 3 day trip a week and getting 100 TFP. Guys at this company have to work for the money period. Its how our contract is set up period. So if someone tells you they are consistantly getting 100 TFP for working 12 days and thats the norm they are filling you with bs.

Really? Who do you work for? BS flag here amigo. You have no frame of reference.

Flame, carry-on

ANGFlight81
11-14-2017, 06:16 PM
Beans, why donít you go back to your forum that applies to your airline.

Seriously dude?

ANGFlight81
11-14-2017, 06:22 PM
PS, Beans just looked. 98 TFP this month and 18 off...

This is what I was AWARDED...

flyguy81
11-14-2017, 06:41 PM
PS, Beans just looked. 98 TFP this month and 18 off...

This is what I was AWARDED...

My dec is 97 and 19 off. And Iím Jr.

barabek
11-14-2017, 07:13 PM
None of us are including 401k, per diem or PS in calculations.

Letís work this backwards.

Youíre saying youíre on track to make 80k your first year. Averaged out over the year, thatís roughly 96 TFP average at first year rate. Is that what youíre averaging?

In my first year, I was banging out 150+ TFP per month. My best probie month was 179 TFP, my worst around 140 TFP. I hit 175 TFP one month on reserve no less, and I wasnít the highest time guy in my class either!

Have you read our contract and have you learned how the caps work? Or overlap and how you can really turn it to work for you with regards to getting second year rate? If youíre not flying on your reserve blocks, you should be cleaning house!

Ok, I thought I would stop this conversation but I feel I should respond. I don't know when you were hired. Right now we are pretty well staffed on FOs. Some bases have 30+ unused reserves a day. I was used 7 times in October (not complaining). I know of people being used 3 days a month! Open time is picked dry. I try to bid at whatever I can. I have 0 chance at premium, so I bid straight, mostly reserve. I like reserve because I sit at home and don't get called. The problem is I can't get open time reserve, or anything for that matter. Very senior FOs pick it up all the time. My record credit was 128 TFP with 11 days off. It involved a training event, and I got 2 turns out of open time at 2nd year pay. Having 150 trips in a month sounds like a fantasy for a new hire nowadays. Do you realize we hired 900 FOs this year and reduced number of aircraft? Next year we will get another 800+ with maybe 30-40 new planes. Flying is not as abundant as you remember, at least not as easy to achieve for a new hire. Also some bases are better that others for getting open time. Adding your family constraints (little kids and wife working) and here I am with average 95 tfp a month. Can I do better? Probably. Is it worth my family time and hassle? I don't think so. I feel like there is very little room for me to increase my earnings without sacrificing too much. Again, it may be a different time, or maybe I "haven't read our contract and haven't learned how the caps worked"...

utahpilot
11-14-2017, 08:39 PM
Or overlap and how you can really turn it to work for you with regards to getting second year rate?

please expand on this overlap into 2nd year pay thing

Proximity
11-15-2017, 02:13 AM
Ok, I thought I would stop this conversation but I feel I should respond.

Why don't you PM him and ask him his employee number so you can look at his board. I promise you that RJSAviator76 TFPs totals are correct. He's probably not much more senior then you. He does have the advantage of being beyond 1st year, so anything from TTGA pays the same as straight open time.

For the last six weeks the open time market has been pretty dry, but I still made 129 in October and am on track for 125 in November. I'm actually having some of my best months ever when it comes to days worked/block vs. pay due to the low reserve utilization. There is still flying out there, there's plenty in TTGA, I still see reserves being used (their assignments not taken by extra fly), and unawarded rsv blocks in open time. However, things will return to normal soon, flying will pick up going into the holidays and we will go from 700ish airplanes today to 750 by the end of 2018. This is just a temporary lull due to the classic retirements.

Typhoondiver
11-15-2017, 02:44 AM
First of all I'm not complaining. I'm not counting per diem or 401k contributions, just pay. I'm on reserve, and probably will be till the end of my probation. 15 days off is what I start with. I don't fly too much on reserve nowadays, life is good in that matter. Summer was busier but I had to commute. Now I can't complain because I get flying maybe 7-9 days a month. Picking up is almost impossible because the most open time is over the weekends when I'm on reserve. Weekday open time gets picked up by hungry vultures. Maybe when you were in your first year it was different. I'm not attacking you, just curious how you made 110 grand at 50/tfp. What was your second year pay? Again, no attacks, just legitimate questions. I think I'm intelligent enough to read my pay stubs, but if you doubt me, that's your problem. Numbers don't lie (wish they would in this case). Still, not complaining, I'm much better off than in the left seat at a regional, plus I know it gets better after probation. Peace
Your assessment seems very reasonable for Phoenix. I have tried premium as well outside of the summer, and you are right. Weekday stuff gets picked up
straight by senior guys once they are over the cap. My buddy is in Denver and has more luck there. I caveat this with me not working weekends which you are in the same boat, because you are on reserve then. I chose not to and highly appreciate that I can do that after 2 years. Working 12 days and crediting 100 tfp means averaging more than 8 tfp per day. You can do that more easily if you fly on the weekend. It gets better once you get a blank line. But I disagree with the posts that the money is easily made. Flying a 24.90tfp paying three day is work, as it means one 11 hour duty day followed by a short overnight and so on. It blocks 21 hours...
Hang in there, because it gets better quickly as seniority improves!

RJSAviator76
11-15-2017, 03:48 AM
please expand on this overlap into 2nd year pay thing


ď... the original line total is defined as: the value of all flying and non-fly events on the line after the completion of the vacation overlap, month to month overlap and recurrent training adjustments, excluding any MOT, DOT, POT, SNOT,VPF, and JA carried in from the previous month. ď

All in the Contract.

FlyingPirate
11-15-2017, 06:21 AM
Looks like I need to explain my comment a little bit more. Please keep in mind that my intent is to not make this a “look at how much money I can make” post. I just want to inform those looking in from the outside that SWA is a very good option over the Legacy carriers. I hope it also serves as a reminder to the younger guys out there that saving early is your best option. Here goes.

Take a look at the attached spreadsheet. These number are on the conservative side.

1) They are based on last year’s pay rates. We will continue to see our pay go up for the next 4 years and over the course of my 35 year career I will likely see more pay raises.

2) Based on 100 TFP a month. My experience says that is based on if you basically only fly your line. Most don’t and are able to make extra TFP without trying. (Ie. move up pay, vacation drops, etc.)

3) 12 year upgrade. I don’t have a crystal ball but based on the direction this industry is going Incan assume it will be fewer than 12 years to upgrade.

Some other things to consider:

1) I started at age 29. The spreadsheet only shows starting at 31.
2) Like everyone else I began working at SWA with money in other retirement accounts.
3) I max out 2 IRA accounts (1 for the wife and one for me) which alone should yield 1.4 mil. If your making this kind of money anyone can afford it.
4) Max out your contributions. The spreadsheet shows maxing out at close to upgrade time most will and should do it as soon as they can afford to.


So now, look at the spreadsheet: Let’s take a look at the 5% return column for retirement (I’m an optimistic guy) equates to 4.4 Mil.

Now look at the profit sharing: This money can be placed in Top Hat accounts if you max out your 401k. Again 5% return 1.4 Mil.

Put it all together and what do you get? 7.2 Milllion. Again, assume pay doesn’t go up for 35 years. I feel quite confident that number will actually be higher.

I’m happy to provide the spreadsheet to anyone who wants to plug in their own numbers, just PM me.

Now, Fire away..... :o

ANGFlight81
11-15-2017, 06:52 AM
FlyingPirate, you are right. Iím slightly older than you and actually met with a financial advisor and we can up with similar numbers.

What you have on this thread is a few ďhatersĒ stirring the pot.

Beans, so where do you work?

BTW, in November average days off system wide was roughly 17.25 days and an average credit of 97tfp.

flysocal77
11-15-2017, 07:05 AM
Itís hard to predict upgrade times. In fact one of my interview questions was how I felt about a 15 year upgrade. Iím at 80% in 3.5 and flew with a captain last week thatís at 60% seniority. There was a lull in hiring after I was hired so the growth has occurred mostly in the last 2.5 years. Itís possible I could be looking at a sub 7 year upgrade but thatís using simple math and assuming we keep hiring at this rate for another 3. I wouldnít be surprised to see it dip to 6 years if we get a couple more bases and ETOPS certification since I believe STL and LAX will be junior and I think we will have a higher rate of those choosing to remain as FOs. Career earning jumps big time with the upgrade and imo life on the line is the same regardless of seniority. I believe those hired 2013-now will be riding a nice 5 year wave with upgrades less than 10.

ZapBrannigan
11-15-2017, 09:53 AM
Eventually hiring will drop down to the level required to replace attrition. Iím betting around 10,000 total pilots but thatís just a wag.


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bitatasg
11-15-2017, 10:43 AM
Eventually hiring will drop down to the level required to replace attrition. Iím betting around 10,000 total pilots but thatís just a wag.


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My WAG is 12,000

ANGFlight81
11-15-2017, 10:47 AM
My WAG is 12,000


Lol...we all know what they say about opinions 😉

Bottom line exciting time to be here.

Beans, where are ya buddy?

dash8driver
11-15-2017, 12:44 PM
Eventually hiring will drop down to the level required to replace attrition. Iím betting around 10,000 total pilots but thatís just a wag.


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Rocky did say 10,000 is what theyíre shooting for on interview day, FWIW

bitatasg
11-15-2017, 02:49 PM
Have yaíll seen the new training center? The place is incredible and huge. 12,000 pilots is a conservative estimate.

flysocal77
11-15-2017, 03:41 PM
Have yaíll seen the new training center? The place is incredible and huge. 12,000 pilots is a conservative estimate.

I agree this growth wonít last forever but 12K Pilots in the next 4-5 wonít surprise me. This has been suggested be upper management a couple times. The key is organic growth, beat up Hawaiian for a while, wait for the next economic downturn and buy them. Then take over the pacific.

RJSAviator76
11-15-2017, 03:53 PM
I agree this growth wonít last forever but 12K Pilots in the next 4-5 wonít surprise me. This has been suggested be upper management a couple times. The key is organic growth, beat up Hawaiian for a while, wait for the next economic downturn and buy them. Then take over the pacific.

Using the 60% on the master seniority list as a rough estimate, that'd put those of us hired in 2014-current timeframe into roughly a 6-year upgrade window assuming one would want the first possible upgrade.

Our retirements start their upward spike in 2023. However, lots can change between now and then, including raising the retirement age yet again.

ZapBrannigan
11-15-2017, 03:59 PM
Using the 60% on the master seniority list as a rough estimate, that'd put those of us hired in 2014-current timeframe into roughly a 6-year upgrade window assuming one would want the first possible upgrade.


We are at year 4 and coming up on 80%. Youíre anticipating another 20%-25% movement in just 2 years?

Iím projecting right at 10 years unless they raise the retirement age again or thereís another merger.


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e6bpilot
11-15-2017, 04:48 PM
We are at year 4 and coming up on 80%. Youíre anticipating another 20%-25% movement in just 2 years?

Iím projecting right at 10 years unless they raise the retirement age again or thereís another merger.


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Your math checks with mine too. 10 year upgrade plus or minus 18 months.

RJSAviator76
11-15-2017, 05:23 PM
We are at year 4 and coming up on 80%. You’re anticipating another 20%-25% movement in just 2 years?

I’m projecting right at 10 years unless they raise the retirement age again or there’s another merger.


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I keep hearing the number 12,000 pilots on the property by 2022, so let's go with that. Using SWAPA's seniority sneak peak during that timeframe, we'll have roughly 600 pilots retire just from Age 65.

Rough numbers... we have 9000 pilots on the seniority list. To reach 12,000 by 2022 and accounting only for mandatory retirements, we need to hire roughly 3,600 pilots to reach that number. Spread over the next 4 years, that's roughly 900 new pilots per year.

So at this point on Dec 31, 2021, where do you fall on the seniority list? Early 2016 hires would fall into the 59-61% range in 6 years, and that's currently junior captain.

As you say, another merger or Age 67 or other factors could shift that dramatically... but if we could accurately predict such events, I know I'd be a very rich man playing with stock options. :D

Zap and e6, how do you come up with 10 years?

PropCop
11-15-2017, 05:53 PM
Rocky did say 10,000 is what theyíre shooting for on interview day, FWIW

Dash,

On my interview day, Rocky stated 12,000 was the goal within about 5 years.....

at6d
11-15-2017, 06:37 PM
I think the ten years number is the current conservative guess based on current standings. Every ďjuniorĒ captain Iíve flown with has upgraded at ten years.

Will it come down? Sure. How soon? How much? Nobody can answer that with a solid number.

Iím planning ten years because thatís still a solid estimate based on real numbers.

flyguy81
11-15-2017, 07:13 PM
Fwiw...at exactly 2 yrs on property Iím at 85%. Iíll prob defer until I can drive to work. No desire to commute even for the pay raise...Iíd rather sit rsv at home.

Part of the reason itís 10 yrs now is you had no real hiring for 5 years and a bunch of FOís with similar seniority thrown together due to the merger. Once we get past the 2008 hires, itíll drop pretty rapidly assuming retirement age doesnít move and hiring keeps up.

Proximity
11-15-2017, 07:57 PM
I think it's almost a cult thing here to be really pessimistic about upgrades. I get it, after the 2008 recession and the AT merger, movement slowed way down. There is a cohort of FOs who are on the MSL right after the last merger pilot who experienced very slow growth and will unfortunately have long upgrades.

However, for those hired in the current boom, I think there is reason to be optimistic. Things are happening here. SWA has had 700ish airplanes for as long as anyone can seem to remember. However, next year we should have 50 more airframes. Additionally the new training center also suggests expansion.

If they continue to hire 750+ each year, the upgrade time will have to drop. From now until end of 2022, there are 787 retirements. If we do go to 12,000 pilots, anyone under 8000 today on the MSL could have have a opportunity to upgrade by then. Starting in 2023 retirements starting increasing, creating additional movement.

I'm going to be optimistic and predict by 2022-2023 upgrade time will be more like 6-7 years then 10 years.

WHACKMASTER
11-16-2017, 04:14 AM
I agree this growth wonít last forever but 12K Pilots in the next 4-5 wonít surprise me. This has been suggested be upper management a couple times. The key is organic growth, beat up Hawaiian for a while, wait for the next economic downturn and buy them. Then take over the pacific.

Bahahahaha. Someone from management actually verbalized the Hawaiian/Pacific part or the 12K part?

Beans
11-16-2017, 06:12 AM
Bahahahaha. Someone from management actually verbalized the Hawaiian/Pacific part or the 12K part?

I know haha. So SW wants 12k total in the next 5 years and United and Delta wants 1k-1.2k each year for the next 5-7 years. AA wants 1k a year. FedEx wants 500 a year, UPS 300 a year. Have we not learned our lesson about this type of stuff. A market down turn which is inevetable will stagnate the oversaturated (by that time) airline industry. Indigo just ordered 450 airplanes of which 150ish will go to Frontier. Does anyone besides myself see a bubble occuring. Every one is trying to outgrow the competition and the ULCC are making a huge push with massive AC orders as they gobble market share. Dont get me wrong im all for optimism, but realistic optimism. Im with the 10 year updrade guess crowd and thats assuming you will take reserve in a Jr base!

Beans
11-16-2017, 06:26 AM
I agree this growth wonít last forever but 12K Pilots in the next 4-5 wonít surprise me. This has been suggested be upper management a couple times. The key is organic growth, beat up Hawaiian for a while, wait for the next economic downturn and buy them. Then take over the pacific.

The only reason they would go around blabbing this is to keep people from bailing like they have been doing for the last 2 years. I personally know around 15 guys with more than 3 years of seniority that have left in the last year. We are loosing around 15% of new hires a year. Thats what they want to stop.

flyguy81
11-16-2017, 06:52 AM
The only reason they would go around blabbing this is to keep people from bailing like they have been doing for the last 2 years. I personally know around 15 guys with more than 3 years of seniority that have left in the last year. We are loosing around 15% of new hires a year. Thats what they want to stop.

According to the union blast we're not. Only 32 probies have left in the last year. That's around 4% loss of new hires.

e6bpilot
11-16-2017, 07:52 AM
We have largely stopped bleeding new hire FOs according to the union blast and a personal conversation with a rep who had they numbers. There are still some making lateral moves to better situations, but it isnít like during 2016.
Look, I love the optimism, but I am a realist. This hiring pace isnít sustainable. Gary Kelly and Southwest like to position themselves to make money in the boom times and pull back and survive the bust times. The bust is coming. Anyone who reads deeper than USA Today on the economy knows it. We are in an unprecedented bull market that is being propped up by low interest rates and optimism. We have low cost carriers nipping at our heels and moving in to our territory. There are huge headwinds ahead. Thankfully, this company is actually worried about that and is well positioned to handle it, but it will have an effect on this pilot group.
The training center always inflates the numbers to create optimism and feed the rumor mill. I get it, I have bought into it too. Not any more. Take a look at the industry over boom and bust cycles, and even SWA. Zap and I got hired right after AirTran started classes. Do you think we saw a lot of movement in the next two years? I sat at 98 percent system seniority the whole time.
As for my cyphering to figure out my upgrade date, I used myseniority (thanks to the dude who runs that joint) and plugged in 4 percent growth a year, which is a fairly realistic average. Shockingly, it came out to right around 10 years, maybe a little less if I take first available (which I wonít).

RJSAviator76
11-16-2017, 09:26 AM
For those of us hired in 2016, the movement has been crazy... January 2016 hire is now sitting at 85% system seniority. Last class of 2016 plug, still on probation, is at 91% system seniority.

Itíll be interesting to see how this plays out in the end...


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WHACKMASTER
11-16-2017, 09:27 AM
For those of us hired in 2016, the movement has been crazy... January 2016 hire is now sitting at 85% system seniority. Last class of 2016 plug, still on probation, is at 91% system seniority.

Itíll be interesting to see how this plays out in the end...


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Downturn in the economy and SWA buying Frontier or Spirit.

RJSAviator76
11-16-2017, 09:28 AM
Downturn in the economy and SWA buying Frontier or Spirit.


What, no Hawaiian? :D

WHACKMASTER
11-16-2017, 09:32 AM
Not seeing that, but wth do I know?

flyguy81
11-16-2017, 11:34 AM
Downturn in the economy and SWA buying Frontier or Spirit.

Frontier and Spirit are my best guess for the next merger...and not with SWA. Nearly identical business models and fleets. Pretty close to the same size with not a lot of overlap.

e6bpilot
11-16-2017, 11:38 AM
I hear a lot of merger talk around here and I donít buy it. Airlines are way too expensive right now. AirTran was a bargain. Look at the market cap on Spirit and Frontier and add a premium on top of that. Do you really think swa would pay that? No way.
They would rather coexist and carve out their market share by competing on product and being the ďanti-SpiritĒ by not nickel and diming.

Beans
11-16-2017, 12:52 PM
We have largely stopped bleeding new hire FOs according to the union blast and a personal conversation with a rep who had they numbers. There are still some making lateral moves to better situations, but it isnít like during 2016.
Look, I love the optimism, but I am a realist. This hiring pace isnít sustainable. Gary Kelly and Southwest like to position themselves to make money in the boom times and pull back and survive the bust times. The bust is coming. Anyone who reads deeper than USA Today on the economy knows it. We are in an unprecedented bull market that is being propped up by low interest rates and optimism. We have low cost carriers nipping at our heels and moving in to our territory. There are huge headwinds ahead. Thankfully, this company is actually worried about that and is well positioned to handle it, but it will have an effect on this pilot group.
The training center always inflates the numbers to create optimism and feed the rumor mill. I get it, I have bought into it too. Not any more. Take a look at the industry over boom and bust cycles, and even SWA. Zap and I got hired right after AirTran started classes. Do you think we saw a lot of movement in the next two years? I sat at 98 percent system seniority the whole time.
As for my cyphering to figure out my upgrade date, I used myseniority (thanks to the dude who runs that joint) and plugged in 4 percent growth a year, which is a fairly realistic average. Shockingly, it came out to right around 10 years, maybe a little less if I take first available (which I wonít).

Bingo!! As my post said above this growth is not sustainable for the long term period! This industry is doing what it has done before and will do again. Our economy has a huge bubble and it will correct itself. So if your looking at current hiring and growth and expecting that for a while and that it will hold for the long term you are dreaming.

RJSAviator76
11-16-2017, 01:38 PM
Speaking of training centers, any guesses on why we dropped 150 million on a new training center and all these additional sim bays?

Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??! :confused:

at6d
11-16-2017, 01:48 PM
Probably like a cattle farmer that made a good profit...and buys a new tractor to offset the taxes.

ZapBrannigan
11-16-2017, 04:00 PM
Speaking of training centers, any guesses on why we dropped 150 million on a new training center and all these additional sim bays?

Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??! :confused:



That is the one thing that has me questioning my usual pessimism.

But I agree that we are in a bubble. My concern is that we may be going down the path of the 1990s legacy ďhire till you furlough, then furlough till you hireĒ model. A lot of AirTran folks at headquarters now, and we should remember that in October of 1998 AirTran is the company that thought that a 4 month furlough was a smart financial decision...


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Name User
11-16-2017, 04:39 PM
I hear a lot of merger talk around here and I don’t buy it. Airlines are way too expensive right now. AirTran was a bargain. Look at the market cap on Spirit and Frontier and add a premium on top of that. Do you really think swa would pay that? No way.
They would rather coexist and carve out their market share by competing on product and being the “anti-Spirit” by not nickel and diming.

Spirit market cap is $2.5b but they have $1b in the bank so really $1.5b net.

Pretty cheap actually for a carrier making $350m a yr in profit with 20% annual growth.

Frontier isn't traded they are a private company. No market cap.

Beans
11-16-2017, 04:49 PM
Speaking of training centers, any guesses on why we dropped 150 million on a new training center and all these additional sim bays?

Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??! :confused:

Building a new training center means nothing. Its just consolidating and upgrading as well as matching new sims for the newer avionics 737. Hell the old house was old!! 130 million is nothing for a corprate building these days

Burton78
11-16-2017, 05:10 PM
Building a new training center means nothing. Its just consolidating and upgrading as well as matching new sims for the newer avionics 737. Hell the old house was old!! 130 million is nothing for a corprate building these days


This place is slowly devolving towards Flightinfo.com. Sad.


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hoover
11-16-2017, 05:36 PM
I thought the reason for the new training center is that it's category 5 tornado rated. Also they were putting a backup NOC in there for the same reason. I think they saw that a big tornado could shut down the whole airline permanently.
Rumor is they're building yet another NOC 100 miles away for the same reason.
As to the 6 empty bay.... I put a beer on 777 or 797

Skyward
11-16-2017, 07:21 PM
Speaking of training centers, any guesses on why we dropped 150 million on a new training center and all these additional sim bays?

Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??! :confused:

Well, world domination is the stated goal :D

Need lots of sims bays for that!

mojo6911
11-22-2017, 07:39 AM
Compound interest is a powerful thing.

He said he's on the younger side, so let's figure a 30-year-old newhire who defers 10% of his income, plus the 15% (as of 1/1/19) company contribution. He'll have 35 years to build the account.

I don't have a spreadsheet so can't give you the specific math, but a $200,000 income over 35 years, with the above contributions, would have $6.5 Million in the account, assuming a 7% annual return according to this Bankrate 401k calculator (http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/401-k-retirement-calculator.aspx). 8% return would put it over $8 million.

Yeah, but you can't just average out 8% over the lifetime of the account. It doesn't work that way. Here's a simple example, assuming no contributions.

Lets say you have 100k, and the economy tanks, like 2008, and you get a 50% loss on the year. Now, let's say the economy rebounds in the next year and you earn 50%. Your average return is 0%, but your balance is only 75k. Compound interest works both ways.

Smooth at FL450
11-22-2017, 08:21 AM
Yeah, but you can't just average out 8% over the lifetime of the account. It doesn't work that way. Here's a simple example, assuming no contributions.

Lets say you have 100k, and the economy tanks, like 2008, and you get a 50% loss on the year. Now, let's say the economy rebounds in the next year and you earn 50%. Your average return is 0%, but your balance is only 75k. Compound interest works both ways.


Sure you can. Just don't make the "no contributions" assumption when there are dividends and interest being paid out, in addition to the 10% deferral and 15% company contributions. Dollar Cost Averaging on the way down makes that recovery much faster on the way back up. The S&P 500 has average lifetime returns of over 9%, which includes its dividends.

shoelu
12-11-2017, 01:03 PM
So if someone tells you they are consistantly getting 100 TFP for working 12 days and thats the norm they are filling you with bs.
January 2018 lines in all bases average 91TFP and over 18 days off. If you add 2-3 TFP to each trip through ELITT, you are very close to 100TFP and 12 days of work.......and that is in January! The summer months average 100+ TFP's and 18 days off. I don't think the statement is as flawed as you make it out to be.

WHACKMASTER
12-11-2017, 01:21 PM
January 2018 lines in all bases average 91TFP and over 18 days off. If you add 2-3 TFP to each trip through ELITT, you are very close to 100TFP and 12 days of work.......and that is in January! The summer months average 100+ TFP's and 18 days off. I don't think the statement is as flawed as you make it out to be.

If you look at his posting history heís commonly viewed as a troll, FYI.



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